If you thought the Clintons would have the reins of power snatched out of their hands by some upstart Illinois legislator without a fight, then you don't know anything about Hill and Bubba.
Although the results are just coming in it looks like Hillary Clinton (40%) has taken an early lead over Barack Obama (35%) in the Democratic Presidential Primary.
Republicans viewing these results can now laff and laff as they lay low.
It is fun to watch the national news as so-called experts, pollsters and political wonks eat crow once again when it comes to prognosticating - influencing - public opinion. Particularly when Obama was predicted to win in New Hampshire by double-digits; thus propelling him to victories in Nevada and South Carolina, which would create a tidal wave of support come Super-Duper-Ooper-Tuesday, filling his sails to an easy victory in the general election.
So sad. Obama will have to put-off selecting china patterns and drapery at the White House.
And in No Sheet Sherlock news John McCain (37%) is winning the Republican primary handing opponent Mitt Romney (28%) another embarrassing defeat. That's if you count two second-place finishes a defeat. Romney will have to head west now to make his "Last Stand at the Alamo" in Michigan; a state his father governed and where he chose to make his kick-off over a year ago.
Although McCain's victory will buoy the hopes of the old sailor one has to remember that he has bombed a lot of bridges with the GOP base. There are a lot of border fences to mend if the Arizona senator expects support from Republicans.
The New Hampshire results probably help Huckabee (12%) most of all, especially if Romney can be buffaloed into dropping out. More time has been bought for Rudy Giuliani (9%) who is banking on picking up states later in the game.
I've said for years that I would never vote for McCain, but Bill's reminded me over the last couple of days just what the Clintons are like. If Hillary's the nominee, I'll vote for whoever the Republicans put up. I just want those horrible people out of my life.
I'll bet a lot of conservatives will make the same decision eventually.
Posted by: ScottM on January 8, 2008 05:21 PMNow if Huckabee picks up SC that will leave Guiliani winless to date. Florida doesn't vote till the end of the month...long time to stay out of the headlines.
Romney looks like he's blowing his monetary wad early...will he have to call Ron Paul for a loan? =P
Could be a very interesting GOP Convention this year.
At this point, Clinton is up 40-34 in what may be the most stunning upset this cycle.
Clearly, FOX NEWS was right to keep Paul from darkening their doorway.
Posted by: Hinton on January 8, 2008 05:36 PMYou've got to be kidding. Republicans have nothing to laugh about if they are seeing a 70+ year old our of mainstream guy duking it with a born again wacko.
Posted by: Bill Anderson on January 8, 2008 06:00 PMI'll bet a lot of conservatives will make the same decision eventually." - ScottM
I won't. When will the GOP ever learn unless we teach them a lesson? Obviously they didn't listen in 2006. I will never vote for Ted Kennedy McCain or Tax & Pardon Huckabee. The GOP needs to be purged of its statist wing.
McCain and Giuliani will be fighting to decide who takes on the southerner Huck. If Giuliani can hang on in the big states he'll likely be the nominee. But, that is a big if. If R voters were going to coalesce around Romney they would have done so in IA and NH. That they didn't sends a big message to R voters nationwide.
Posted by: Not Declining on January 8, 2008 06:13 PMNew Hampshire is just a pimple on the epidermis of the US voter turnout anyhow, so the conclusions drawn today can look ridiculous in two weeks. Guiliani should not be counted out either certainly not any more than Romney.
Posted by: KS on January 8, 2008 06:20 PMMcCain is a true war hero. He was pushing for campaign finance reform when no one else would even lift a finger. He was the only candidate to truly support the surge strategy that is now working.
When I look at Romney, I just shake my head sadly. How could someone so crass, so arrogant and so apparently willing to twist the truth and spend his fortune on attack ads, think that he can buy the election?
As a lifelong conservative, and it greatly pains me to say this, I would much sooner vote for Hilliary than for Romney. And there is no way in this lifetime that I'm EVER going to vote for Mrs. Staged Emotional Moment.
Posted by: plane on January 8, 2008 07:32 PMMcCain's speech was so boooring. Very obviously read the whole thing, and nearly put me to sleep.
