Mike McGavick has a fascinating ad out worth taking a look at (for those that can't stand the thought of Windows Media Player you can read about it here). The ad is clever on several fronts though it's tough to get a read on how it truly affects the race. Jerry Cornfield and David Postman each have coverage.
Speaking of that race, a couple of notes on recent public polls, which have generally not been so fun. Yet, the Zogby poll is particularly interesting since they've been polling in the race for months, and because it's evidently similar to McGavick's internal polls right now. I certainly believe McGavick is trailing, but not by the double digit margins in some public polls. That's George Nethercutt territory, and Mike's run a significantly better campaign than that.
One note on those public polls, the cross tabs of the last two Survey USA polls (here and here) show something exceedingly odd. McGavick's support in "Metro Seattle" is holding steady, down 38% - 55% in the earlier poll, down 40% - 55% in the latter. Yet, the polls claim McGavick dropped from a 52% - 42% lead in Eastern Washington in the 1st poll, to a 44% - 49% disadvantage in the 2nd. Similarly, Survey USA claims he went from a 48% - 46% lead in "Rural" Washington to a 34% - 57% deficit, while supposedly dropping from a 47% - 48% tie in non-Metro Seattle "Western Washington" to trailing 40% - 55%. I don't think any rational political mind can make the leap the bottom has dropped out of Mike McGavick's support in Eastern Washington, rural Washington, and non-Metro Seattle Western Washington in the last couple weeks, all while holding steady in the heart of the Seattle media market.
I'll have more to say in general on the topic of polls and their utility this year a little later, but in the meantime I give you the reader a couple highly entertaining ads from around the country this year for your viewing pleasure:
1) Perhaps the most devastating ad of the campaign season, coming from incumbent Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM) who uses nothing but debate footage of her opponent in a non-nasty, but brutally effective ad (just scroll down slightly at the link to view the ad).
2) Another great ad comes to us from Michael Steele's hard charging Maryland Senate race against Rep. Ben Cardin, which in the span of a couple weeks has moved from a "Likely Democrat" race to "Toss Up" in a rather blue state according to some analysts. Steele beat Cardin so badly in one debate Cardin backed out of an NAACP debate the next day (not a good move for Democrats below the Mason-Dixon line to skip such an event), and Steele is now picking up the endorsement of prominent Democrats in Washington, DC's suburbs, a region regarding which Cardin fumbled answers in his losing debate effort. The ad in question is Steele's response to Cardin's attempt at a "testimonies from the average Joe" ad. As far as politics go, it's high comedy.
As I said, more on the topic of polls to come.
I hate that he's falling into that moronic position of questioning Bush and calling for the resignation of Rumsfield. Has McGavick ever been in the military? The reserves? The national guard? I don't know but I sure doubt it. War is messy. Get the f*ck over it. Start putting out the good news of what IS happening in Iraq. That's my issue with Bush -- that he's not trumpeting the good news enough and is letting the lying media paint it as a disaster. Read Mudville Gazette, read the blog Iraq the Model, whatever you do, READ what our soldiers and what Iraqis are actually saying but whatever you do, don't take the media's and Democrats' spin as the only truth of the matter!!!!!
Posted by: ferrous on October 31, 2006 12:43 PMRick Santorum also has a decent ad out - it's actually entertaining and humorous, along the lines of taking the job seriously, not himself.
Posted by: SouthernRoots on October 31, 2006 01:12 PMMaria's trouble is that she is between a rock and a stubborn Nutrooter's skull.
Posted by: Jeff B. on October 31, 2006 01:26 PMThe problem I see is that even when there is a good candidate, the message isn't getting out to the people who need it most. Instead the time is spent preaching to the choir.
Mike needs to spend this last few days connecting with the people who can vote him into office, because right now they don't know where to turn and will probably spend next Tuesday at home.
Posted by: Ken on October 31, 2006 03:13 PMIn the age of the internet, there is absolutely no excuse for not knowing about a candidate. Anyone who is smart enough to fill out a ballot is smart enough to find information about a candidate from that candidate's website or from news sources. Libraries, of course, offer internet access free of charge.
People who stay home because they don't know about a candidate deserve the horrible senator they will (likely) get, at least if the polls are correct.
Posted by: Palouse on October 31, 2006 03:35 PMOK...I would vote for Mike - over Cantwell - anyway...but I didn't like his stance on our state's initiative process. He did clarify, however, that our initiative process was not something that he would be voting on in his capacity as Senator... and he was only voicing a personal opinion...(way back when he was first deciding to run for office)
Waching his commercial's - he has me rolling! I like the guy! He's a natural and a leader....
I don't care what some polls say - Cantwell looks scared and defeated everytime she's on the news. Her own staff pretty much buried her with charges that she is a b@tch to work for! And... I can't think of a single thing she's done for anyone in this state in all her years in office......Seriously!
McGavick had better come out swinging when he wins....I want to be impressed.
Posted by: Deborah on October 31, 2006 03:47 PMA lively debate going on in the Maryland U.S. Senate Race is keeping things great for democracy and voters!! Check it out. A plurality of 34% wins this race!
Posted by: Hedda on October 31, 2006 06:00 PMWe are all frustrated with Iraq. Thank You Mike for saving the best for last!
Posted by: deadwood on October 31, 2006 06:25 PM