November 07, 2006
What to Expect Today: Exit Polls

Ah, yes, that tempting friend that comes to us every couple years, promising to be faithful, then he screws it all up when it's time to live up to his promises. Exit polls were wrong in 2000, 2002, and 2004. Should we trust them this year? Um, what do you think?

Here's a good look from the Washington Post at the actual logistics of how the exit poll results are supposed to be handled today. I wouldn't quite call if Fort Knox, but it seems the media folks are really uninterested in a repeat of 2004 (or 2002...or 2000), where some of the national press were doing subtle dances on the TV screen before the real counts came out. In theory, it all means no leak to Drudge and the rest of the blogosphere.

More importantly, the story cites the fact there will be no exit polling in House races. We'll just have to rely on the actual votes (and thus depending on results, hopefully avoid liberal conspiracies that the exit polls were right, and it was the voters who were wrong). Also, states with heavy use of early voting and/or mail-in ballots, such as Washington, seem particularly irrelevant for exit polling, so for local purposes they are probably especially useless for us, lame liberal attempts to the contrary.

For what it's worth, the RNC has put out a press release, warning about exit polls. On quick scan, it seems to contain the usual arguments.

Consider yourself duly warned.

Posted by Eric Earling at November 07, 2006 07:30 AM | Email This
Comments
1. I think it was Dean Barnett of hughhewitt.com that gave an interesting reason why polls favor Defeatocrats: conservatives have lives and don't want to waste the time, liberals have a need to talk and lecture anyone who will listen.

Posted by: Obi-Wan on November 7, 2006 07:58 AM
2. This isn't a comment specific to exit polls, but about the possible outcome of today's elections. This could be quite interesting if some of the more conservative Dems pull off victories. They will, by being elected, reflect the values of their specific constituents - OK those who chose to vote. They'll then be thrown into the Lib hatefest that passes for national politics. These newbies will come face to face with a difficult choice of following the Nancy Reid and Harry Pelosi dems or following the more conservative streak of the folks back home. My guess is that dem controlled House is not going to lurch too far to the left. We'll have 2 years of inaction. The loons on the left will try to impeach Bush, investigate "warrant less-wire-taps", "secret monitoring of financial transactions", but none of that will go too far. In 2008 the GOP will hold on to the White House (come on, Hilary? Seriously?) and take back some House seats. The trick will be to hold them to their core GOP values-defense, small government, lower taxes-and take away the checkbook. Ciao, baby.

Posted by: KyGuy on November 7, 2006 08:14 AM
3. He refers to the 2000 election when the networks 'gave' FL twice. It is amusing that FOX only gave the results once from the same data and was correct. I know this is just paranoia, but could it be that the MSM is just a little partisan and was predicting their wants instead of the data? Nah - silly me, the MSM just reports the facts!

Posted by: Right said Fred on November 7, 2006 08:28 AM
4. What else to expect today? Too much rain, can't get to your polling place? Go anywhere and cast a Provisional Ballot (one of the legitimate reasons they exist).

Except we know King County verification of PB's is minimal...they just count them. I see a huge opportunity for the dishonest to cast multiple ballots by taking advantage of the misfortune of our friends & neighbors.

Posted by: dl on November 7, 2006 08:33 AM
5. Right said Fred...I would go a little farther and say MSM polls are realeased that reflect what they want to happen, but also with the hope to influence unvoted voters.

Posted by: dl on November 7, 2006 08:36 AM
6. Right said Fred, I remember watching one of the networks on election night in 2000 and will never forget some behind-the-scenes gremlin yelling out "We're losing Florida." Not "Democrats losing Florida" but "We".


Someone explain why this is a bad idea: Republicans need to seek out exit pollsters in one season, maybe two, and lie through our teeth, and with enough bad results put the bastards out of business.


Last, anyone who pays attention to exit polls and allows that to influence their voting doesn't deserve to exercise their franchise.

Posted by: Carol on November 7, 2006 08:40 AM
7. dl - I agree. It also keeps being forgotten that the MSM's first call for Gore was at 8:00 EST. The FL panhandle is on central time (from what I understand) and, coicindentaly of course, also happens to be more conservative. Sothey announced FL before the polls were closed trying to scare off R voters.

