September 28, 2007
Boondoggle Update

The Seattle Weekly reports on the newly light-railified Rainier Valley. The best part?

the really big news for the previously scruffy thoroughfare is sidewalks. They might as well be paved with gold, they're so valuable, and rare, in many neighborhoods around here.
oddly, much of Seattle has never had sidewalks
Forty percent of Seattle streets lack full sidewalks on both sides of the road -- totaling 650 miles
Shouldn't basic infrastructure, like sidewalks, be taken care of before installing multi-billion frills like light rail?

The No on Prop. 1 campaign will be showing this commercial on TV:

And yes, the cost really is $157 billion, give or take

Posted by Stefan Sharkansky at September 28, 2007 04:03 PM | Email This
Comments
1. "This November, voters will have the opportunity to approve a tax package that is intended to make up for 40 years of failed efforts to improve transportation in our region. There has been a lack of political will to address critical transportation issues and congestion levels have continued to increase. Also on the ballot this fall will be Sound Transit 2 (ST 2) which extends public transit and light rail links throughout the region. I am supporting the RTID proposal which is all about investment in highways, bridges and local roads in a three county region. I see it as a once in a lifetime opportunity to ensure that the future will include transportation infrastructure sufficient to sustain our quality of life. The RTID and ST 2 proposals will be tied to one another on the ballot with a yes vote necessary on each in order for either to pass."

http://www.janehague.com/issues/transportation.html

Posted by: Richard Pope on September 28, 2007 04:38 PM
2. There are plenty of sober voters on the Eastside -- a large percentage of them with actual college degrees -- who are aware that Proposition One is a straight up-or-down vote on both packages (RTID & ST2). There is only ONE proposition to vote on, not TWO. Amazing that a former Republican elections director can't even get this one straight!

Posted by: Richard Pope on September 28, 2007 04:46 PM
3. maybe she's running low on brain cells lately but I heard Richard Pope on the Goldstein radio program and he sounded like a MoveOn.org member. And Goldstein sounds like a woman on the radio. Has he had a gender change operation?

Posted by: ajday on September 28, 2007 04:55 PM
4. Stefan, what's your point here? That we need practical civic priorities or that we need sidewalks on every street?

SIDEWALKS !! ??

The Mayor plans to pay for them with LIDS. No skin off his back. My stretch of street will cost ME more than $20,000. It will disturb my peace for a month, jam a rockery in my face and convert my street into a single lane.

Your house obviously was purchased by you AFTER sidewalks were already in place.

My part of the Thornton Creek drainage includes a tributary shown on the 1894 USGS topo sheet. Salmon baby. I'll fight sidewalks here with every trick in the Sierra Club book.

If your point was that we need priorities and sidewalks was just an unfortunate example, then you are excused.

Posted by: Bart Cannon on September 28, 2007 05:35 PM
5. This thread is about what? Sidewalks in Seattle? Richard Pope vs. Jane Hague? Prop 1?

I think the second one belongs elsewhere (sorry Richard) and the third one relevant to the time before the election, but sidewalks have more to do with stormwater (I'd be more than happy to explain elsewhere) than infrastructure funded under Prop 1.

Posted by: deadwood on September 28, 2007 05:36 PM
6. Stefan, I am having trouble imagining out-of-town--or even local riders--choosing to ridelight rail through the Rainier Valley late at night to access Westlake Center. (Unless they need to feed a Meth or Crack habit.)

Posted by: Doc-T on September 28, 2007 06:06 PM
7. Stefan, I am having trouble imagining out-of-town--or even local riders--choosing to ride light rail through the Rainier Valley late at night to access Westlake Center. (Unless they need to feed a Meth or Crack habit.)

Posted by: Doc-T on September 28, 2007 06:06 PM
8. As a runner, I hate sidewalks--hell on the knees & feet. I don't think they're good to walker's joints either. A better and cheaper option is a dirt footpath. If it gets muddy, that's why god has come out with goretex, sympatex, etc in shoes.

Posted by: mothersagainstconcretesidewalks(MACS) on September 28, 2007 09:15 PM
9. Heh Doc, imagine walking onto this choo choo train with two suitcases full of your travel items in your hands, and then taking a trip through the Rainer valley late at night.

I drove by that new ST station by the airport today, and could not help but think, how many people are going to drive to that station to park, and then take the tiny trip to the airport from there, just to get away from those massive parking fee's at the Airport. DUH >>>>>>>>

This alone will plug up that parking lot to the degree that there won't be a single spot available for any commuters into Seattle, it will cost the Port of Seattle Billions. It will be the new Airport parking lot.

There will not be a spot available for anyone heading to Seattle!

I gotta watch this one!

Sims, glad to see you got your head out of your....on this one!

Posted by: GS on September 28, 2007 10:09 PM
10. That's one of the first things I noticed when I came up here from LA in the '80s. No sidewalks. And they wonder why people aren't walking as much as they want them to.
In LA, we had lots of sidewalks. NOT having them was unusual. And yes they came in handy.
There really ought to be more of them up here.

