Since a post expressing some skepticism about Fred Thompson and his non-campaign campaign, news surrounding his candidacy has been bizarre.
MSNBC's FirstRead has as good a summary as any of the news, which included story after story after story this past week about Thompson staffers saying their goodbyes. The big news of course was the turnover at campaign manager (begging the question how exactly does a non-campaign replace a campaign manager anyway...never mind).
There really is no good way to evaluate all this. Jim Geraghty - who has been impressively tough but fair on all the Republican candidates - offered good analysis on the topic, pointing out this "testing the waters" phase has begun to outlive its shelf-life and that the current campaign narrative is dangerously close to being a "portrait of chaos," though it's not quite there yet.
The Fix had some similar thoughts:
Our sense of the ongoing Thompson staff shuffle is that it is teetering on the brink of becoming just plain bad news. The sharks are circling and whispers about the too-prominent role of Thompson's wife -- Jeri -- are everywhere. With news of every departure, the story tilts away from Thompson's best interests.The audience for this story remains largely confined within the Beltway for the moment, which is good for Thompson. But staff stirrings can lead to stories about disorganization, unhappiness and general disorder, and that is a narrative that does Thompson's "campaign" no good, especially as he prepares to launch his bid formally sometime in the next month or so.
Fred apologists can try to explain away as much as they'd like, and in theory one can offer a somewhat reasonable scenario for each individual story that isn't too damaging. But the logical conclusion after reviewing this past week's news in full is that Thompson's non-campaign campaign has peaked - even if it isn't showing in the polls yet. The campaign is about to lose control of its own narrative, one of the worst things that can happen in any race. That will do nothing to help reportedly already tepid fundraising.
Sitting on the sidelines "testing the waters" for another month legally ties the hands of Thompson's organization to act like a candidate, thus shift the narrative back to something positive. He and his staff simply won't be able to say the sort of things and engage in the sort of proactive and obvious campaign activity that will help right the ship. It simply won't work.
Anyone with serious campaign experience can assess the totality of all this and identify something is amiss with Team Thompson, and it isn't good. Waiting until September to launch a campaign to turn that around is a dangerous, dangerous gamble. It's not as if either the media or Thompson's competition is going to sit back and let him have the month of August to sort things out on his own timeline, free of any additional curveballs thrown his way.
Like I said last week, it's time for Fred to get in the game.
Posted by Eric Earling at July 29, 2007 02:47 PM | Email ThisWhy?
Posted by: Bob Leibowitz on July 29, 2007 03:59 PMRemember. It's July of 2007. If he's not in by Labor Day, that's one thing. Jumping in during the lamest, slowest, lousiest news months of the year makes no sense. Nobody but the hardcores are paying attention. And speaking as a 'hardcore' from the right, nobody currently in the race impresses me and I'm willing to keep my powder dry for awhile. I suspect I'm not alone.
Posted by: jimg on July 29, 2007 04:17 PMYes, it's only July of 2007 but the campaign season is already fully underway given the hyper-competitive primaries on both sides of the aisle - witness one top tier candidate (McCain) already suffering a likely mortal wound to his candidacy. Primary voting kicks off in a little more than five months, and will then unfold at a fast and furious pace.
It's awfully damn late to put together what will have to be a strong, organized national campaign to compete in that environment...especially when the last couple months indicate Team Thompson can't seem to get its ducks in order in a timely manner. The original kickoff was supposed to be in early July, now they're looking at after Labor Day? Good luck with that.
Posted by: Eric Earling on July 29, 2007 04:31 PMBush could not get renominated today even if he weren't constitutionally limited.
Posted by: Frank on July 29, 2007 05:13 PMRudy is a man people can get behind until they learn a little about him. His regards for personal liberties is horrible so most in the center and left will oppose him and his stance on most republican issues (such as limited government, lower taxes, pro life) is horrible as well. If you want a liberal just vote democrat!
Frank is right. For a republican to win this time around we will have to chose a candidate that has the biggest "I am not George Bush" sign around his neck. Whether you like Bush or not, you must accept the country as a whole does not. Ron Paul is the only candidate that has even distanced himself from Bush at all so far and will be the only one that can beat any of the Democratic anti war candidates. We must accept that the winner in 08 will not be a pro war candidate so our choice is to nominate a Republican anti war candidate that will at least protect gun rights, civil liberties, and lower taxes rather than letting a pro socialized medicine supporting candidate from the left.
