July 10, 2007
That Sound You Heard Today...

...was one of the great pre-primary campaign implosions of our time. John McCain's senior campaign staff has been eviscerated.

David Postman recently reported that McCain will be in town recently, duly noting the woes afflicting the campaign...as understood then at least. Well, the Straight Talk Express is running on fumes, suffering from multiple flat tires, and it looks like the radiator just blew.

Having worked on a decent sized campaign - Slade Gorton's in 2000 - I can't see this turn of events as anything but the last nail in the coffin. McCain already faced huge challenges because of his history of crossing swords with the Republican base, but the firing of over half the campaign staff followed up the near total departure of the senior campaign team is devastating. What's more, the departures evidently weren't amicable. Based on the coverage from Marc Ambinder and the Politico as the day's news unfolded it's clear the staff was talking. It's a sure sign things have been ugly for a while.

Bluntly, it means McCain's campaign is all but over, which Patrick Ruffini put about as well as anyone today. It's only a question of time now. It's also a stark reminder of something Kate O'Beirne put quite succinctly: "The latest upheavel [sic] reminds us that senators typically have no management experience."

Yet another reason why Senators have trouble winning the right to move offices down Pennsylvania Avenue, which is probably even more of an issue in this cycle with its elongated election season that will tax the ability's of even the best-run campaigns.

Now let's just hope we don't have to suffer through too many non-conservative pundits breathlessly claiming Iraq is the issue that did McCain in with the Republican base.

Addendum: Argh. Right before finally hitting "publish" on this post I ran across this analysis from the P-I's Strange Bedfellows blog that totally omits mention of the issue that killed McCain with Republican primary voters and donors that last several weeks: immigration reform. They still don't get it.

UPDATE: incomplete sentence in 2nd paragraph fixed.

Wed AM UPDATE: I have to give credit to a lot of the straight news coverage on this story for appropriately discussing immigration. The New York Times and Washington Post are good examples. We'll see how the pundits do now.

Posted by Eric Earling at July 10, 2007 10:56 PM | Email This
Comments
1. Because, Eric, the immigration bill was W's. Why would the press stain McKainnedy with that? (said with a smirk)
Sometimes even the maverick has to pay the piper.

Posted by: PC on July 10, 2007 10:55 PM
2. Did you see the AP story? They claim that McCain is dropping in the polls because of his support for winning the Iraq war. They fail to suggest why the other candidates who support winning are NOT dropping in the polls.

Posted by: Calvin A on July 11, 2007 06:54 AM
3. McCain opposed the Bush tax cuts. He demonstrates a failure to grasp basic economics.

McCain is the author of shackles on free speech (Campaign Finance reform)

McCain and his gang of 14 successfully gutted the ability of Bush get more conservative judges on the bench because the Senate filibuster wasn't sweep away.

He is really weak on security bacause of his opposition to almost all forms of ruff interrogations, except when they are necessary.

His stand on immigration changes and this current effort is unpopular with much of the country.

It should be no suprise that McCain's support is dropping.

Posted by: Gary B on July 11, 2007 09:12 AM
4. McCain might be in an odd position where acquiring a vice-presidential running mate way too early may be the only way to save his campaign. He may need a new face to draw more money. What would happen if he announced Lieberman, or Newt will be his running mate - or just anyone for that matter? He could steal some attention, get more funding and look a bit more presidential.

Posted by: Doug on July 11, 2007 09:39 AM
5. I wouldn't count McCain out.

I do find it surprising that so many Republicans attack him so virulently. Certainly R's (I'm an I) have enough experience with competition not to piss in their own boat?

I think maturity may be the operative word.

And McCain has that, as well as the personal ability to stand up to these sorts of quite obvious 'losers'.

BTW, love the Lieberman idea - is there any basis for it?

