The discrepancy between Democratic ballots and Republican ballots are going to be a bath this year. I predicted a similar story last year, which turned out to be true.

Renee Radcliff Sinclair's campaign for Snohomish County Council is making a similar such point to members of the local press corps. Given past history with the party preference ballot, the lack of competitive primaries, and the mood toward generic Republicans in the electorate these days they make some good points...mostly that the party preference primary is not predictive of general elections results the way the blanket primary used to be.

Here's the full memo:

TO: Snohomish County Government/Politics Media

FR: Renee's Friends

RE: Partisan Primary vs. Blanket Primary

August 20, 2007

The partisan primary in Washington State is still a relatively new process and has frequently been subject to misinterpretation. The new partisan primary is much different than the old blanket primary "beauty contest." Unlike the blanket primary, raw votes from the partisan primary do not portray an accurate picture of where the candidates stand for the General Election.

There are numerous examples of where candidates who receive less raw votes in a partisan primary go on to defeat their opponent in the General Election. Several examples are provided below:

2004 8th Congressional District Primary vs. General Election

Primary Results

Democrats

Alex Alben - 24,903
Dave Ross - 39,347
Heidi Behrens-Benedict - 16,992
Total Democrat Votes - 81,242

Republicans

Conrad Lee - 8,350
Dave Reichert - 31,088
Diane Tebelius - 16,468
Luke Esser - 16,309
Total Republican Votes 72,215

As you can see, the Democrats outpolled the Republicans in this primary by 9,027.

General Election Results

Dave Ross (D) - 157,148
Dave Reichert (R) - 173,298

But in the general election, the Republican candidate outpolled the Democrat candidate by 16,150 votes, a swing of 25,177 votes.

2006 8th CD Primary vs. General Election

Primary

Darcy Burner (D) - 54,776
Dave Reichert (R) - 52,598

General Election

Darcy Burner (D) - 122,021
Dave Reichert (R) -129,362

As you can see, Burner outpolls Reichert by 2,178 votes in the Primary, but loses by 7,341 in the General Election.

The same holds true for state legislative races:

2004 39th Legislative District Primary vs. General Election

Primary

Pedro Gonzales (D) - 11,267
Kirk Pearson (R) - 9,462

General Election

Pedro Gonzales (D) - 21,960
Kirk Pearson (R) - 32,344

2006 42nd Legislative District Primary vs. General Election

Primary

Jesse Salomon (D) -11,571
Dale Brandland (R) - 10,495

General Election

Jesse Salomon (D) - 22,684
Dale Brandland (R) - 25,836

Again, significant differences between the primary and general election. Why is this? There are several reasons.

First, turnout is significantly higher in general elections than in primaries, usually over twice as high. That means the electorate, as a whole, is much different in the primary than in the general election.

Secondly, factors external to a given race always have an impact on partisan primary results. For example, in 2004, Democrats had a much more competitive primary for Governor than did Republicans. This competitive race on the Democrat side higher up the ticket increased Democrat turnout in that election and subsequently increased turnout in Democrat races all the way down the ballot. It's difficult to predict how races for County Executive , Sheriff, Clerk, and Edmonds and Lynnwood City Councils will impact the 3rd County Council District race.

What does this mean for the 3rd County Council District primary? In the 3rd CCD, a lean Democrat district, we expect that Mike Cooper will pull more votes than Renee Radcliff Sinclair. However, based on the examples above and other mitigating factors, we caution against reading such results as one would the results of a Blanket Primary.

As a four term legislator and someone who has remained very involved in her district, public reception to Renee's candidacy has been very positive. In their only previous head to head match up, Renee defeated Mike Cooper. In fact, Renee is 5-0 in electoral contests - she has never lost. Renee's broad appeal in a Democrat-leaning district means, in addition to the Republican base, she has earned the support of independents and marginal Democrats, voters who are not likely to participate in the Republican primary.

We are confident that Renee Radcliff Sinclair is in a strong position to win the General Election in November. We urge you to not misinterpret the primary results.