Credit to Eric Devericks at the Seattle Times for his accurate cartoon in today's paper about John McCain's recent travails. One could quibble a bit with how much the Iraq war is actually hurting McCain with likely Republican primary voters, but the truth is the immigration issue has devastated his campaign and many members of the Republican base are dissatisfied with McCain for a laundry list of other reasons.
On the heels of his campaign's implosion earlier this week, the news just keeps getting worse. The cash-on-hand situation is even bleaker than first reported, even more staff are gone in Iowa, and some of the remaining press staff are rumored to be departing soon as well.
Such news coverage will inevitably feed the downward spiral of plummeting poll numbers and fundraising. Witness this bit from Rasmussen's latest poll:
Results throughout the week were stable for all candidates except McCain. The man from Arizona earned 14% support in the poll on Monday and Tuesday nights before slipping to 10% on Wednesday and Thursday. Interestingly, that support did not flow to any other candidate; the number of undecideds grew from 18% early in the week to 22% later in the week. On Tuesday, the McCain campaign organization imploded when the campaign manager, chief strategist, and other top officials left.
It's actually quite sad. Whatever one's political persuasion McCain is an honorable public servant. To see a person's candidacy collapse so badly is jarring, especially if you've ever been a part of a major campaign. Every telling of the tale - two of the best of which are in the Politico and the Washington Post - is a case study on how not to run this sort of electoral effort. Veteran campaign hands can read the coverage and be left shaking their heads at how the campaign organization itself could have made so many mistakes, even beyond the challenges McCain's candidacy had with the Republican base.
I'm guessing McCain is still coming to town in a few days, but I can't imagine the mood will be festive.
Posted by Eric Earling at July 15, 2007 01:56 PM | Email ThisWhat a waste. McCain should resign from the Senate. It's the best thing he could do for the country.
Posted by: Rey Smith on July 15, 2007 02:54 PMI think you're right it's unlikely McCain will drop out, at least for quite a while. Put it's real conjecture where his supporters may go next. McCain and Thompson have some similarities, but also some real differences. Moreover, no candidate's supporters can be easily stereotyped in the way you describe given the complexity of the field and the multiplicity of reasons people are drawn to given candidates. McCain voters are not going to "evaporate." Likely primary voters are still going to be inclined to vote, it's simply a question of which of the three remaining top tier candidates does the best job of attracting them if McCain is viewed as a dead duck come next January.
Posted by: Eric Earling on July 15, 2007 04:42 PMThe voters haven't evaporated, but McCain's support has. That's just another way of describing a "free fall", as you put it.
McCain committed political suicide with his support for the Kennedy/La Raza immigration amnesty. McCain is already a dead duck, or should we say "un vato muerto"...
Posted by: Rey Smith on July 15, 2007 05:52 PM[1] ... He's been on the tube a lot in the last week saying that he would not drop out; and:
[2] ... Since the spending limit per Presidential candidate for all primaries is $40.9 million, if I have the numbers right his campaign can still apply for Federal matching funds (don't know if he runs into individual state primary limits, and no time to research). Matching funds and ruthless economizing together with whatever minimal contributions he can still raise will probably allow him to continue a bare-bones campaign thru NH and SC.
Either way it doesn't matter, the end result will almost certainly be the same; 4 all of the above and previously discussed reasons and others mentioned at length on many of the Sunday talk shows today:
National campaigns don't recover from this level of pervasive cratering. Right now McCain is on track to finish AT BEST third in ANY of IA, NH, SC, and FL. If he is not officially gone before then, I expect he will be same right after the NH primary; or at the very latest after SC.
Time to leave the historians to chronicle the rise and astounding fall of Sen. McCain's 2008 effort, and get back to forward-focus on who can best beat Clinton or Obama or Clinton/Obama... to me a Clinton-Obama ticket is the scariest of all (remember Obama is only 46; he has more than enough time to wait for another shot at the top job).
SIDEBAR: With the usual ''baring extraordinary circumstances'' caveat, I think the (D) race is effectively down to the ''top 2''.... Yeah; I know: Edwards is still leading (barely) in IA. But after that he's likely toast.
Posted by: Methow Ken on July 15, 2007 06:42 PMHere's a good summation on the matching fund issue. In short, it would seriously hamstring any campaign in the primaries, let alone the general.
Posted by: Eric Earling on July 15, 2007 08:30 PMHe's going no where but down in numbers.
Posted by: Andy on July 15, 2007 09:18 PMThanks 4 the pointer to the Atlantic Online piece. I didn't realize the Federal funds primary limitations were that constraining. I was already convinced that it's over 4 McCain; even more so now.
Posted by: Methow Ken on July 15, 2007 10:22 PMHis support of the troops is shadowed by all of his follies, including the MF Act.
Alas, he is a man of few seasons.
Goodbye
Posted by: Snuffy on July 16, 2007 08:02 PM