Reader Note: This first went online Saturday morning, but I'm moving it up because I would like to hear more from readers on it.
This post is primarily to get some feedback from the local Fredheads that have made their voice heard at this site in the past, plus to hear from other interested readers.
Events of the last week present a clear reason for Fred Thompson to make his candidacy official rather than continuing its current "testing the waters" phase. The dust-up over Thompson's lobbying/consulting for a pro-abortion rights group is damaging more because of how the Thompson campaign handled it rather than the specifics of the issue itself (it's not as if the rest of the GOP field is pure as the driven snow to pro-life activists).
First there was a flat denial, then an equivocation, then the reality that Thompson did actually perform the work in question. Ubiquitous conservative writer Jennifer Rubin joined Jim Geraghty in saying the whole series of events doesn't make the Thompson campaign look good at all. If this were a more substantive issue affecting a candidate formally in the race such story-management performance would have been a grievous wound.
More importantly, as Rubin also notes, it has also begun a process where others are defining Fred Thompson for him. That's never a good thing.
If Thompson's campaign isn't careful, that definition-written-by-others problem is going to expand. A reasonable case can be made Thompson is violating the spirit of the law defining "testing of the waters," if not the letter. While FEC complaints - which proceed at a disturbingly glacial pace - aren't a concern, continued coverage of the issue would be. Simply put, hiring staffers to perform outreach to social conservative and a research director is beyond someone just considering a Presidential run. Thompson's operation is set to report end of July numbers and continues to hold pricey fundraising event after pricey fundraising event. The more money Thompson collects, the more the effort is clearly a campaign, not an exploration. Neither his opponents nor the media are likely to let him skate on that.
While considering all that, keep in mind even some prominent national Fredheads are starting to get restless too. Effective campaigns have to take advantage of enthusiasm when it appears, not whenever the campaign organization gets around to it. The longer Thompson waits, the more the campaign risks losing its enthusiasm edge. The latest race rankings from the National Journal about sums up the problem:
The media and the conservative elite are running out of patience. Just get in already -- or announce an exact date. McCain's seeming collapse is an opportunity to strike now; waiting could bring regrets. A campaign cannot run on fumes, nor can it run on a weekly Sean Hannity armpit snuggle. The longer Thompson waits, the more likely the story becomes the waiting rather than the candidate.
Between the enthusiasm shown by Thompson supporters and McCain's collapse this is an optimal time to jump into the race. Why wait? There are pros and cons, but at some point the cost-benefit analysis has to be clear.
Personally, while I prefer Romney, I fully recognize he still faces a challenging path to win the nomination. Given the complexity of the field, I want a decent fallback option if Romney falters. McCain was never a consideration for me. I like Giuliani and declared him my second choice a while back. But I've not been impressed with either his performance or that of his campaign organization on the trail, plus there's the concern of his ability to hold the Republican coalition together. That troubles me given the likelihood of facing Hillary, Inc. in the general. For all Clinton's faults, her campaign is going to make any Republican nominee earn a victory the hard way.
Thus, I've been giving Thompson a look. On the plus side it's tough not to like Thompson's radio commentaries. Likewise, his written punditry, whether online or in the dead-tree media, is excellent. But campaigns aren't won with podcasts and blog posts. Performance on the trail matters. On that score I've been left unimpressed.
Pick your speech, Richmond, London, or South Carolina; none of them had me thinking, "yep, this man should be President."
Perhaps I'm expecting too much of Thompson, but that's part of the problem he faces. Expectations are high and the margin of error is slim at this stage of the race. That's the same thing we would be saying in a statewide race here in Washington if someone tried to jump into a competitive primary less than six months before votes are cast.
Beyond tepid speech reviews from glowing Thompson pundits and acknowledgment that he's not yet wowing crowds out and about, there is other evidence the Thompson campaign isn't meeting the high bar some expect. There has oddly been no mention of the results of that "First Day" fundraising that was supposed to scoop up nearly $5 million ASAP in early June. The power of "the Internets" the Thompson campaign was going to use to transform the primary process is also being oddly employed. His site relies almost exclusively on a blog to provide content. That blog went from June 29th to July 8th without being updated. As of this typing on July 21st it hasn't been updated since July 13th.