Posted by: Right said Fred on November 7, 2006 08:42 AM
8. Well, I voted today.

Against McGavick.

I really considered voting for him but I just couldn't do it. For if he became a US Senator that would have given him great influence within the Washington State Republican Party which he could use to put his people in and keep conservatives out.

I have experienced what Dan Evans and his people did and continue to do to the State Republicans and I didn't want the same to happen with McGavick. Before we take back this state we must take back the party for if RINOS win, what have the average conservative won.

Fear of the other guy wasn't enough. The same goes for Reichert. Hating Burner just wasn't enough for me.

Posted by: Steve on November 7, 2006 08:58 AM
9. Steve: I suspect you're not for real. Only a complete idiot would vote for someone who holds completely opposite values and agenda, as opposed to someone who doesn't quite match 100%. You're a phony, bud.

Posted by: katomar on November 7, 2006 09:05 AM
10. With friends like Steve, who needs enemies?

Posted by: Moondoggie on November 7, 2006 09:07 AM
11. Steve,

I guess I cancelled out you vote then. As a Democrat I wanted to vote for Cantwell and Burner, really I did. I just couldn't. Cantwell has done nothing for us and Burner is a radical with no experience.

Hating Bush just wasn't enough for me to vote for them.

Posted by: Doug on November 7, 2006 09:16 AM
12. Steve wants to vote for a Reagan Republican in Washington State. He obviously doesn't realize that it's better to vote for someone that you agree with 55% of the time rather than someone that you agree with 15% of the time.

Too bad for him, if he's real. I suspect he's a troll or an idiot. But my apologies and my sympathies if he really thinks that way.

Posted by: Larry on November 7, 2006 09:19 AM
13. Steve is like one of these "cunning" liberal cats i went to law school with, trying to use reverse psychology on us dumb conservatives. It almost worked too! At the voting booth, my left hand had to grab my right hand as it was about to ink in a vote for Aaron Dixon and Marcy Bruener!!...alas my left hand directed me to the "RINOs" on the ballot. Almost Steve, almost buddy.

Posted by: Bryson on November 7, 2006 09:25 AM
14. As recognition of media bias grows, so will people's refusal to answer any polling when asked. How will pollsters adjust their numbers to address a growing percentage of people who refuse to respond or lie in their responses? They will respond by giving their clients the results that they perceive their clients want, while trying to stay close to the perceived findings from othter pollsters. Polls will increasingly become more and more bias-driven than they already are.

Posted by: MJC on November 7, 2006 09:29 AM
15. Thank you Diebold for making exit polls obsolete.

"It's not how many votes you get that counts, it's who counts the votes"

Joseph Stalin

And you call us commies?

Bring back Checks and balances, I am not ready for Armagedon yet.

Posted by: danw on November 7, 2006 09:48 AM
16. OK, danw, you're not a commie, you're a socialist. Feel better?

Posted by: Joseph Stalin on November 7, 2006 10:18 AM
17. conservatives have lives and don't want to waste the time, liberals have a need to talk and lecture anyone who will listen

How does this explain Rush Limbaugh???

Polling is a complex art/science and there are many ways for inaccuracies to enter the process, but I guess some feeble-minded people prefer to attribute inaccuracies to conspiracies or a smug sense of moral superiority.

Posted by: Bruce on November 7, 2006 10:29 AM
18. Dan W

"It's not how many votes you get that counts, it's who counts the votes"

You don't have to convince us of that. It took 3 counts and 2 extra batches of ballots thrown in to get Christine Gregoire an extra 129 votes.

Bruce,

Linbaugh does it for a living. That is his life.

Posted by: RBE on November 7, 2006 10:36 AM
19. Give me a tax and spend D over the tax cut and spend even more R's. What hypocracy!

Posted by: Jim W on November 7, 2006 11:15 AM
20. #4: "What else to expect today? Too much rain, can't get to your polling place? Go anywhere and cast a Provisional Ballot (one of the legitimate reasons they exist).