Travis Pahl
Ron Paul in 2008!!!!
Fred has a lot going for him right now, even with all of this criticism coming out of the ether. As an undeclared candidate, he doesn't have to worry about the media as much -- and his fundraising is on track. In fact, he'll be hosting a high dollar fundraiser in D.C. very soon.
He also reportedly has a network of influential boosters inside the Beltway, who in addition to former staff members, are working to ramp up his efforts.
Impatience with Fred's announcement schedule is just that--impatience. He'll announce when he's good and ready, and I suspect that when he does, there'll be plenty of support moving into his column from all of the current front-runners.
Posted by: Patrick on July 29, 2007 10:12 PMI think Fred is dead and I am a supporter. This election cycle with all the front-loaded primaries means September is too late. Sorry Newt, and while I agree with you that September/October shouldn't be too late, it will be this year.
Posted by: swatter on July 30, 2007 07:07 AMYou call this sort of discussion bashing? For goodness sake, I was actually saying Rudy has done some really good things since I last posted on him. As for Thompson, it's simply a summation and brief analysis of what was really an amazing week's worth of news for a non-campaign.
And are you really saying "he doesn't have to worry about the media as much"? Are you kidding me? If he continues this non-campaign past Labor Day that will be another month of media scrutiny without a full campaign operation that will be legally allowed to fight back and proactively control his message like he needs to. Every candidate has to worry about the media, and let's not delude ourselves into saying Fred isn't a candidate at this point.
Lastly, please don't insult my intelligence by pointing out in the last thread what Patrick Ruffini's past role is as if I don't know. I'm fully aware of it, which is one reason I even link to his work, which agree or disagree are usually well-put. In this case, I happen to disagree a bit.
Posted by: Eric Earling on July 30, 2007 07:57 AMYou're not alone.
Posted by: RBW on July 30, 2007 08:45 AMAnd don't forget: in the Republican Primary, any weakness in Thompson's campaign is NOTHING compared to Giuliani's progressive views on gays/abortion and Romney's inconsistencies on these same subjects. The GOP base is looking for a consistent conservative, and neither Giuliani nor Romney fit that description.
Posted by: Michal on July 30, 2007 09:44 AMIn 2004. The year of the election. Quite different than now ... 15 months out.
If Fred jumps in, great. And I'm not sure why you think it needs to be done according to your schedule. If he doesn't jump in, that's fine, too. As I stated before, only the hardcores are paying attention now and nobody from either side is tremendously impressed with the quality of the field.
Quite frankly, I think you've got better things to write about than giving your political advice to a candidate you don't support.
Posted by: jimg on July 30, 2007 09:44 AM"Like I said last week, it's time for Fred to get in the game."
Relax. Fred's in the game. Your very post (and MSM attacks) confirm that.
Perhaps you are concerned that he has not made a public disclosure of his votes on critical issues? Fear not. Simply go to: http://www.ontheissues.org/senate/Fred_Thompson.htm
It doesn't matter to me if Fred gets in tomorrow or 6 months from now. The final decision makers are the voters. They could give a hoot about the timing of an announced candidacy.
Posted by: Ken on July 30, 2007 11:28 AMRemember how McCain self-destructed in '00? And Howard Dean in '04? I don't think we can afford to wait; however, he should have entered in July, but I see the value in waiting till September.
Posted by: swatter on July 30, 2007 12:29 PMMrs and Mr Thompson: Quite A Pair
You can do that stuff if you're in business or entertainment...not politics.
Hey Fred, do it or fade to a commercial. Lot of face time for a bag of talk.
Posted by: pbs7mm on July 30, 2007 03:49 PMhttp://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2007/7/13/93121.shtml
"The reaction I hear from every woman I know, those who have gotten sick to their stomachs over seeing middle-aged men cavorting with girls barely beyond their teen years, is a giant "yuck."
Another writer (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/07/29/wuspols129.xml) said this:
"Her good looks and penchant for figure-hugging dresses with plunging necklines inevitably draw attention to their 25-year age gap. They have also reminded commentators of Mr Thompson's reputation as a "ladies' man" after his 1985 divorce."
At least he didn't meet #2 while married to #1 !
At his rate the wise thing for Publicans to do is to switch parties. The Dems have surfeit of viable candidates. Pick one.
Posted by: SeattleJew on July 30, 2007 10:08 PM