Oh, well, I guess we'll see how things shake out on February 10th. Super Tuesday will give us a better idea of who the nominees may turn out to be.
Posted by: katomar on January 8, 2008 07:36 PMIf someone this blog posted the same things under Stefan's name, not to hard I would think for say Eric or Don to do, I am pretty sure that not only would Stefan retract them and apologize, but never let it happen again. Its called being accountable and responsible for things said in your name.
At best this shows Paul as incompetent and rather dumb. More likely is that he actually believes what was written by him and under his name.
Posted by: Giffy on January 8, 2008 07:48 PMNot that either of you would, but lets say you posted the same kind of crap that came out in the RP newsletters. I would think that as soon as Stefan found out he would post a retraction, issue an apology, and probably dismiss you from posting. Thats the responsible thing ot do when something you don;t support goes out under your name.
The irresponsable thing is to let it go on for 20 or so years then say you didn't write it.
Again not saying either of you would post anything like that.
Posted by: Giffy on January 8, 2008 08:10 PM@21, I would say Thompson is done. He has barely been in the race for a while now. Guilliani, unlike Paul, did not compete in Iowa or NH. I think he is on the edge right now. If he loses a few more though he is done as well.
Posted by: Giffy on January 8, 2008 08:26 PMHis 8% definitly shows that he should have been included in the fox debate. Really 8% is amazing considering the people have been told for the last 8 months that he is unelectable and a longshot etc...
Posted by: travis on January 8, 2008 08:46 PMIn fact, his gawd-awful finish in NH and IA prove that he is, in fact, "unelectable," and calling Paul a "long shot" does a disservice to race horses everywhere.
The latest revelations about Paul's bigotry should make any of his supporters ashamed of the name.
Posted by: Hinton on January 8, 2008 08:55 PMI am not sure what to make of these results. Too early to say much. I will say that I just can't stand the thought of a Clinton in the White House and really hope she doesn't get the Dem nod. I think we have a better chance against Clinton, but I just don't even want the possibility of her winning. Does that make sense?
As for the revalations about Pauls supposed racism. They were revalations about 10 years ago and then 5 years ago and a year ago and 6 months ago and 3 months ago and a month ago. Get the picture? It is not news, it is trash that is thrown at him every once in a while.
He did not write them, they were published in a newsletter with his name, he took responsibility fired the author and moved on about 15 years ago.
Posted by: travis on January 8, 2008 09:34 PMI know Paulistinians feel very strongly that their guy is THE guy; but the fact is this: Paul polls at 5% or less NATIONALLY. Given his money, his results have been in the toilet from day one. His supporters here have ignorantly predicted fantastic finishes that prove either a lack of political knowledge or an overabundance of self-delusion.
Thompson's effort in NH was equally bad. But as long as he's polling in the double digits, he deserves a seat at the table.
Giuliani has done badly as well, but also polls at 17.7% NATIONALLY. And at this point, I believe that NATIONAL numbers should make the decision, and Paul has NEVER shown any strength nationally, and after his miserable efforts in Iowa and NH, it's unlikely he ever will.
His support by neo-nazis, white power groups and terrorist organizations will become even more evident as the days go on. And you have no more idea if he wrote that stuff or approved it, that went out under his name over... and over... and over again.... then you do about building a nuclear warhead.
That HE "moved on" doesn't mean a damned thing to me. WE haven't moved on, and this guy is going nowhere.
Posted by: Hinton on January 8, 2008 11:23 PMAnd to all you who read only snippets and buy hype, the Paul smear article at TNR has been retracted on account of bs. Read anything else he's ever written (I doubt you would) and you can clearly see that another writer is responsible. The left keeps bringing them up because he's the only Republican bringing them to task on their lies and failures. We Republicans are too busy playing follow the leader...
Posted by: Pete on January 9, 2008 12:39 AM"Corrections: This article originally misidentified ABC's Jake Tapper as Jack. In addition, Paul was a surgeon in the Air Force, not the Army, as the piece originally stated. It also stated that David Duke competed in the 1990 Louisiana Republican Senate primary. In fact, he was a Republican candidate in an open primary. The article has been corrected."
Posted by: pudge on January 9, 2008 12:56 AM