Except we know King County verification of PB's is minimal...they just count them. I see a huge opportunity for the dishonest to cast multiple ballots by taking advantage of the misfortune of our friends & neighbors."

This is exactly what I'm afraid of -- that some shady liberal groups will bus people from the safe liberal districts in West Seattle and Seattle to the 8th to skew the results due to provisional balloting. Sam Reed needs to make sure nothing like that can happen!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: ferrous on November 7, 2006 11:38 AM
21. Jim W,
I would rather have a tax-cutting and spending-cutting congress. I would MUCH rather have a high deficit and low taxes then high taxes and no deficit. Why? Two reasons:

1. A high deficit exerts downward pressure on spending. That was part of the problem with the budget surplus--it encouraged excess spending!

2. Tax cuts, if they are a cut in the marginal tax rate, raise MORE revenue, not less. If you haven't noticed, the tax cuts that went into effect in 2003 (and created the booming economy we have had since then) have brought in TONS of revenue--that's why the budget deficit has been cut in half much sooner than expected.

Let's keep cutting taxes and not allow the budget to get to surplus in order to keep spending down!

I am not happy with the R's performance on spending, but they have performed terrifically on tax cuts, which has made the economy the envy of the world and has brought down the deficit.

You represent what most people fear about installing D's in congress--they will increase taxes and increase spending and tank the economy. No thanks!

Posted by: Bill H on November 7, 2006 12:21 PM
22. To be fair, no liberal conspiracy has it that the exit polls were right, and "the voters were wrong"; the conspiracy -- which the RNC's pre-mature press release will only make worse -- is that the exit polls had it right, and the voters were cheated by voting machine problems.

And .... surprise! Touchscreen voting problems in suburban St. Louis: a vote for McCaskill shows up as a vote for Talent.

Since Bush-Rove-Diebold hit the scene, that's incident No. 1,058 of an (R) being helped by a so-called "glitch." Still waiting for the first instance of a Dem getting a boost through one of these glitches... somewhere, anywhere.

Posted by: bill groupe on November 7, 2006 12:25 PM
23.
Gosh, Bill, ya think maybe Karl Rove is sitting inside one of them little boxes, changing
D votes to R votes? It MUST be a Karl Rovian dirty trick. He's GOT to be involved somehow. Maybe it's actually Rove who makes the machines; he is pretty handy...

Posted by: katomar on November 7, 2006 12:36 PM
24. Bill Groupe "Still waiting for the first instance of a Dem getting a boost through one of these glitches... somewhere, anywhere."

Here you go, New Jersey has ended your waiting with Menendez shennanigans

"In New Jersey, Republican officials said that nearly two dozen voters across the state had complained that when they entered the voting booth, the name of Senator Robert Menendez, a Democrat seeking re-election, was already lit up, indicating it had already been selected.

A party official, Mark Sheridan, told reporters that this had caused widespread confusion and had led some people who favored the Republican candidate, Thomas Kean, to vote inadvertently for Menendez."

Posted by: Bill H on November 7, 2006 01:55 PM
25. Some posters have mentioned provisional ballots and how they are handled/mishandled.

I find it interesting that the Darcy Burner website has been updated to display the following text:

"IMPORTANT NOTE: If you are a registered Washington voter and have not cast your ballot yet, you may cast a provisional ballot at any voting location."

Hmmm.

Posted by: ameslaker on November 7, 2006 02:10 PM
26. Hmmm, indeed, ameslaker. If Marcy wins, I smell dirty tricks via provisionals.

Posted by: ferrous on November 7, 2006 02:11 PM
27. Thanks guys - let's get the GOP in at any cost. We the only ones who knows how to do the country right.

Posted by: Wally on November 7, 2006 02:44 PM
28. So Wally, why don't you explain to us what the Democrats' strategy is to win the war in Iraq?

[crickets]

Posted by: Palouse on November 7, 2006 02:54 PM
29. I was flipping through the channels this morning and came across Queen Christine giving a press conference about the flooding. Besides dealing with the coffee gone sour a la Chrissy, I decided HOT DAMN! The wet weather REALLY does keep the Dems home! :)

Posted by: Ragnar Danneskold on November 7, 2006 03:04 PM
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