June 18, 2007
Presidential Round-up

I guess no one has posted on it here yet, but Dave Reichert endorsed Rudy Giuliani for President.

The P-I runs an AP story on Mitt Romney's momentum in Iowa and New Hampshire. The analysis by one pol that Romeny "'is now positioned as the front-runner for the nomination'" seems more than a little hasty though.

Meanwhile local Fredheads can rejoice about a new poll in South Carolina from a reputable firm showing Thompson vaulting into the lead at the same time as John McCain absolutely plummets. South Carolina may well be the first "must win" state for Thompson's campaign, much like Romney probably has to do likewise in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Posted by Eric Earling at June 18, 2007 07:47 AM | Email This
Comments
1. Romney is playing things by the book. He concentrates on Iowa and New Hampshire. He builds up his national campaign more slowly. He is the frontrunner in the "traditional" states.

Do we, as a country, want a traditionalist in the sense that terrorism (only issue in my book) is nontraditional and the method to defeat it is also nontraditional?

But, I didn't like it when Giuliani and McCain snub the game, either by conceding Iowa straw poll. On the other hand, are they the nontraditionalists we need to win the war on terrorism?

No answers, no more questions. Just random thoughts on what I am looking and thinking about.

Posted by: swatter on June 18, 2007 08:22 AM
2. More and more it looks like McCain, Romney and Thompson are battling to the be the alternative to Guiliani. The momentum - FOR NOW - is with Thompson. This thing is very, very fluid.

Posted by: Chris Vance on June 18, 2007 09:34 AM
3. I think the "Big Three" will soon be Guiliani, Romney and Thompson. I think after the immigration debacle McCain has topped out on support. I think any of Guiliani, Romney and Thompson would make good presidents. It should be an interesting race.

Bill H

Posted by: Bill H on June 18, 2007 09:55 AM
4. > we need to win the war on terrorism

How do we do that, by spreading capitalism and democracy throughout the Middle East? We'd be better off leaving them alone to fight their own civil wars.

Democracy has done wonders Palestine.

Posted by: Cato on June 18, 2007 09:55 AM
5. Swatter & others- I hope you will try to answer Cato's question. And before you answer HOW we can win this war, please define WHAT you mean by winning it.

Posted by: Bruce on June 18, 2007 10:13 AM
6. We will be having the third of a series of straw polls at the monthly South Sound Ronald Reagan Republican Club (ronaldreaganclub.net) meeting on the 21st of June. Will let you know if the results change from previous posted polls.

Posted by: Dick Muri on June 18, 2007 10:26 AM
7. Chris,

Of the three, the only one who will get the support of the social/Christian conservatives is Thompson.

Posted by: Don on June 18, 2007 10:57 AM
8. #7
Well, the conventional wisdom is that fact is what has prompted the Thompson candidacy and I suspect it is pretty accurate when it comes to conservative ACTIVISTS.

Remember, however, that activists of any sort are a small percentage of the population. What matter is what Republican primary voters do. So far polls show that most of them are willing to support candidates the activists won't support. (ie, Rudy McRomney)

We'll see. Long way to go.

Posted by: Chris Vance on June 18, 2007 11:46 AM
9. Bruce, you and Cato only need the first item in about a hundred item essay, so I will give it to you.

First, you stand tough in Iraq, even if it means you get voted out of office. There, now you are gone.

I would hope you two Libertarians could see how fragile the Middle East is in relation to Iran and the very real potential for World War. The takeover of Palestine by Iran (aka Hamas), the very real danger of Musharaff getting booted, Syria (aka Iran), the Lebanon mess (aka Iran) should show how close Iran is to realize their dream of the Second Mongrel Horde and the coming second Dark Ages.

Posted by: swatter on June 18, 2007 11:47 AM
10. Please, Swatter!

1. It was "Mongol Horde," and they weren't Moslems.

2. Pagans, not Moslems, brought down Rome and ushered in the Dark Ages.

Posted by: Chris Vance on June 18, 2007 11:52 AM
11. As for Reichert, that's just a practical move. When your challenger is an Leftist Extremist like Darcy Burner, you are probably best to pick the most centered candidate to endorse.

