I fully expect the best count for Democrats in the all general election tabulations will be the first run of absentees, showing up a little after 8 pm from most county auditors. In my personal observation of competitive races in 2003, 2004, and 2005, both statewide and in assorted local campaigns, the first count of absentee ballots has always been the best batch for Democrats (excluding special ballots counted at the end such as provisionals, spoiled ballots, etc.). Early absentees have been better than poll votes and later absentees in all three of the years cited above. Moreover, the trends of this election, with potential movement to the GOP would further support such an outcome.

Just a thought to keep in mind. That may not hold entirely given the move to all-mail balloting in many counties, but I suspect the general trend will still be consistent. In addition, remember that in the counties with no polling locations, the normal practice now is to release one count of absentees tabulated a little after 8 pm, and then that's it for the night. With the exception of places like King County where some poll voting still occurs, the analysis can begin forthwith because in most cases, we won't see any additional counts from those counties for a day or two.