Maybe I'm wrong about Thompson. But the only way he's going to prove that to me and a lot of other people is by actually joining his competition on the trail. I've seen too many campaigns to not think current events show Thompson is steadily letting his best opportunity pass by as he continues to sit on the sidelines. Reports of him waiting until after Labor Day to make it official should raise even more eyebrows.
So, readers, do you agree or disagree?
UPDATE: Scrolling through my notes for preparing the above text I re-read the title of this post from Dean Barnett a little over a week ago. As such, it's only fair I give him a hat-tip on the title which no doubt was lurking in the odd reaches of my brain when I typed this up. Thanks for the idea, Dean.
Posted by Eric Earling at July 23, 2007 06:39 AM | Email ThisThe "game" has begun way too early this cycle. With the early start comes the need to raise outrageous amounts of money to stay in.
I am all in favor of letting the Dems (and the rest of early starters for that matter) spend their cash early while settling nothing.
This country does not need a four (or a three) year campaign to choose a political leader. A practical solution - one that would reduce the influence of the large campaign funders - would be to limit the campaign to no more than 6 or even 12 months (I personally prefer something along the lines of 6 weeks).
An added benefit of such a limit would be save us all from the constant barrage of BS that are campaigns.
Posted by: deadwood on July 21, 2007 11:43 AMThe flat denial of Fred working on the abortion issue was a gross mistake. Never say never. It too will pass however. Fred generated well over $300,000 his last fund raiser and it was a sell out. The money is there for him.
When he comes out, I feel in September the money will really start to flow. Rudy is the only one that stays close. McCain has spent $22 million and Fred practically Zip. He is getting along on the Internet donations.
I suspect there is little imagination among his handlers and supporters. It feels like they are waiting for something to happen to them rather than them happening to something.
He won't attend the Aimes straw pole which I applaud. He is not going to engage and spend and engage and spend. Expect Gorilla tactics.
Don Jones
MyManFred.com
I disagree. In fact he is playing it fairly well. The Democrats are falling for it hook, lin and sinker. They are firing their shots early and out of range. Do you really think that by this time next year anyone will remember any of this? In politics, six months is an eternity. People won't remember any of this stuff and it won't matter anyway.
Democrats will try to play up the abortion issue but they really have no leg to stand on. Which Democrat doesn't support government funded, abortion on-demand? Last time I checked, Republicans do not consult Democrats and their media to learn whom to pick for their candidates.
Posted by: pbj on July 21, 2007 12:29 PMFred is writing his articles, giving speeches and garnering quiet support all while not being in the fray. With this MO, he can't be a legitmate target and if they insist on making him one all he has to do is ask the public to wonder why a DECLARED pol is attacking a still private citizen. The nonsense insulting his wife last week is a perfect example. The smarminess of the attack reflected far more on the attacker.
Newt is following a similar path. He writes and send out his weekly Winning the Future newsletter, he is always on the TV giving his opinion on the state of the world, he's pit giving speeches and he stays below the fight.
It's one heck of tactic as a way to get ideas out there.
I applaud them both for outfoxing both their competition and their opposition
And while Ragnar is right about how Fred is able to write and give speeches, it's clearly way past the point where Fred can claim that he's still just another ''private citizen''; that's just not credible.
Also: Everybody needs to keep in mind that both the (R) and (D) nominations for Pres will most likely be decided in just SEVEN months from right now. Plus I think many more people than usual ARE already seriously thinking about the race.
Posted by: Methow Ken on July 21, 2007 03:41 PMBut on the otherside , I am not too excited about the republicans running for office . Not only do I see them not being able to win because of the Bush Legacy , but they do not stand out .
Thompson appears to be able to be more believable when you hear him speak , down to earth , one of us yet with leadership appeal .
I however have this sinking feeling that we will be watching First Lady Bill giving a Whitehouse Tour on PBS and explaining about the new China he picked out . Of he will also skip the Oval Office in the tour stating from his experience nothing ever happens in their worth repeating .