Don't let this thread become an off topic Iraq troll rant. That's what those folks want.

Posted by: Jeff B. on June 18, 2007 11:57 AM
12. Rudy is certainly looking pretty strong right now if you look at the next line in that Gallup poll. That is a head to head with Thompson Rudy's lead is larger.

Although, again, it is early and Thompson has done no campaigning. But it does show that he has some ground to make up.

Romney is playing a strategy that I have always thought was smart. That is to really focus on the early primary states and hope your national numbers increase. Although virtually every other pundit has always said that eventually your national numbers MUST increase before those primary states as there are some other indicators that are just as if not more important. I have never looked that deep into those other indicators but just have taken the word of those who have been watching and researching presidential primaries for years.

They have said that even though you may be focusing on those early states, and you may be showing some strong polling numbers there, that for some reason if there is not a national surge in your numbers that those local numbers are a mirage'.

The reality? We'll see if Romney can either buck history or if he can raise his national numbers.

The one thing Romney really has going for him is that he is a strong administrator (read: Executive) and has a good team in place. While Romney is not my first choice as nominee I'll give him props for being a solid executive. He has demonstrated that several times over in other venues.

yip yip

Posted by: Coyote on June 18, 2007 12:06 PM
13. > Middle East is in relation to Iran and the very real potential for World War.

Sometimes it takes war to bring peace...look at Post-World War II Europe. They've managed to put aside their differences and form a single unified currency. They even have a Govt. that is represented by multiple members of different countries.

Japan, the US, and China seem to have put their differences aside for now and eagerly conduct massive amounts of trade with each other.

Maybe the best thing is to let them duke it out, let the bigger players ( US/Europe/Asia) sit on the sidelines and try to keep it contained to the middle east. It seems they have some serious issues they need to work out.

Posted by: Cato on June 18, 2007 12:15 PM
14. #8
Chris,

If Guiliani is the nominee, and he won't be; social and Christian conservatives will sit out the election in very large numbers. And it won't just be activists who stay home.

My first preference is Brownback, but I am realistic enough to know he has no chance of winning. Thompson is the only candidate who would definitely defeat any Democrat. I think many knowledgeable Democrats are scared of a Hillary nomination because many people would be motivated to vote against her and take out many reps and senators along with her.

Posted by: Don on June 18, 2007 12:49 PM
15. Don,

People have been saying that about Guiliani for over a year now and it has yet to be reflected in the polls. We'll see.

Posted by: Chris Vance on June 18, 2007 01:15 PM
16. I must admit the idea of Thompson saying we're goin to defcon 5 sounds better to me than Giuliani saying it..
Giuliani would have a nasily an almost weasly "were goin to Defcon 5".
Maybe Thompson could be VP so we could have him on the ticket specifically to handle the "were goin to defcon 5" role.

Posted by: Publicbulldog on June 18, 2007 01:32 PM
17. #14

I think Christian conservatives truly struggle with Romney also. Regardless. I am a Christian and will absolutely refuse to sit out. That is a cop out for a loser. It will ensure disaster. A bunch of self righteous steaming horse manure.

If Guiliani is indeed nominated (which he may very well be) and Hillary the evil scorned witch, Christians best figure it out PDQ and get off the pot to the poles! Those that pull "I just can't vote because of my convictions" are feeble minded. Vote for a reasonable person who may be persuaded ... or let the socialist unstable feminazi carry us to economic and foreign oblivion. How can they (nay, how dare they) sleep at night and wake up to President Clinton again? Whom then I ask, did they truly serve? Themselves and the enemy. That is who.


Posted by: Paul on June 18, 2007 01:36 PM
18. 'Remember,however,that activists of any sort are a
small percentage of the population'

Chris Vance is it any wonder that you didn't make
much of a party chairman. Its the activists that
make the party go. It just something in the state
of Washington that the Gop leadership doesn't seem
understand. Going to a Presidential primary like
the state gop has done here is not how you build
a party.I have to wonder if you and your buddies in the establishment crowd will ever realize you don't how to win anything and you never will.