Posted by: Michele on September 28, 2007 10:43 PM
11. Re MacIsaac's numbers, a big question besides the inflation rate for construction point he raises is: what's the interest rate on the borrowing?

For debt taken on in the next few years, it is probably reasonable to use as a proxy the current range of interest rates. However, what will interest rates be in 20 years? This is where things get really iffy. We could assume the present situation will continue: we keep buying from overseas, then the people we buy from turn around and buy T Bills or Mortgage Backed securities.

I don't think that will happen, for two reasons. First, a lot of the debt is held by countries like Japan and China, that over the next 20 years are going to go through some major demographic transitions. They will not want to keep holding bonds, they will need to spend the money on pensions.

Second, the US has some storm clouds ahead. The US has a $13 trillion underfunded social security liability. This does not include medicare, or the accumulated US debt. Also there's a lot of local debt as well. I want to commend Crosscut today for posting this link:

http://bojack.org/2007/09/portland_a_city_deep_in_hock_1.html

It details how in Portland, a household of 4 is on the hook for $34,000 of Portland city / Portland area debt. No one has ever done a similar study for the Seattle area that I've heard of. Maybe it is time to do so.

Given how congress has acted so far, a very likely scenario is a major increase in debt to pay off the social security shortfall. However, this could well drive up interest rates. Or maybe it drives up tax rates, reducing the returns to capital and labor.

If one or both of these scenarios do end up having an impact on interest rates, we could well be in a situation where the interest ends up being far higher than the "conservative" projections used in the ST2 model. This means more funding goes to repay bond holders, and less is available for operations, or for construction itself.

Posted by: Stuart Jenner on September 28, 2007 11:16 PM
12. #9, I'd been wondering the same thing about parking at the 154th street garage. I bet all the 600 spots are gone by 7 am, for people doing day trips to Portland, Spokane, San Jose and other places within 2 hours flight time. I don't like being cynical, but there are a lot of details in making any investment work, and the supporting details in a lot of cases are simply not present. The parking structure at Seatac is the only one built among the first 14 or 15 stops. So the assumption seems to be shuttle buses will go around the neighborhoods, or lots of people will move into new housing that's high density and a few mins walk away. How high density? how many shuttles? Who funds that?

The details just aren't there. People could make conceptual arguments of "the funding will come from redirecting the expenditures for bus that's replaced by the rail." Oh, so what's the comparative cost recovery of running shuttles around neighborhoods as opposed to running a large bus down an arterial? Does the ST farebox recovery financial model assume any sort of sharing with Metro or whoever runs the shuttles?

Posted by: Stuart Jenner on September 28, 2007 11:28 PM
13. @10

Same thing that I noticed. The neighborhood that I grew up in (P.V.E., for any 'Southlanders' out there), originally platted in the '20s -- although built-out, later, at least had curbs on the streets where a pedestrian could be out of traffic. What's ironic is that the streets built by the builder of my circa 1915 house in Tacoma included curbs and sidewalks (I have a copy of a newspaper article written a couple of years later about the homes that he built), and homes down the street, built in the 1940s and '50s don't even have a decently paved street -- let alone curbs and sidewalks. I've seen the same pattern up in the D.P.R. of Seattle.

@10 Assuming that you're not being sarcastic, you can -- in part -- thank the Americans with Disabilities Act for goading public agencies around here into installing sidewalks to avoid lawsuits for failures to provide 'reasonable' accommodation on a public service (a road) to individuals with disabilities.

Posted by: FT on September 29, 2007 07:56 AM
14. My bad. The second part was supposed to be to @8, not @10. pimf

Posted by: FT on September 29, 2007 08:00 AM
15.
Being a native son (3rd generator) I bused in from Kent to the Seattle Center to attend the Festival Italiana.

I decided to walk the way from the last stop of the 150 to the Center. While I was walking around, I noticed some signs for condomiums at street level -- one said, "$150,000 -- $400,000".

Gee -- I thought, that's quite a range...but at least there's some for $150,000. Then it struck me, there just aren't that many tall residential buildings in downtown Seattle.

With all the whining and moaning about the high cost of housing, it's not as if there's not shortage of places to build. I mean, New York is jam packed with buildings...but Seattle seems to have a very very few apartment buildings and the rest are all these crummy one story commercial buildings with restaurants in them that were built in the pioneer days.

You'd think with such high prices, there would be high demand, and hence lots more building.

But there ain't.

You figure it out. (I have my guesses...will save for a later post.)

Posted by: John Bailo on September 29, 2007 10:36 PM
16. BTW, since I live in North North Snohomish County, I sometimes travel down to Smokey Point or Everett or even South County to do shopping, and sometimes up to Burlington. But this prop's passage will make me even more likely to go to Burlington (which I sometimes do just because of the traffic anyway). Gotta love that sales tax ...

Posted by: pudge on September 29, 2007 10:58 PM
17. FT: what's PVE?

Posted by: Michele on September 30, 2007 02:03 PM
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