January 29, 2008
Rudy's on a train to nowhere

Rudy Giuliani's disappointing performance in Florida has all but nailed the coffin shut on the New Yorker's presidential campaign.

That's what conventional wisdom states at any rate.

Giuliani has gotten a lot of guff for his unusual campaign strategy of entrenching in Florida and banking that he'd appeal to enough New York transplants to put him over the top and jump start his campaign in more liberal states.

The experts said this was bad and you know the experts can never be wrong because they have their names in graphics underneath their faces whenever they're shown on television.

Really he had little choice. Giuliani's support was always soft and was always prefaced with "well he might be the best candidate to beat Hillary". He was the second choice candidate or the one that "if we wind up with Rudy I guess he'll do alright."

Giuliani was never going to beat Huckabee/Romney in Iowa's corn/bible belt, or McCain in New Hampshire, or Michigan's favorite son Romney or win in South Carolina or Wyoming. When it came to pulling the trigger for Rudy over any of his more conservative opponents when the moment of truth came no Republicans in any of these aforementioned states were going to support him.

Getting less support than Ron Paul in most of these states was embarrassing but would a distant third or fourth really have been any different than a distant fifth or sixth?

Doubtful. No. So stop pretending like he had any other choice. If it weren't for John McCain's surprising resurgence a different hand might have been dealt tonight.

Giuliani's biggest mistake was probably being too honest about his campaign strategy. Instead of controlling damage in states he was going to lose anyway it just made him look wounded. Showing a bit of veracity in politics is often times, sadly, the wrong thing to do.

It is good and noble and honorable that he stuck to his guns (oops!!!) on positions that often put him at odds with the majority of the Republican Party. There was no Romney-like weaseling for America's Mayor when it came to changing his core beliefs to attract an interest group here or talk show host there.

Unfortunately he was just too moderate/liberal. Republicans might like his stances on national security or cutting taxes. They might even believe that he'll appoint Supreme Court judges who will be strict constructionists. But they would have gotten that from McCain, or Romney or Huckabee... or Thompson. And none of these candidates had the unsavory personal baggage that Giuliani brought with him.

Despite all this Giuliani didn't have to get out of the race. Super-Duper-Ooper Tuesday is still a week off and with the amount of politically weird things that have occurred this election cycle you don't know what scandal or disaster will pop up between now and then.

The talking heads are writing his political obituary though and there is the thought that he didn't want to be embarrassed by losing in New York and New Jersey. I guess we'll learn soon whether it was better for Giuliani to back John McCain now or stick around long enough to savage Mitt Romney during the next presidential debate. Talks are underway.

(Update) Minutes after this went up the AP just reported that Giuliani is already endorsing McCain. Past/present changed between doesn't/didn't on two paragraphs above.

Sing along: Long ago I suggested that the song "Rudy" performed by the progressive rock band Supertramp might be useful for some campaign.

Listening to it again one is startled how the lyrics of "Rudy" mirror the campaign strategy of Giuliani.

That goes to show the Delphic qualities of the muse Rick Davies and that his wisdom transcends the ages and is relevant even today.

Rudy thought that all good things comes to those that wait

But recently he could see that it may come too late.

Posted by DonWard at January 29, 2008 06:51 PM | Email This
Comments
1. I think like Fox 'speculated' tonite he will go to Calif and announce his support for McCain and that he is dropping out.

Posted by: Duffman on January 29, 2008 07:11 PM
2. Hummm... pretty quiet here tonight. All the ditto-heads must be in shock!

Posted by: Unkl on January 29, 2008 07:42 PM
3. After tonight it would appear to be an all Liberal ticket vying for the White House this November with "A weekend at Bernie's" McCain winning in Florida and likely getting key endorsements for the Republican nomination.......what choice does a real conservative have in this years election?

Answer: None !!

The American electorate will not put a guy that looks like he's already on death's door into the white house, so we might as well thank the RNC for it's lack of forward vision for handing over the Presidency to the Democrats in 2008 without so much as a fight. Way to go fellas- bang up job.

If it weren't for the appointments of SCOTUS judges, i'd sit home this year and not waste my time on this field of failures. But, Alas, I guess I'll hold my nose and vote for the Cadaver the RNC dug up in Arizona and propped up against the podium.

Posted by: Rick D on January 29, 2008 07:52 PM
4. Looks like BobDole II.

But hey -- Bob's still alive.

Posted by: Rey Smith on January 29, 2008 08:02 PM
5. If McCain gets the nod, I am voting for Obama. Then at least there will be "hope." (If Clinton gets the Dem ticket then I'll write-in daffy duck)

Any chance for SSI or MEDICARE reform with McCain? Hell no! Might as well sign up the "guest workers" as the cross the border.

It really sucks that this country continues to drive into the socialist pit. My generation is really going to pay for the folly of the current one (I'm in my late 20s).