-Douglas Tooley
Tacoma, WA

Posted by: Douglas Tooley on July 11, 2007 10:19 AM
6. In a recent prior thread by Eric on McCain's problems, I said then that I wasn't quite ready to agree that the McCain campaign was at the fully mortal stage yet. But after the pervasive implosion we have just witnessed, I sense that I need to ''revise and extend'' my prior remarks:

A reality check sez it's over:
Wiley Coyote just stepped off (or, in the case of the STE,''drove off'') the cliff chasing the Road Runner, and the only question is how long it will take until the inevitable final impact with the canyon floor far below..... and Sen. McCain ain't gonna have Wiley's amazing recuperative powers.

There are several more good pieces on the McCain implosion at the top of the RealClearPolitics main page for 11 July. Two of several of the good comments from those pieces:

"The campaign was run like a Senate office," said someone who deals often with McCain. "That just doesn't work."

and:
''McCain now has less cash on hand than Ron Paul.''
(think about that last one a little: Truly astounding.)

Also remember that this is not the first time Sen. McCain has ''reorganized'' his 2008 campaign (although the latest shake-up went way above prior events).

Perhaps what jumps out at me the most about the McCain implosion:
How come it took so long for McCain & Co. to notice and take effective action on the critical problem they were facing; i.e.:
They were hemmoraging money and going broke fast, without getting any real traction.
One of the core abilities you look for in a President and his senior staff is the ability to be forward-looking, and to anticipate and respond proactively to looming problems before they get to the fully-blown FUBAR stage. That it got this bad before action was taken does not speak well for effective management ability.

Finally, if McCain is now going to try and revert to the Rick Davis ''insurgent style'' campaign that focuses on IA-NH-SC-NV: How does that work ??.. The reason McCain won NH in 2000 was that he swept the Independents; that's not gonna happen this time. Latest RCP averages show McCain 3rd or 4th in all of those states, and in single digits in 2 of them, with no indication that he is gaining in any of them.

My objective conclusion:
Eric has it right; for all of the above and other reasons:
It's over for McCain; he's the political walking dead. Which as I said in prior is kind of sad:
While disagreeing strongly with McCain on some issues, he has courage and is willing to take unpopular stands because he thinks they are right.

FOOTNOTE:
WRT Doug's comment @ #4 on how picking a VP now might help:
Sorry:
He would get a quick mention in the MSM about doing something out-of-the-box as a lead-in, followed immedidately by more long disertations about another act of desperation by a disintigating and broke campaign.
And there is nobody he could pick as VP that would accept that would result in any noticeable uptick in contributions.

Giuliani, Romney, and Thompson are now firmly entrenched (for the moment) as the (R) ''big 3''.

Posted by: Methow Ken on July 11, 2007 11:14 AM
7. Certainly R's (I'm an I) have enough experience with competition not to piss in their own boat?

Sure, Doug. And I agree. Unfortunately, McCain is the one who's had a history of 'pissing in his own boat' and it's a major reason why he never really stood a chance of getting the nomination. Add that to McCain-Feingold and his bullheaded support on immigration 'reform' and I think it's amazing he lasted this long.

I, for one, am very happy he's finally getting his comeuppance. You can stick your finger in the eyes of the people you need for support for only so long.

Posted by: jimg on July 11, 2007 11:23 AM
8. Well John McCain did say we Americans are too lazy to pick lettuce for $50/hour. He should hire his cherished illegal aliens. They will do the job Americans won't do - vote for him.

Posted by: pbj on July 11, 2007 11:56 AM
9. #5 Douglas T.

I think maturity may be the operative word.
______________________________________

You must be kidding right!

McCain is quite known for being a bully and throwing fits.

Posted by: Army Medic/Vet on July 11, 2007 12:36 PM
10. I understand that John Edwards is out on the stump with his "Poverty Tour" for people with no hope or money....Mc Cain Headquarters will be his first stop!!!

Posted by: Pacific Grove Phlash on July 12, 2007 12:45 AM
11. with mccain hanging by a thread, guiliani is next up--he's being swift boated by the firefighters, er, heroes of 9/11.

Posted by: dinesh on July 12, 2007 08:18 AM
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