October 12, 2006
New Poll Has Reichert +3%
A Constituent Dynamics "Majority Watch" poll released today has Reichert up 48% - 45% over Darcy Burner.
Good news: the same pollster, with a very similar sample, had Burner up 49% - 46% at the end August (see all major election polls for this race here).
Bad news: the polling methodology is atypical and as such not entirely reliable. The IRV technology (robo-calls) in question is well-known in the polling world, used by Rasmussen Reports and Survey USA. But the specific sampling techniques used by Constituent Dynamics are up for debate (interested poll geeks can read a specific discussion on the matter here).
Worth noting for analysis, the poll was taken as Reichert's first ad was coming out, which thus hadn't yet seen significant airtime. It was also taken prior to the recent debate, though campaign ads from both sides are likely to have more impact on the race than the debate based on all reports.
Short story: Nice news, but nothing to celebrate.
UPDATE: Link to previous Constituent Dynamics poll fixed.
Posted by Eric Earling at October 12, 2006
06:12 PM | Email This
1. The WHOLE Truth alert: Darcy's website complains about push-polling against her, but FAILS TO MENTION THAT THE DEMOCRATS HAVE BEEN RUNNING numerous "Hitcalls" against Reichert to 8th District voters EVER SINCE he got elected. (I should know; I've received every one of them) Just thought you all would like to know what Burner "forgot" to tell you.
2. Reichert has the gravitas and technical knowledge to be where he is. Darcy Dip S___ hasn't managed anything of the scope of the Seattle Police department, or the Green River Killer Hunt in her career, and her continual Bush Bashing and Tax happy nature are not going to get her elected, even in Ron Sims Election house.
3. Bad News- Any respecatble incumbent should be 10 points ahead by now. Respect. That's a big thing for incumbents to have. Apparently Reichert doesn't have it. I suppose Reichert's spouting his independent ideology, yet falling in line with Bush shows us that, for some, it's much easier to fight for principles than it is to live up to them.
4. i never care about any polls. i've swam against the current in many things of life.
but out of academic curiosity: is there any TRULY accurate or non-biased poll out there? i'm thinking like a medical double-blind test where things are very controlled and fairly reliable.
my street smarts says that any pollster who's THAT accurate is in Vegas making millions on bets, not working for some political lackey.
5. I love how she wants all the camera's out of her campaign, yet wasn't it a democratic activist that was chasing McGavick all over this state with his video camera, every time he spoke, everything he did and said?
Hipocrits
Wasn't it a democrat in washington DC that had sex with a page and got 3 standing ovations from the democrats on the hill
Hipocrits
And you want to lecture us on respect..Ha
6. CNN and Nationally renowned politicians comming in and showing support, plus daily press conferences...THIS equals " Burner wants cameras out of her race"? Wow, then I REALLY want to see a race that qualifies as "Wanting Cameras in the campaign". Hypocrisy (notice the REAL spelling of the word please) is when the Republicans denounce homosexuality then go and have sex with their underage pages (they pick up the habit i assume when they visit asian countries on lobbyist/ taxpayer dollars).
The GOP has embarrassed us all.
7. The GOP embarrass You!
The Democrats embarrass Us!
8. Jimmie@4, that depends on your definition of "unbiased". Every poll accurately reflects the opinions of the people polled, at the time they were polled, on the issues they were asked, as they chose to answer. Each clause in the previous sentence contains great room for error. You can't be sure who will actually vote, people change their minds, people's answers are affected by how questions are phrased, and people lie.
Most pollsters do their best to minimize these errors (except for changes over time, which polls are intended to measure). But that's difficult, expensive, and elusive. Technically you could call the errors "bias" but in general it's unintentional. A few polls deliberately skew their methodologies to produce a desired result, but I think most clients prefer meaningful data.
9. Addendum to #8: There is also the problem of statistical sampling error -- even if you avoid all the other errors, you may just happen to poll a nonrepresentative sample of the population. That's what the "margin of error" accounts for. But in the real world the other issues I mentioned cause more problems.
10. Glad you can spell hypocrisy, Michael. Now, look up "coming".
11. The graveyard whistling progresses to increasingly shrill volumes.
Come 11/08 I expect some very intense analysis of exurban sewer board and school district races at this site.
Anyone with enough determination can find a few tea leaves in which to wallow. Hope y'all find some consolation there.
12. I think the bad news is that Burner is even close. How can this be? Reichert is an incumbent with all the benefits that bestows, in what was formerly a safe R seat. He is challenged by a political neophyte who has never even been elected to her homeowner's association. And she's running dead even.
Spin it any way you like, but the fact that someone with the name recognition of Dave Reichert is struggling in a race against a heretofore unknown is not a good sign for the "Republican Revolution".
