Sound Politics: Early Election Thoughts, Part I

September 20, 2006

Early Election Thoughts, Part I

Based on preliminary results, turnout appears to have unfolded as predicted: heavy on Democratic ballots. Statewide returns as of this typing show 49.4% of voters selected Democratic ballots, 37.6% favored Republicans, and 13% failed or refused to pick. As I originally discussed, observers would be wise not to read much into that separation either way.

A quick look at the key races I identified as anecdotal examples in my original post above held the same trend this year:

Snohomish County favored Democratic ballots 52.9% to 31.5% percent, with 15.6% refusing or failing.

In the 8th Congressional District, Burner narrowly leads Reichert, 19,529 to 19,133. That lead will probably widen as King County figures out how to count ballots.

In the 38th Legislative District, strength in Democratic ballots has John McCoy with 5,190 votes to Kim Halvorson's 2,603.

In all three of these examples, there were similar partisan spreads in the 2004 primary. Then very different results in the general, which were a truer reflection of the electorate. Keep that in mind in particular if any Democratic spokespeople or liberal blogs start crowing too much about primary vote totals compared to the Republicans they seek to demean.

Posted by Eric Earling at September 20, 2006 06:38 AM | Email This

Comments

1. I was correct that the percentage of Republican voters would increase, that Sheldon wins, and that Darcy Burner will lead. But I was off on the Supreme Court. It still appears that Stephen Johnson will have time, to make up the Owens lead. Let's hope so.

Snohomish County 52.9% to 31.5%....that is unthinkable how this number comes to be.

Posted by: Andrew R. on September 20, 2006 07:10 AM

2. It should also be pointed out that Kim Halvorson did much better among Republicans than John McCoy did among Democrats.

Amd while we're on it, Cantwell did much better among Democrats than McGavick among Republicans.

Posted by: Michelle on September 20, 2006 07:32 AM

3. According to the Pierce County Elections page only 23% of Pierce County's registered voters even bothered to vote.

That means about 11-12% of the registered voters are making the decisions for 100% of the population of Pierce County.

Republicans are not doing enough to get out the vote. (And obviously, Dems could do way better too, but they don't have to....they are ahead.)

Posted by: Easycure on September 20, 2006 07:38 AM

4. I think judicial races should have a runoff between the top two vote-getters in November, even if there are only two candidates. it would insure more participation in these important elections.

Posted by: Don on September 20, 2006 07:51 AM

5. The R party in Snohomish County is dead, Andrew R.

There has been no good leadership for a long, long time, if ever. I suppose it is the vestiges of the union town of Everett belief.

I know several attractive candidates that would be Rs in another county that go D just because there is only one party.

Posted by: swatter on September 20, 2006 08:07 AM

6. I had mixed feelings when after the first count was over, Richard Pope was behind. I was sad he was behind, but relieved that he would still be available to post and research on Sound Politics.

Waking up this morning, he was ahead. It is always good to see a bogger friend succeed.

Posted by: swatter on September 20, 2006 08:11 AM

7. This is as I predicted.

Sadly, conservatives are either outnumbered by vigor or number.

Posted by: SVC Alumnus Blogger on September 20, 2006 08:31 AM

8. I think Richard still has to run against Ottinger in the general election because he didn't get 50%.

Posted by: wayne on September 20, 2006 08:54 AM

9. Don: In county-level judicial races (at least in some counties), two-candidate races aren't even on the primary ballot.

However, in a multiple-candidate race, a candidate who gets a majority goes to the November ballot alone, which is inconsistent in principle with the above.

Posted by: ScottM on September 20, 2006 08:57 AM

10. Based on what I'm seeing right now for the 8th cong. district, Burner is going to get creamed in the general.

Posted by: Michele on September 20, 2006 10:07 AM

11. I'm nominally a Republican (Goldwater school-there's a heck of a lot I don't like about the current crew in DC), but I voted a Dem ballot.

Why? Because down here in Thurston Country, there was only one GOP race with more than one candidate, and McGavick was going to win that anyway. Heck, they didn't even bother with a GOP candidate for one of the State House seats in my district. As far as I can tell, the only race the county GOP is really interested in is Thronson for Sherriff. At least, that's the only one I've gotten emails about.

For what it's worth, I voted for Hong Tran, because she's at least more honest than Maria Cantwell.

Posted by: Heartless Libertarian on September 20, 2006 10:09 AM

12. I voted the Dem ballot, too, Heartless. Voted for Hong Tran, as well. She probably got more republican votes than democrat!

Posted by: Michele on September 20, 2006 10:21 AM

13. I'm not a Rentonite, but i notice that the Fairwood vote is currently separated by ONE vote.

Posted by: Misty on September 20, 2006 10:51 AM

14. The reason the Democrat "turnout" was high was that there was a lot of Republicans voting the Democrat ballot to throw them off. Their were really no contested Republican primaries in Kitsap County so voting in the Democrat one was easy.

Let Democrats think they have it all sewn up. They will get arrogant and sloppy.

Posted by: pbj on September 20, 2006 11:00 AM

15. Hmm...

Isn't it odd that Cantwell has more votes in King County than they are reporting Democratic ballots?

I'm hoping they haven't just updated their totals, but what the heck?

Posted by: Alcon on September 20, 2006 12:23 PM

16. Alcon,

Per the Sec of State web site, Cantwell alone doesn't have more votes than D ballots. But the total for all D senate candidates is more than total D ballots in King County and also the total for all R senate candidates is more than total R ballots in King County. Something weird there. