October 19, 2006
Upset Special for the 2006 Campaign
Inevitably during any campaign season a race usually unfolds which surprises people, where regardless of macro-electoral trends a candidate pulls off an upset. For those looking for a good bet as to where such an upset special may occur, I give you Kim Halvorson's race to knock off state Rep. John McCoy in the 38th Legislative District (Everett).
Halvorson took a run at McCoy in 2004, and did respectably well in a blue-collar Democratic district, losing 54-46%. In theory, non-Presidential years offer better opportunities for Republicans to win down ballot races like this because of lower turnout, though this year is hardly a typical off-year election, thus complicating matters.
I've always thought Halvorson had the energy and contrast with McCoy to beat him, but I've remained skeptical of the year's underlying political dynamics. That being said, Halvorson has serious hope. Her campaign this cycle is more focused, visible, and on message. Moreover, some recent polling data puts the race literally in the toss-up category, for what that's worth.
Plus, to be blunt, McCoy isn't a very likable guy. That's been the word on the street for some time in Snohomish County. And his ongoing dual-relationship as a state legislator AND general manager of Quil Ceda Village continues to rankle some people (just like the traffic the Tulalips have contributed much to near the "Village").
Also worth noting, in a small victory that warms a candidate's heart, the pictures at the Times article linked above are not the only pictures used in the print version of the article. The paper put the two candidates on the cover of its Wednesday Snohomish County insert, with Halvorson's smiling face contrasting sharply with the dour, grumpy looking McCoy. Same story for the shots placed with the feature article, two of which are online.
Keep an eye on this race. It wouldn't be prudent to predict a Halvorson victory at this point, though if Vegas was putting a line on it, the contest would make for an interesting little side bet that might pay off big.
[Full disclosure: I served with Halvorson as co-Vice Chair of the Snohomish County Charter Review Commission this year].
Posted by Eric Earling at October 19, 2006
07:05 AM | Email This
McCoy running an election? Haven't heard or seen signs that he is motivated. Seems he has lost interest or relying on the machine to generate votes.
I wish I were in Halvorson's district. She is a real credit to the R party in Snohomish County. If only, if only. I wish there were more of her to help in recruitment.
My only issue with her is that she has stayed quiet the past two years. The only notable was being voted onto the Charter Review Commission which is a good thing because it is all about name recognition. So, her name is out there in a postive light.
Here's another one - I predict Mike! will get over 45% of the vote, maybe even 46%!!! That would be a huge showing for him.
A minor humorous correction? 38th Legislative District (Tulalips) instead of (Everett).
Great call Eric I have been hoping on this one as well. She has run a great race.
Col. Hogan, unless I miss the joke the 38th district includes most of Everett, more than half of Marysville, and Tulalip.
Kim is one hell of a candidate and she has a great support team, and I am voting for her. It has been unfortunate that I haven't been able to give her more of my volunteer time.
I think Kim will win, but by a very narrow margin.
Andrew, it was a humorous attempt to show that John McCoy, while is Indian, he is allowed to vote and hold office. The Tulalips, as a tribe and like others, consistently try to set themselves up as a separate nation and not subject to the rules you and I are subject too.
As a legislator, McCoy, right off the bat, introduced legislation to exempt the State from collecting sales tax revenues from the sales on the reservation (which included WalMart and Home Depot). They still feel that the money the businesses collect from sales tax should go into their coffers.
So, Mr. McCoy was shown to be a true partisan for the 'foreign' nation and did not represent the people in his district. His advantage, though, is that he is a Democrat in a Democratic District.
I admire the things the tribe has been able to accomplish and he was a leader in those regards. But, the legislation to benefit the tribe at the expense of the rest of us was too much for me.
Even if she loses, I hope she gives it a couple more tries.
swatter, my thoughts exactly--he may be a great guy, but is he really representing "US" as a whole? i think not. witness the defeat of the non-tribal slots issue.
my interest in this race is a defeat for a pro-Tribal person/interest to symbolically & actually start chipping away at their excessive hold on our state. same reasoning for example for a WEA defeat. start cutting the cables & influences.
McCoy is in serious trouble because Democrats aren't really fired up to get him re-elected. Unlike in 2004, he doesn't have other races on the ballot of get his base out.
McCoy's race is the only contested state legislative in the district. Rick Larsen is safe and Maria Cantwell isn't really firing up the base as well.
The conflict of interest that McCoy represents is convincing a lot of Democrats to not vote or better yet vote for Kim.
8. Also, if you are near Snohomish County and are willing to volunteer this is the race to get involved in. The grassroots efforts of people such as us will make an impact in this race. Here is the Halvorson campaign website: http://www.electkim.org
Is Larsen really that safe? He seems to want to attack Roulstone on stem cell research only. Maybe he has the money to waste since I haven't seen any Roulstone ads in the mail.
And Dino does a great radio commercial for Roulstone that no one listens to.
And yes, there seems to be a lethargy out there for McCoy. I see more Rs fired up than Ds and that is saying a lot in D territory.
Democrats should support Kim. Quite a few prominent Democrats have already endorsed her. Think about this:
McCoy votes for increases in the B&O tax - yet he'll never have to pay it.
McCoy votes for measures that would increase property taxes in Snoh Co (HB 1721) - yet he doesn't pay property taxes.
And, McCoy co-sponsored the WA death tax - even though the tribes are not subject to it.
Does this seem fair?
If McCoy had any integrity, he would at least abstain from these votes.
In my "blue-collar Democrat" precinct, we got 15 sign locations for her. She has enthusiastic support all around! Because of her and I-933, I have a reason to be motivated about this election!