13. The Democrats are a sick, sick party as a whole - with a collective mental disorder. There are a few normal ones around like Adam Smith and Norm Dicks, but by and large this party gets joy in undermining our country in the eyes of other countries. MichaelUW is a hyper partisan leftist who is in denial about the hypocrisy of the Dems that reigns supreme - all that needs to be done is see what the MSM is not saying about what their role in timing the release of this headline in early October. Burner - the bimbette has no credibility - she has to resort to lieing about Reichert's record/ her character is in the toilet...
The Republicans are ineffectual - they are rudderless/mediocre leadership. The President has way lost his mojo and lost his way as a leader - Sad but true...he will be a detriment in these midterm elections, so the best thing that Repub. candidates can do is stay away.
Hopefully, some politicians of good character will enter the scene before the election of 2008 - that's not too much to ask for or is it ?
14. Sorry I did not finish my thought; MichaelUW is a hyper partisan leftist who is in denial about the hypocrisy of the Dems that reigns supreme - all that needs to be done is see what the MSM is not saying about what their role in timing the release of the headline about Mark Foley in early October. (They exposed him as gay, which had not been done until then - the real sinister part, then proceeded to out him). Turns out he was a pervert and good riddens, but the way the Dem operatives did it was despicable - are you happy now - Democrats ?
15. Eric, your careful analysis of the trees is appreciated, but please try looking at the forest. Reichert is far from perfect. But that a nitwit like Burner should break even 35% against him is not the problem; it is the symptom of a much larger problem. A rational society devoted to the ideal of a democratic republic would not take someone like Darcy Burner seriously. I am reminded of the various, nitwitted Secretaries of This and That in Atlas Shrugged after the neo-brownshirts took over. If Reichert wins, we can be somewhat reassured that that dread reality has not yet come to pass, and perhaps never will. If he loses, it is not so much an individual tragedy as a sign that Western Civilization itself is slipping under the waves as a result of a once-great society losing its attachment to the principles which made it so.
16. TB, if you honestly believe that Dave Reichert is such an archetype of principled leadership in contemporary society that his loss would herald the decline of Western Civilization, then I would have to agree with you that we have gone badly off the rails. Horribly, tragically, pathetically, off the rails.
17. I never thought I'd ever agree to the ignorance you guys spout on here, but one thing I'll agree on- Releasing information on Foley and outting him was obviously (in some part at least) less about the page (whom i consider to be a victim) and more about politics. I hope you can join me in this compromise by agreeing that NEITHER side of the aisle in Congress has the right to lecture ANYONE on ethics OR morals. And a history of service (Reichert's cliche of his 32, 33, 35 years-which one was it after all reichert, make up you rmind?) needs to be GOOD service. Relseasing the Green River Killer? Running an ineffective and sloppy sherrif office? Blowing George Bush whenever asked? If you call that service...well... that's just pretty sad. And with Burner... Inexperienced? HARDLY. Burner will bring in her managerial skillls and analytical skills to solve problems that REAL people face, instead of taking it up the ass for the President. And, as a father myself, I know you have to be compassionate and kind to raise a child. She's battling from both ends of the spectrum, and essentially she is winning. Not to mention, Congress is supposed to REPRESENT us, not make decisions FOR us. Who better to do that than a normal person (granted, an abnormally large brain) ?In regards to polls- again, you could paint a pumpkin with a red "R" in this district and it'd get 47% of the vote. Reichert hasn't proven to be much more than that to be honest. The fact is, with his name rec at 100%...and Darcy's somewhere around 80%...and the fact that they are neck and neck. Well, it's bad for Reichert--> The only way for him to go up in the polls would be for someone who dislikes reichert but doesnt know burner to learn about burner and dislike her enough to support reichert anyway. come on now, let's be practical. Republicans, it's time to start looking for Darcy's challenger in 08'
18. guest -- Please go back and read what I actually wrote. Thank you in advance for your attention to detail.
19. When you give weight to and elect light weight bimbos, you get representatives like Patty Murray, our tennis-shoed, soccer mom, ranked dumbest senator in the U.S., who believed Osama built daycare centers for the Afghan women who weren't allowed to work or even leave their homes without a male family member escort!!!
There was nothing to recommend Murray, and there is nothing to recommend Burner, and if the electorate supports them, it DOES portray a decline.
20. I don't believe anybody who aspires to public office represents the Michael's of the world, they are simply a drain on the system. Grow up kid, at this point your are merely an oxygen thief.
21. X at X dot com - If I believed that you had one ounce of sincerity in you I still wouldn't agree with your conclusion. Skew it, stretch it, spin it how you will, I see that you still have yet to provide anything positive about anything...
22. And, as a father myself, I know you have to be compassionate and kind to raise a child.
Except if she wins [snicker] she WON'T be raising the gratefully unaborted but now inconvenient Henry, will she?
23. TB, I have reread what you wrote. I understand your critique. The reason I stand by my words is that there is a disconnect between the single modifying phrase you refer to and the rest of your argument that is so stark, I can only presume it is intentionally misleading (in the service of partisanship), or a self-congratulatory exercise in hyperbole. You can't expect it to be treated seriously.
24. Cheryl. You're obviously a trailer trash whore. A woman can raise a child and be a member of Congress. If you take a look, MOST Congressional members have children. This is 2006 my incompetent friend- Men can raise children too. And, on a really serious note- how petty can you get to call a three year old inconvenient? She will be going to Congress in Janurary in order to make this a better place for her child, not because he's inconvenient.
25. How is raising my already-high taxes going to make my family's life better??
26. The liberals are really beating their chests this election season, thinking they have the best chance ever of retaking power. I think their heads might implode if they lose again.
27. MichlelUW
"how petty can you get to call a three year old inconvenient?"
how petty are YOU to call someone a "trailer trash whore"?
lighten up. you have no concept of fencing. try a flexible verbal foil, not a cleaver. and--good fencers control their emotions. touche.
28. Yet another example of why education is wasted on morons like MichaelUW. Professional student, amateur human being. Your childish name calling reminds us all that vulgarity is a weak man's imitation of strength. You may go to class, but you don't have any. Kind of like Darcy.
29. again, no one actually addresses the REAL points. Just hypocrisy.
that's why I'm not a republican anymore
30. Again, who cares what you think? If Darcy does, go tell her. You are a poster child for her support network.
31. michaelUW - you are a syphilitic, inbred imbecile. The best you can aspire to in your miserable pathetic life is to wipe iban's tremendous wrinkled butt. Your command of the English language and your sense of proportion are stunted to the point of irrelevance.
for all you've contributed thus far, it is apparent that you comb your hair with a meat cleaver. There's no point is advising you to get a life because it is plain that you wouldn't have a clue what to do with it...
32. michealUW, never mind alphie ... he is just a profanity laced bot and next to Eric the most intelligent guy on the board. He is a shining example of the future of the Republican Party.
The soundpolitics guys never tell alphie to get on topic, because they are all political party hacks trying to make sure that the proper number of votes are counted in King County ... oooohhhh look we found 3 voters they missed.
Anyways, on topic ... Dave "pull her feeding tube" Reichert is imploding along with the rest of the Republicans. Bye Bye Mr. Reichert, God's people are going to rescue the party this year.
33. Liberal~john - you're giving legitimate nutjobs like michealUW a bad name.....
34. John at 32
John, go over to HA, they are your true liberal friends, and they also hate Christians. So just who is going to be part of Gods' people to rescue the "party" this year.
Your words.....Not mine.
35. John
Here is a snippet of what you call "god's party". I apologize to those that this may offend, but truly this is what we are up against.(the "F" word has been edited)
From Horsesass.org
Quote begins
http://www.crooksandliars.com/2006/10/12/tempting-faith-christian-cons ervatives-duped-by-bushco-part-ii/
I can't think of a group who deserves more of an ass f*cking than the Christians. You f*cking morons got what you deserved. I am sure the Devil is waiting with open arms and horns to welcome you cowards where you belong.
This is TOO f*cking funny. I am buying copies of this book and sending them to every church on the east side of the state with a yellow post it note attached saying...
Got ya suckers.....
Commentby RightEqualsStupid-- 10/13/06@ 7:32 am
End quote
So John, are these the people that are gonna rescue the "party"?
36. MichaelUW,
As a UW law student and founding member ofWhite Trash Make it to Law School Student Organization at the law school, I am deeply offended by your maligning my people. If I can figure out who you are, I will request that you are publicly censured for you insensitivity.
Seriously, though, how come it is okay for you to make an ugly generalization of white people from a lower socioeconomic group? I think that's why I find the far left so insidious. Look, I am a moderate and in many ways I agree with the left, but I have far more respect for the people on the right when they call me names. They only resort to "Hippie." The left claims to care about the poor, yet they lump all that grew up in trailer parks as trash.
37. Reichert is a Bush stooge that deserves to be fired! He and the rest of the Republicans are running this country into the ground. His imcompetence as a detective involved with the Green River murder investigation should have prevented him from being elected. I still cannot believe Ridgeway killed so many women without being caught for so many years. Some better detective work may have saved a lot of lives.
38. Reichert is a Bush stooge that deserves to be fired! He and the rest of the Republicans are running this country into the ground. His imcompetence as a detective involved with the Green River murder investigation should have prevented him from being elected. I still cannot believe Ridgeway killed so many women without being caught for so many years. Some better detective work may have saved a lot of lives.
39. I can believe that you can't believe it.
Why, you ask?
Because you are a moron.
Thanks for writing.
40. Reichert supporter, please watch...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U28Bz0mn0UA&mode=related&search=