I hope we can change before it is too late.

Posted by: bummed on January 29, 2008 08:18 PM
6. McCain or Hillary / Obama.

Is these really our choices?

Start putting your money in your mattress.

Posted by: Andy on January 29, 2008 08:30 PM
7. Even though I disagree with Rudy on gay marriage and abortion issues, i really did want to see him get some traction somehow, because he's got some leadership pluses and good accomplishments. Hope he finds a spot on the national scene.

Posted by: Michele on January 29, 2008 08:54 PM
8. I hope this story is wrong. I'd like to see him press on, but he would need to hit the campaign trail running. Rudy would be a good leader - if he pulls the plug, I'd say he would make a good Vice President of Cabinet member.

I urge you to not take everything the conservative media as gospel.
They want a conservative, like a Romney, who is more likely to lose to the Democrats- McCain is a centrist. Stop crying the crocodile tears, after 7 years of Bush - give us centrists a break !!

Posted by: KS on January 29, 2008 09:27 PM
9. Somebody here, on Nov 21, 2006, wrote the following:

"Rudi is pro-abortion, pro-gay marriage and pro-gun control.

His security creds ARE impressive, but excepting that one area, he out-democrats many democrats. And, as a result, he won't win in most primaries (Can you see the South going his way?) And, that's not to mention his personal baggage over the idiotic way he dealt with the mistress/divorce issue in the NY Mayor's Mansion"

Oh yeah.... that was me. Somebody responded: "Nope. Giuliani-Thune. Book it." I think we can turn the page now, can't we?

Posted by: Hinton on January 30, 2008 01:53 AM
10. Oh.... and when I quoted myself here, I left out the first line: "Rudy is toast."

Posted by: Hinton on January 30, 2008 01:55 AM
11. Maybe somebody will go back and dig up quotes from all the 'experts' who said 'McCain is toast.'

Posted by: russell garrard on January 30, 2008 07:43 AM
12. I will echo some of the sentiment of the above posters and offer my regret that Rudy has dropped out. Althought I disagree on his record of supporting homosexual marriage, abortion on demand and gun confiscation, I could, however, vote for Rudy. He has presidential leadership skills and would not hide under the bed when confronted by terrorists. I could also vote for Romney or Huckabee, albeit with reservations. I will, under no circumstances, vote for John McCain.

Posted by: Saltherring on January 30, 2008 07:50 AM
13. Rudy was dealt pocket aces and he got beat by a low connectors when McCain flopped a straight.

Seriously, Rudy looked like one of those "absolute win" Democrats like Ted Kennedy or Gary Hart (or Al Gore) who end up fizzling out before it even starts.

Mistakes? Tons! First of all -- aligning himself with Reagan and going on about the "Reagan Legacy". I'm not denying Reagan respect, but in an election where even the Republicans are calling for "change" why do you want to hitch your wagon to a guy from 3 decades ago?

9/11. It just didn't play. Reason: I think first of all, people have moved beyond it by the mile...Iraq is still an issue, but not 9/11. McCain came out early, before his successes and said that he wanted to increase troops in Iraq! Amazing! But it's all about "action" -- McCain takes risks and Giuliani wanted to coast in on things that happened 8 years ago -- again, people want Action (maybe not Change on the Republican side...but definitely Action).

What else? How about not putting up a fight by ignoring the little states? Nobody likes a priss -- and just going to majors without practicing in the AAA leagues is rare for even the best athelete.

Well, I stuck with Rudy until today -- because I don't like to be wishy washy and I picked him initially, but quite frankly, the way he ran the campaign, I'm glad he let me off the hook by losing!

PS...just ordered my McCain bumper sticker and sent the nubbin $20 donation.

PSS...separated at birth?

McCain

Newhart


Posted by: John Bailo on January 30, 2008 07:52 AM
14. If you think moonbats are ourtageous with their hatred of Bush, wait till McCain takes office.

Liberals will hate him because he's not a Democrap.

Republicans will hate him because he's not a conservative.

Posted by: Ragnar Danneskjold on January 30, 2008 10:50 AM
15. Here's the bumpersticker I expect to see:

"McCain 2008 - Dude, you're getting a Dole"

Posted by: Smoley on January 30, 2008 12:22 PM
16. "None of the Above"

Now, there's a candidate.

Posted by: Independent Voter on January 30, 2008 08:07 PM
17. By campaigning he would at least get some media coverage. Generally all the concession speeches are aired and the candidates talked about. Instead of the story being Guiliani competing in unfriendly territory and why that is, there was simply little to mention of him.

He should have made a go, kept himself in the news, and secured more fund raising. He probably could have even had a chance in places like New Hampshire, Nevada, and Michigan.

Posted by: Giffy on January 30, 2008 08:59 PM
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