Posted by: Mick Sheldon on July 21, 2007 04:03 PMThompson does not want to declare before the Iowa vote, because if he didn't win there it would make his campaign look weak. However, if he does well in Iowa (say 2nd, 3rd, or even 4th) and hasn't declared yet, he looks like a very viable candidate.
My prediction on how it will play out:
(1)The Thompson Campaign will declare a formal exploratory committee. This will be a step forward for the campaign, but still one final step away from a formal declaration. This will probably occur sometime between July 24 and mid August.
(2)Thompson will formally declare his campaign for the Presidency around Labor Day.
(3)Thompson will pour ALL of his financial resources into the key primary states, and will win the Republican nomination.
GO Fred Go!
Posted by: Dwight on July 21, 2007 05:22 PMThe Ames staw poll is exactly 3 weeks away. Fred can perhaps wait until just after that to announce without much of a downside. But waiting until after Labor Day still sounds significantly late to me.
Posted by: Methow Ken on July 21, 2007 05:42 PMI don't think your Dino Rossi analogy holds at all. Dino is the de facto GOP nominee, who if he runs won't be facing voters in a contested race for well over a year, and who has already faced the electorate whose votes he would be seeking in this cycle (thus they know what he stands for).
In contrast, Thompson has not previously faced the electorate he know hopes to woo, he faces a highly competitive field, and the voting (in places where he needs to set up campaign organizations that can actually harness the enthusiasms of the Fredheads) commences in less than six months.
If Fred waits another two months he'll have totally blown what has been a splendid little run these past several months. By then he'll be under serious scrutiny from both the MSM and the blogosphere, all without a formal campaign with which to respond. That just isn't going to work.
Posted by: Eric Earling on July 21, 2007 06:53 PMWhy someone doesn't propose redeploying some of our troops from Iraq into Pakistan to hunt down and kill the heavies of Al Qaeda and the Taliban is beyond me ! The Dems are right about why we don't go after OBL - but that alone won't have an impact. However, if we go after the Al Qaeda and terrrorist infrastructure that is holed up in Pakistan, there is a good chance that would have more of an effect than surging in Iraq until the cows come home. If Fred Thompson or anyone else can communicate that, they could have my vote.
Posted by: KS on July 21, 2007 10:20 PMGet a grip!!!! Fred will do just fine WHENEVER the time is right. Just look at today..... Argentinas LADY Candidate had a video linking QUEEN Hillary and HUGO CHAVEZ for her intro.....He is doing the right thing. Most voters could give a sh&& right now. Let all the wanabe's have their 15 mins of fame and when the time is right...................GO FRED GO!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: Jeff on July 21, 2007 11:53 PMLet's do a little experiment here. All Registered Republicans who look to the New York Times for advice on which Repuclican to vote for in the Republican primary, raise your hand.
Note: Liberal online sock puppets don't count.
Posted by: pbj on July 22, 2007 01:33 AMReforms
* As Chairman of the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee, Thompson enacted a law that required federal agencies to calculate and report the cost of regulations on taxpayers and businesses.
* Press reports stated: "He put heat on federal agencies by holding hearings on mismanagement and by asking them to tote up the improper payments they made each year." That added up to about $20 billion in taxpayer dollars. His efforts saved taxpayers more than $2 billion in 2005-06 along at the the Department of Health and Human Services.
* He published a two volume report, "Government on the Brink," detailing the waste, fraud, and abuse of federal agencies as well as the management challenges facing the incoming Bush Administration. Paul Light, a New York University professor and leading expert on government, said, "I consider him to be one of the most dedicated overseers of the executive branch of the last 25 years."
* Twenty-five years after he'd gained national prominence as hard-charging counsel on the Watergate committee, Thompson again stepped into the investigation spotlight. In 1997, as chairman of the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee, he opened an investigation into attempts by the Chinese government to influence America policies and elections through, among other means, financing election campaigns. The investigation identified at least six Democrat donors and fundraisers, with ties to the Clinton Administration, who had laundered or aided in the laundering and distribution of foreign money into Democrat political party coffers. The investigation also exposed two Democrat Party donors with "a long-term relationship with a Chinese intelligence agency," according to the Senate committee's report.
Taxes
* In his eight years, Thompson, who served on the Finance Committee, supported and worked to enact three major tax-cut bills, reducing the federal tax burden on all of us.
National Security
* As a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Thompson focused on the threat of nuclear proliferation and technology transfers that could damage American industrial and national security.
* While a vocal supporter of free trade, Thompson has also fought to link free trade to our national security interests. For example, when voting to grant full-trading status to China, Senator Thompson fought unsuccessfully to include an amendment in the bill that would have required the president to impose sanctions against China if it violated nuclear-nonproliferation agreements.
* Thompson also served on the Intelligence Committee at a time when it examined the failings in intelligence and analysis leading into the September 11th terrorist attacks, as well as the reforms needed to better prepare for future threats.
I can wait for him, but must admit I'd be happier to see some substance before I totally jump on the red truck. -Potential FreddyCat.
Posted by: Joys2Cents on July 22, 2007 08:53 AMhttp://OsiSpeaks.com or http://OsiSpeaks.org
Posted by: KYJurisDoctor on July 22, 2007 11:47 AMYOU DON'T WIN CAMPAIGNS BY NOT RUNNING.
You. don't. win. by. not. running.
Why? everyone else sucks up the dollars and endorsements and delegates (if he does not run in Iowa). Gee, guess what happens if he does not run in Iowa? Whoever wins it is the "front runner" and gets a huge media splash.
BTW this is just as true whether you are GOP or DEM.
Moreover, you can't respond as well to negativity coming your way. One poster here misconstrued the point of the planned parenthood lobying: FRED WAS A WASHINGTON DC LOBBYIST and is a bit of a flip flopper!
The issue does not matter.
And I agree with the poster who said let's redeploy and go get OBL in Pakistan.
Amen.
He's the one who targeted us NOT Iraq and this whole war is a loser for the GOP unless you all change course really soon.
The idea of actually AIMING AT THE FELLOW WHO AIMED AT US would be a good start.
Trying to find and shoot at Al Qaeda inside Iraq where there are 25 other armed groups and we can't really tell who is who and most of them are aiming at us is pretty dumb...ater we pull out if they (Al-Q) get a real "bases" with camps and stuff we can go bomb them. MEanwhile they are 1000% able to (a) get or talk to folks in the US wokring for them (b) wire them money and (c) use the internet to communicate and (D) commit terrorism here
WHETHER OR NOT WE ARE DISTRACTED IN IRAQ.
Sorry for all the capital letters but it all seems so obvious.
the latest polls showed Hillary beating eveyone includin that former New Yorker who was thrice married and who apprently met his 3d wife while at a groovy NYC "club" while still married to his second wife so for a whil he lieved with has Gay buddies .......you know, the one who is pro abortion?? She is even beating him.
I pray we get a real and effective antiterror policy before we are hit again. LIKE CATCHING OBL.
Tony Soprano would have had him about 5 years ago by now. Bush is pathetic and a failure. Delusional by now, if not actually treasonous. I think there is a level of gros incompetence/danger to the nation which qualifies as treasonous. OR maybe his underlings should relieve him of command for being o unsound mind, like when this happens in those submarine movies.
Yours patriotically,
It's obvious that Bush is actually hiding Osama Bin Laden in the White House -- that is, when Barack Obama is not making public appearances. (Think about it: has anyone ever seem OBL and B. Hussein Obama together at the same time? Didn't THINK so...)
Concerning Hillary's aparent invincibility: what towering hypocrite WOULDN'T support the wife of a shameless womanizer who mendaciously supports the rights of women while cheating on his wife, who is so blinded by her own ambition that she licks gall while waiting her turn to lead the lemmings? Heckfire, we all know that 96% of self-identified towering hypocrites intend to vote Democrat.
Finally, SD's illiterate reference to the the film version of The Caine Mutiny would be spot-on, were it not patently obvious that the entire Democrat party is playing Tom Keefer to Joe Lieberman's Barney Greenwald.
Posted by: Rey Smith on July 22, 2007 03:13 PMThis upcoming election will see many good R candidates flushed just like the election(s) after Watergate.
Posted by: Fred is okay on July 22, 2007 06:06 PMUnlike Watergate, no scandal will ruin the candidates. The war (which has a similar debilatating effect as Watergate had) in Iraq will be their downfall and for any R to have a chance, they absolutely must distance themselves from the stench of the current administration and propose a new direction, which would have to include withdrawl and redeployment elsewhere. If Fred doesn't clearly articulate this in his campaign - it won't matter if Fred ever gets in. That's reality - so face it !
Posted by: KS on July 22, 2007 09:41 PM
Now granted, Fred is an actor as well and we've all seen Law and Order, but I was raised in Nashville. I've known Fred to be the sort of candidate who is unwavering and dependable on his word for the long haul, and well, given the other options, he is the only candidate I trust. I know it's just me, but I feel that he's America's best choice in 2008 to rebuild all that was previously destroyed in this country in addition to giving more gravtias to State's Rights by being that sort of Barry Goldwaterish/Reaganesque candidate.
Who will be his running mate? Surprising though it is, I'm almost certain is will be Rudy Giuliani
America needs a non--traditional candidate...one who will unite the country like it was after Sept. 11th. On the GOP side I think Thompson is the guy, on the Dem's side I see it as Obama. I would imagine America is tired of partisan politics (given the record low ratings for Congress & PUSA) and the (poorly managed) Iraq War. They need to feel that we're moving forward rather than trying to screw the other side over with partisan witch hunts. Politics needs a new era in which the bickering stops and things at least appear to get done.
Too bad this will never happen. It will be Clinton vs. Giuliani in '08. AOnce the PUSA dust settles America will again return to 'politics as usual'.
Hey, Sparky. Try eight months. It only seems like two years of doing nothing.
Politics needs a new era in which the bickering stops and things at least appear to get done.
I agree. You start.
Posted by: jimg on July 23, 2007 11:29 AMI agree. You start.
I already write letters to my representatives, doesn't seem to change anything. I'll keep trying.
We are compling lists of volunteers and soliciting donations. We are NOT part of a Thompson "campaign" per se because he has not registered to run--yet.
More to come in the following weeks, but in the meantime check out www.imwithFred.com and sign up if you want to be part of the most exciting campaign since Ronald Reagan.
Posted by: John425 on July 23, 2007 12:53 PMOr more likely the most pathetic one since Ford vs. Carter.
Posted by: Cato on July 23, 2007 01:10 PMI especially it 'think' will fire things up should the "Goreacle"....
Posted by: Robert-Allen on July 23, 2007 01:57 PMI especially it 'think' will fire things up should the "Goreacle"....
Posted by: Robert-Allen on July 23, 2007 01:57 PMI especially it 'think' will fire things up should the "Goreacle"....
Posted by: Robert-Allen on July 23, 2007 01:57 PMI'm hoping for interesting candidates to win on each side but both parties have a pretty clear system for securing the nomination. I'm not holding my breath that a break from the mold candidate is going to win either parties nomination. There's just too much precedent (remember how quickly Bush Sr. shut down Buchanan).
IMHO, Fred Thompson will jump in when he thinks it's right. There's always a crowd who wants to decide for him (or anyone else) and waits to be served. Why don't we just mill about smartly and see if his decision on when to enter the race officially is smart and then base our support for him (or anyone else) on the smartness of that and the millions of other decisions that will have to make between now and November 2008. GWB ran two fairly decent campaigns and won based on the totality of them, not on any single decision he had to make.
I'll still walk my precincts and chase the base in 2008, doesn't matter who runs against whoever we finally pick.
Posted by: Bob R on July 23, 2007 03:31 PMI have called myself a Democrat since I was a youngster. But like Reagan, Fred simply says what he thinks with no prequalificaiton weasle talk. That is what I like about him. And like when I voted for Reagan, I think I could vote for Fred as well. And if Hillary was the Democrat candidate, then I would use every resource at my disposal to see her defeated.
Any other Democrat would be better if they happen to win the election. Granted, I deplore the way Iraq is being handled, but where is American ingenuity when it comes to finding solutions to big problems ? Politicians have stopped listening to their constituents when it comes to finding solutions - but instead listen to special interest groups and corporations.
Posted by: KS on July 23, 2007 06:41 PM1) McCain's campaign is dying. Fred will get most of the McCain-ites who are not fans of amnesty but like McCain on the war issue.