Posted by: Phil Spackman on June 18, 2007 02:13 PM
19. Don,

I am a social conservative and will vote for whichever candidate has the best chance to beat Hillary. It is imperative that radical Islam is stopped. I don't see any of the candidates other than McCain appointing a Supreme Court justice that isn't a strict constructionist so I don't have to worry about abortion right now, that is for the Senate races, not the President.

Any candidate who lies or changes positions to further their career depending on the electorate is automatically DQ'd as well. So far the only viable candidates left are Rudy, Thompson and Huckabee, but at this stage Rudy has the best chance to beat Hillary. If it's like that in February that is where my vote will be. If Thompson has the best chance by then he'll have my vote.

Posted by: Doug on June 18, 2007 02:54 PM
20. Phil @ 18

You want to explain your outburst?

What's inaccurate or disparaging about the statement that activists are a small percentage of the population? Or are you just running around with a chip on your shoulder looking to take offense?

Posted by: jopalm on June 18, 2007 03:23 PM
21. Hey, I'm equal opportunity. If the shoe fits, then wear it. I don't care if they were Muslims or not, the Mongrels came from the terrorists in that part of the world. They were hell-bent on destroying civilization.

Any other inferences are entirely yours.

And I get your point that not all Muslims are bad. And I get your point Rs shouldn't be drawing those inferences, like they shouldn't get the label they are anti-Hispanic if they want the borders secured. Point taken.

Posted by: swatter on June 18, 2007 04:10 PM
22. I disagree with Don (#7). I am a social conservative and a born-again Christian and I am endorsing and enthusiastically supporting Giuliani. He is our best chance of winning and he is our 80% friend.

Posted by: Eunice Burns on June 18, 2007 04:36 PM
23. Has anyone looked at The Sheriff's Congressional voting record?? Yikes - Reichert is one of the most liberal R's in the entire House - and fast becoming one of Nancy Pelosi's most trusted rubber-stamps. (I wish this were hyperbole..)

Check this out: On passage of Tancredo's recent successful amendment to the Homeland Security bill, that withholds federal funds from 'sanctuary' cities such as Seattle and San Fransisco, and which passed 234-189, 49 Demoncats voted for it while just 9 Republicans voted against.

Guess who saddled up and led that posse of nine liberal R's??!

-JP

Posted by: Jefferson Paine on June 18, 2007 05:56 PM
24. Its the activists that make the party go.


No, Phil, actually, they don't, and they never have, in either party. And when they have the most influence, they have tended to destroy what they are working for.


Of course, this depends entirely on your definition of an 'Activist', but given what I know of you, I'm pretty sure I know what you mean by it, and it's totally and completely wrong. Activists of your sort are, at best, a quarter of what really makes the party run. 10% is more likely.


Let's put it this way: "Activists" of your sort, ran the campaigns of Howard Dean and Alan Keys, respectively.

Posted by: Cliff on June 18, 2007 09:29 PM
25. If the state GOP is interested in getting new activists they could get them by the hundreds if they welcomed a more libertarian platform right now. There are hundreds of Ron Paul supporters in this state calling themselves republicans for the first time and looking for ways to become part of the GOP. Lets hope they are not discouraged or worse for trying to join the GOP tent.

From the sounds of Vances comments it sounds like all activists (libertarian leaning or not) are discouraged by party leadership.

Posted by: Travis Pahl on June 18, 2007 10:21 PM
26. Travis @ 25 reads earlier comment by Chris Vance as meaning state GOP leaders discourage all activists. Note what Chris actually said was:

''.... activists of any sort are a small percentage of the population. What matter is what Republican primary voters do.''

There is not even a hint in that statement about discouraging activists; Chris just (quite rightly, IMO) pointed out that said activists are a small percentage of the voting population. And for whatever my opinion as an activist is worth, I have no doubt Chris is absolutely right about that. . . . In fact from what I have seen since attending my 1st GOP State convention in 2000 and a couple since then, I would venture that it might even be accurate to say that serious activists are a TINY percentage of the total voters.

Posted by: Methow Ken on June 18, 2007 11:21 PM
Post a comment
Name:


Email Address:


URL:


Comments:


Remember info?