The Presidential race is largely at a structural point of stasis until after Labor Day, barring a major gaffe by one of the candidates. There has also been a fair amount of movement in the Republican race the last several weeks worth reviewing.
Short Summary: Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, and Mitt Romney are up. Fred Thompson and Sam Brownback are down. John McCain is drifting.
Rudy Giuliani - about a month ago I wrote he was listing. A couple weeks ago I wrote he was starting to turn things around. Now, his campaign seems to have fully turned the corner.
The roll out of his health care "Commitment" garnered a fair amount of good coverage for its conservative principles. Now, he's pushing hard on immigration and continues to elevate his retail politicking in the early states.
Immigration may not turn out to be such a boon for him and he still of course has problems with a significant number of social conservatives, but he has solidified his lead in national polls when it looked for a while as if Fred Thompson might catch him earlier in the summer. The Rasmussen daily tracking numbers show a good breakdown: Giuliani has moved from consistently in the low 20's and behind Thompson in mid-July to back in the lead, generally holding in the mid-20's. Thompson in contrast has slipped back down to around 20% after regularly hitting the mid-20's about a month ago.
Mike Huckabee - his surprise 2nd place showing at the Ames straw poll was a huge, needed boost to a campaign that was living on fumes between debates. Now, however, Huckabee might face the a lot of pressure. He must couple a significant increase in fundraising before the 3rd quarter deadline on 9/30 with a noticeable increase in staff hires. Without adding the finances and organization his campaign has been utterly lacking thus far, he'll still be a second tier candidate. At this point, there are already questions about how seriously that turnaround will be pursued (see here and here).
Mitt Romney - another strong debate showing followed by the expected win at Ames gave him a tremendous boost in earned media, including newspaper coverage, a wave of broadcast media attention (Fox News Sunday, Today, Hannity, etc., etc.), and a healthy buzz in the blogosphere. That's all paying off in rising poll numbers.
The last five national pollsters in the field - as of this writing - have had him at their highest point of the cycle, and ahead of McCain. Every early state poll out this past week (Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, and South Carolina) also showed him moving up compared to the respective pollsters previous surveys.
Sam Brownback - losing to Huckabee at Ames after outspending and out-organizing his competitor for the ardent social conservative vote hurt. His "overtly mean-spirited campaign" was questioned immediately afterwards. Now, Rich Lowry and Robert Novak are preaching gloom as well. Key line from Lowry:
I don't have any problem with negative campaigning and there's obviously nothing wrong with Christians engaging in political and intellectual combat, but the spectacle of such a self-consciously Christian candidate running perhaps the most negative of any of the campaigns is jarring and discomfiting.
Fred Thompson - whatever the validity of Thompson needing time to put together a national campaign organization, he missed a premier opportunity to jump into the race after McCain's implosion and harness the enthusiasm of his own supporters. He had a great window of opportunity that is now not nearly so wide open. In his absence, Giuliani has solidified his position as the national frontrunner and Romney has become further entrenched both in the early states and as a direct competitor to Rudy.
Even setting aside the recent rough patch for Thompson, which was a pretty bad narrative, the "testing the waters" phase has become a bit of a farce. One doesn't sit down with the dean of the Washington, DC press corps if one isn't running for something.
Now, Thompson is really going to have to hit the ground running. But will he? One recent recounting has it that he's going to have a comparatively undemanding schedule, less active than those already employed by other major candidates on both sides of the aisle. That simply won't cut it if it turns out to be true, as his recent trip to Iowa seemed to indicate:
If Fred Thompson wants a place in an already full-blown campaign for the Iowa caucuses, he will have to begin hustling today to explain who he is and why he ought to be president, Republican leaders and undecided GOP caucusgoers in Iowa say.But by the looks of the former Tennessee senator's schedule for his first day as a presidential prospect in the leadoff nominating state, he will have hardly begun that task by the time he leaves Iowa this afternoon.
Presumably he'll participate in the September 5th debate in New Hampshire. Presumably. The heat would likely be severe if he doesn't, though it's not as if expectation will be low if he does.
In the meantime, the scrutiny of his past record is increasing, including conflicting statements on the Medicare drug benefit and his thoughts on campaigning in Iowa.
John McCain - he's simply got no 'mo. He was a lesser presence in the pre-Ames Iowa debate on ABC. He appears to be slipping behind Romney in the national polls. He claims he needs to win two of the three early states to secure the nomination. Does anyone realistically think he can knock off Giuliani, Romney, and Thompson to do that?
In the big picture Giuliani and Romney lead the first tier, with Thompson still looking like a potentially formidable candidate. Were it not for poll numbers showing him 3rd or 4th in national and early state surveys McCain would be fully out of the top candidate grouping. Huckabee is poised to leapfrog past McCain if he can capitalize on his post-Ames momentum. Either way, with the primary calendar continuing to creep forward toward the turn of the year, the pace is going to be quick from Labor Day moving forward.
**Footnote: It is not without some annoyance I note that as of this typing the pollster.com chart for the national polls has not been updated since August 5th, since which time there has been a fair amount of national polling. Grrr. It's an excellent tool and I've used their charts for the state-specific links above.
UPDATE: sentence in section on Fred Thompson fixed.
Posted by Eric Earling at August 19, 2007 09:07 AM | Email ThisWhen they made real men with giant gonads and good brains, Fred Thompson was the model. He is smart steel with a heart for America. He is diamond hard and love soft. He sees around the bend when others cannot. He is a human chess game. He is Knowledge plus Respect. He is our next President.
Don Jones
MyManFred.com
This is your most realistic analysis to date. But, you are still giving much to much creadence to the Romney effort. Thompson has floundered and may continue to do so, but Romney has yet to be challenged in paid media yet in IA and NH and as Dick Morris has noted is unlikely to retain anything like his present lead. In other words, the shooting hasn't started yet in those states. When it does we should have a better view of the terrain.
That being said, Romney has worked the hype about as well as anyone could and should be congratulated for that. Organization fundamentals look good for him (support from his co-religionists could have been expected, but at this level?) but those same strengths hold real problems, particularly in the Soutn, that have been noted elsewhere and don't require elaboration.
Romney's inability to generate enthusiasm in the South is, I suspect, an indication that he will hit the same wall Tsongas (another Gov. of Mass) faced when he was blown out by Clinton after performing well in early states.
Were Romney, as a candidate, possessed of more plus traits (presidential-level accomplishments, Red state base) and fewer negatives (more wonkish than macho, untested and unseasoned against the field, polling horribly against the D nominee and R independents) I might be able to buy into the hype, but as it stands I cannot.
The great benefit Romney has, however, is the weakness of the conservative field. One hesitates to think that Thompson can continue running a seemingly inept campaign and still consolidate southern conservatives, but I find that more likely than southern conservatives reaching an accomodation with Romney. Though perhaps things will contine as they have with conservatives remaining divided until Rudy walks away with the nomination.
Posted by: Not Declining on August 19, 2007 09:56 AMLets be serious. Would YOU hire someone who thinks the Earth is 6000 year old to run the country? How about hiring someone who is on wife three and whose kids hate him to be Our Moral Leader?
The ONLY QUALIFIED candidates are several Demoes and Romney. There is a lesson here, someplace.
^sj
Posted by: Stephen Schwartz on August 19, 2007 10:10 AMSimple right? A good teacher, like a good worker, should get more money?
Nope...not in DemocratLand. Every candidate twisted and turned in circles not able to answer the question. Some ended up saying "no" basically.
Obviously, it is more important for the Democrat party to not offend the teachers union, then to create policies to help kids get the best teachers.
The Democrats must hope no one will see these debates, because it exposes their liabilities!
Whatever your opinions about the candidates, Rudy hasn't been steadily fading and Romney rising compared to each other. Rudy had a 15 point gap on Romney on June 10th and has a 14 point gap on Romney today (the narrowest it has been since June 10) and it has fluctuated back and forth in the interim. That hardly constitutes the trend you are looking for which even Eric disavows above.