2) Thompson's polls are becoming more steady and much more decisive. In Florida, he's 1 point behind Giuliani, and is leading in polls in South Carolina (very important), Missouri, and is slowly working his way up the chain in Nevada. And he hasn't announced yet! This is HUGE!
3) He does not have to report just how much money he has raised until the Q3 reports in late September. If he announces at Labor Day, like a lot of people think he will, he will be able to come out swinging with a heavy dose of cash.
Also, there's one big thing that Fred has done that few of the other candidates have done. Fred has hit a home run with YOUNGER voters, those who are willing to get up and volunteer for his campaign. He has an army of College and Young Republicans at his disposal now...and I think he'll be able to use that to his advantage.
I just want to see if Fred is willing to take on a governor as a running mate. Say someone like Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota.
Posted by: Yomi Mizuhara on July 25, 2007 01:22 AMIn my opinion, a Thompson/Powell ticket would completely destroy the Dems apparatus and bring forth a new era of integrity to our great country. Please keep in mind too that ever since 2000, I've been a firm supporter of Third Party politics, but a potential Thompson candidacy has given me good reason to look in a new direction.
Posted by: Robert-Allen on July 25, 2007 09:34 AMYeah it's important till someone launches a smear campaign. See the McCain incident in South Carolina in 2000. A anonymous push poll (aka Msmear campaign) killed his lead in SC.
If the powers that be in the GOP determine that Thompson is not a worthy successor to Bush they will sink him and pave the way to the person they feel best fits the job.
From a conservative economic standpoint gay marriage would increase the tax base and fuel the economy since many same-sex couples tend to be gainfully employed in high income jobs.
I was merely speaking about the conservative GOP base, which unfortunately still seems to use this issue as a fear tactic to secure large donations, which leads me to believe that Mr. Giuliani will have a difficult time receiving the nomination given his voting record on this matter and the current hardliner opinion, which, while a bit dated, is nonetheless still with us today. While Mr. Thompson seems to be a supporter of State's Rights, he will not, I believe be the one shouting for any sort of discriminatory amendment to be enshrined in the Constitution nor will he attempt to strike down DOMA. In my opinion, this makes him a bit of a centrist on the matter.
Posted by: Robert-Allen on July 26, 2007 12:27 AMI was merely speaking about the conservative GOP base, which unfortunately still seems to use this issue as a fear tactic to secure large donations, which leads me to believe that Mr. Giuliani will have a difficult time receiving the nomination given his voting record on this matter and the current hardliner opinion, which, while a bit dated, is nonetheless still with us today. While Mr. Thompson seems to be a supporter of State's Rights, he will not, I believe be the one shouting for any sort of discriminatory amendment to be enshrined in the Constitution nor will he attempt to strike down DOMA. In my opinion, this makes the former Senator a bit of a centrist on the matter.
Posted by: Robert-Allen on July 26, 2007 12:27 AMI was merely speaking about the conservative GOP base, which unfortunately still seems to use this issue as a fear tactic to secure large donations, which leads me to believe that Mr. Giuliani will have a difficult time receiving the nomination given his voting record on this matter and the current hardliner opinion, which, while a bit dated, is nonetheless still with us today. While Mr. Thompson seems to be a supporter of State's Rights, he will not, I believe be the one shouting for any sort of discriminatory amendment to be enshrined in the Constitution nor will he attempt to strike down DOMA. In my opinion, this makes the former Senator a bit of a centrist on the matter.
Posted by: Robert-Allen on July 26, 2007 12:27 AMI was merely speaking about the conservative GOP base, which unfortunately still seems to use this issue as a fear tactic to secure large donations, which leads me to believe that Mr. Giuliani will have a difficult time receiving the nomination given his voting record on this matter and the current hardliner opinion, which, while a bit dated, is nonetheless still with us today. While Mr. Thompson seems to be a supporter of State's Rights, he will not, I believe be the one shouting for any sort of discriminatory amendment to be enshrined in the Constitution nor will he attempt to strike down DOMA. In my opinion, this makes the former Senator a bit of a centrist on the matter.
Posted by: Robert-Allen on July 26, 2007 12:28 AM