Related to the influence of the internet discussed below on the main page, some consideration on the power of polls in the fluid race for the Republican Presidential nomination is in order. Because, let's be honest, we in the blogosphere look at and talk about them. Mark Blumenthal at pollster.com recently asked: Are Primary Polls Meaningful? It's a fair question given the argument he presents, though probably the best take away is they mean something, just not as much as we often give them credit for.

The bigger issue in a race that started so early may well be avoiding getting too caught up in the daily machinations of the horserace, as Patrick Ruffini recently warned against. Wading into the weeds of the polls themselves shows some specific reasons to be so wary.

Take a look at the pollster.com national poll trend lines. Notice in particular the details of the polls themselves in the table below the chart (which excludes Rasmussen). Of the last ten pollsters in the field, two surveyed "likely voters," six surveyed "registered voters," and two surveyed "adults. " Bluntly, those are mostly atrocious samples given that it will be "likely primary voters" that will actually settle things as the state-by-state nomination contest unfolds (consider that only about 10% of adults actually vote in Presidential primaries). Dig into the questions of the polls themselves and you routinely find roughly half of Republican voters declaring themselves as not having enough information to have an opinion about Mitt Romney or Fred Thompson. That is hardly a sign of an engaged electorate out amongst the masses.

Compare the pollster.com results to the daily Rasmussen tracking numbers. Notice now that Fred Thompson's post-announcement bump has subsided, things are back to where they've been since the daily tracking numbers started in July: Thompson & Rudy Giuliani lumped around 1st in the mid- 20's, while Romney & John McCain fluctuate in a statistical tie for third in the mid-to-low teens. Note Rasmussen's voter screen is much tighter than almost all the other pollsters in action. Granted, Rasmussen's poll is still a national survey when we don't have a national primary, but the difference between the results of his tight voter screen - more aligned to actual likely primary voters - and those of other pollsters is significant.

John Hinderaker at much-read Powerline recently used national poll results as part of some questions he posed about Mitt Romney's standing with the Republican electorate. Hinderaker actually makes some fair points about Romney's warmness. Romney has many strengths, but he doesn't appear to have the ability to connect on a personal level as well as, say, Rudy Giuliani or Bill Clinton. But given the discussion of the importance of national polls above, is it really prudent to draw deep, determinative conclusions about how any candidate is faring with the electorate based on national polls? Such samples can't even say with certainty that Rudy Giuliani is pro-choice. Whatever ones position on abortion, if you don't know that basic fact, you're not following the race with any seriousness. Thus, making assumptions about how well Romney is selling with the national electorate makes about as much sense as making assumptions about whether or not Giuliani's social positions will eventually sink him as a potential nominee or whether Fred Thompson's support is durable. The information at hand from national polls simply isn't instructive for that sort of in-depth analysis.

This writer is as guilty as any in sometimes getting too caught up in the latest twist and turns of the horserace. Yet in weighing all the evidence, including the links provided above, it just seems wildly imprudent to jump to conclusions about any candidate based simply on national polls right now. Such surveys are interesting, movements in them give us an idea of race momentum, and sometimes they're the only way to quantify the race at this point. But that doesn't mean we shouldn't keep them in perspective. We junkies seeking out the latest political news are fully aware of the candidates and the latest events from the campaign trail. The typical American getting surveyed in most national polls isn't.