September 20, 2006
Early Election Thoughts, Part II: The Netroots Bubble Begins to Burst

Faithful readers of Sound Politics are well aware of the skepticism with which this site's contributors have greeted the rise of the netroots. Yes, they are good at raising money for candidates from outside their district, but that doesn't mean they're grounded in political reality.

Liberal bloggers have in recent months shown growing excitement for Democratic Congressional candidates in Eastern Washington. This author pointed out such enthusiasm for Peter Goldmark might be more anti-Bush dreaming than cogent political analysis. Post-primary seems like a good time to check-in on that notion, even as results continue to be tabulated.

Leading up to primary, such bloggers not only continued their drumbeat for Peter Goldmark, their euphoria prompted some puzzling preening about the potential pitfalls facing Rep. Doc Hastings, said preening found here and here.

So what were those primary results?

Despite a massive statewide advantage in Democratic v. Republican ballots, Cathy McMorris and Doc Hastings steamrolled to strong showings. As of this typing, Hastings is capturing about 55% of the overall vote, and Republicans are totaling nearly 72% of votes cast in his district. Meanwhile, McMorris is cruising, with approximately 58% of the vote.

Even the eager netroots are now tempered about Goldmark (though hardly a word can be found in the liberal blogosphere about Hastings' strong primary showing). The NW Progressive Institute blog gamely tries to fill its readers with lots of theories as to why the race is still competitive. Evergreen Politics is mercifully more restrained, noting:

These numbers are not insurmountable for Goldmark. With his charisma and on-going voter interaction, he may still be able to reach those many voters who tend not to vote in the primaries.

Yet, as I've noted, Democrats seem to have their best comparative advantage over Republicans in the primaries, whereas parity with Republicans in general elections is more notable. Moreover, don't neglect the fact Cathy McMorris was popular enough win every county in her district in 2004, while running up a higher percentage of the vote than President Bush in 10 of the district's 12 counties, and higher than Dino Rossi in 11 of those 12 as well.

The netroots might be merely wrong about Goldmark, but the brief fantasy of trouble for Hastings should go down as one of the more ludicrous assertions of this campaign season. One would think most people of both sides of the aisle would know better than to buy into push polls, like those the anti-Hastings bloggers were fawning over, and which I've had the chance to read. Hint to readers of all political beliefs: whenever a pollster talks about "enough resources to reach persuadable voters," and then how their candidate improves in the polling once "comparatives" are used between the candidates you should be skeptical. The point of such polls is to prove to donors (or intemperate bloggers) that the race is worthy of attention, not to get an accurate read of the race. Such polls often include asking questions like: Candidate A wants to give your grandmother free prescriptions and your child a free college education, Candidate B wants to starve her out of her home and send your child to war, all to to make executives from pharmaceutical and big-oil companies rich. Do you prefer Candidate A or Candidate B?

But please, don't let facts get in the way of the netroots. Now we've got Horse's Ass braying about some great victory for Darcy Burner. Oh dear.

I guess I shouldn't be too critical though, these guys do give me great material.

UPDATE: 3rd to last paragraph edited.

Posted by Eric Earling at September 20, 2006 10:36 PM | Email This
Comments
1. In his speech today, Hugo Chavez gave us great ammunition to use against Can't-do-well. Chavez held up a copy of "Hegemony or Survival: America's Quest for Global Dominance," by Noam Chomsky. That's the same Noam Chomsky promoted by Dal LaManga's Progressive Government organization as a potential Secretary of Peace [sic], Defense, and State. That's the same Dal LaManga that's on Maria's campaign staff.

It's not that difficult to see that Maria supports Hugo Chavez and his anti-American rants.

Posted by: Obi-Wan on September 20, 2006 10:57 PM
2. Hastings and McMorris were never in trouble. There was really just a lot of wishful thinking going on in the leftist crowd. That's all. They wished so hard that they actually started to believe their own propaganda.

Posted by: Michele on September 20, 2006 11:32 PM
3. Obi-Wan,

You understand that. I understand that. Most SP readers understand that. But when I look at a poll from a couple of weeks ago that shows 40% (+/-) supporting Susan Owens (i.e. they've correctly identified the incumbent, and figure that's the "respectable" choice, 20% saying they have no clue, and the other 40% split evenly between the remaining four candidates (i.e. they have no clue, but would rather take a random guess than admit that), I don't conclude that most WA voters are looking into it quite deeply enough to connect all those dots.

These are not the droids you are looking for. Move along... move along.

Posted by: TB on September 21, 2006 01:15 AM
4. Goldmark doesn't have a chance. in 2004, McMorris did reasonably well even in the precincts of the 3rd LD (the most Democratic LD in the 5th CD). While no GOP legislative candidate in the 3rd got more than 42.2%, McMorris managed 47.7% after a three-way GOP primary against a single Democratic candidate for an open seat. Of course, she crushed Barbieri everywhere else.

I see no reason Goldmark should do much better than Barbieri.

Posted by: ScottM on September 21, 2006 05:46 AM
5. "Netroots bubble begins to burst"? I respectfully disagree.

The "netroots" (I hate that term) started with John McCain's online fund raising. I think it was the 2000 campaign. I was volunteering at a tree hugger group at the time. Fund raising for non-profits has usually been a struggle. When McCain's "outside" bid did startingly well, everyone sat up and took notice.

I regard most all blogs, conservative, liberal, or otherwise, as part of the "netroots". Whether it's fund raising, research, investigation, reporting, rallying the troops, or whatever, it's all good.

What's happening is the group of people participating in politics is growing. These people are challenging the party heirarchies. As well as the "mainstream media". This trend is counter to the growing apathy in politics nationwide.

Maybe the liberal netroots haven't scored any electoral victories. (Doesn't Jon Tester's primary in Montana count?) But they've definitely stirred things up.

Look at how much progress has been made since 2004. Back then, the Democratic Party leadership regarded the online community as an ATM.

These days, not so much. Participants on ActBlue and elsewhere make their own choices on who to support.

I've given more money to campaigns this last year than I've ever given before. The bigger difference is I'm given it to long-shot and underdog races. Races I wouldn't have known about before the online activism and resources.

Because I want my money to make difference. I'm not content to continue filling to coffers of the party leadership and comfy incumbents.

So, yea, I'm very bullish on the "netroots". It's working great for me. I expect continued improvement.

It just occurred to me that "netroots" fund raising is the online version of "Emily's List" (early money is like yeast). The early support for progressives who share my values and priorities will hopefully give them a shot at going to the next level. I think it's a great investment.

Posted by: zappini on September 21, 2006 07:59 AM
6. Obi-Wan...are you aware your logic regarding Cantwell is A)completly flawed and B) Baseless? That would be like saying that one of Bush's advisors read/endorsed a book that was then held up by the President of Iran, it dosen't make his advisor a terrorist, it means he likes a book.

Also, if you want a reason Goldmark can win against McMorris (other than the fact that, with 3 colleges in her district, she cut $12.7 in student aid), its that he isnt a typical liberal like Barbieri, he's an Eastern Washington liberal. And it turns out, he has one hell of a lot of integretity and honesty, wheras I'm pretty sure McMorris would sell out her district if it meant her getting re-elected.

Posted by: Jason on September 22, 2006 07:08 PM
7. These poll numbers are significantly better for Democrat Richard Wright in the 4th because after you get done asking whether people mind sending their kids off to Iraq, you get a 60% reply,"Yes! we do."
This goes with a 70% number who are fed up with this
Do-Nothing Republican Congress and a rubber-stamp
congressman who has done what he was told to do on the House Ethics Committee. It's not hard to throw
in a few choice votes and actions by Hastings from the last twelve years to bring his numbers down to
where the Wright campaign people think they have a
real shot at Doc with the independent voters.

Posted by: Clark Denslow on September 22, 2006 11:10 PM
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