Posted by: Not Declining on August 19, 2007 11:19 AMYour analysis that in Fred's absence, "Giuliani has solidified his position as the national frontrunner," is telling: Fred does not WANT to be the frontrunner this early. When it looked like he might catch Rudy is when he took the most heat. It's too early to spend that much time on defense.
People who think his campaign has been "inept" or that he "missed his window" are trying too hard to dismiss him. He is exactly where he wants to be at this stage, and his organization is pretty strong and growing stronger.
Posted by: pudge on August 19, 2007 11:34 AMI'm not opposed to Thompson, but to be honest, the fanaticism for him on the right is as bad as the obama fetish of the left.
I do feel that if the GOP wins in 08, it will be another 8 year tenure in the white house. The kool aid drinkers voted the dems in for ONE reason only and that was to surrender in iraq...and the only things that have happened since then is that the koolaid congress has completely failed in EVERYTHING they've attempted, they've proven themselves to be more corrupt then the Republicans they replaced and the troop surge is working. No wonder Rove could go home---sort of like Bagger Vance into the sunset while W finishes the 18th hole.
On the bright side for team blue is- I think an asswhooping would help the democrats clense themselves of the netroots influence.
Posted by: Andy on August 19, 2007 11:51 AMpudge - my point in saying candidates were "up" or "down" was in terms of campaign momentum. If you disagree that Thompson has lost some momentum that's your view and I respect that. But I look at his slippage in the polls, the spat of negative "process" stories that will influence his campaign narrative, and his wasted chance to capitalize on McCain's collapse (coupled with Giuliani's not very impressive national campaign until about a month ago) and I see a missed opportunity.
I agree there are a lot of disadvantages to being the "frontrunner," which Thompson indeed probably doesn't want to be right now. At the same time, the news thus far about his campaign organization doesn't exactly lead me to believe he's in a good position yet to take on Giuliani and Romney in full force. Perhaps Thompson will prove himself in the coming four month virtual sprint before the Iowa caucuses; I remain open to that happening. But everything I've seen of his delayed campaign doesn't lead me to believe that will actually occur as some of his supporters seem to believe. Until he actually demonstrates that he can turn his name ID and enthusiastic backers into an actual competitive campaign I remain a skeptic.
Posted by: Eric Earling on August 19, 2007 12:57 PMNot entering the race until after the Iowa Straw Poll- which Romney had bought- was a wise move on the part of the man who will be the eventual nominee- Fred Thompson.
Posted by: Bob Waters on August 19, 2007 02:02 PMThank you.
Posted by: John Blyth on August 19, 2007 02:16 PMWhat matters is, of course, national and statewide support among primary voters. Paul consistently scores in the very low single digits in all such polls. Try to spin it if you will, but we're not naive enough here to fall for it.
Posted by: pudge on August 19, 2007 05:17 PMCertainly you grasp the fact that polling processes that are not subject to accuracy controls of any kind, like the straw polls and online polls you mention, are reflective of nothing except the willingness of a minority to try and manipulate the process. They certainly don't constitute reliable evidence for the proposition you want them to, that Ron Paul has significant popular support. If he did, it would be manifesting itself in polls that are subject to controls. Since it isn't, you may rest assured there is no groundswell of support for Ron Paul.
Posted by: Not Declining on August 19, 2007 05:25 PMEverything is so front-loaded that I don't think waiting till Labor Day is smart. And, it doesn't give the country time to see how Thompson handles the uppercuts and haymakers the Democratically-run MSM will plant on him. I just hope we don't wake up in the middle of February and say we made a big mistake we have to live with for five years.
Posted by: swatter on August 20, 2007 07:11 AMPersonally, if his position on taxes, spending, national security, constitutional constructionism, the 2nd and 10th amendments, and Social Security reform are acceptable, I really don't care how old he thinks the Earth is.
Posted by: RBW on August 20, 2007 01:57 PMPoll Date
Giuliani Thompson Romney
RCP Average
08/02 - 08/19 28.2 17.0 12.7 12.7 8.5
Giuliani +11.2
Posted by: John Bailo on August 20, 2007 02:29 PM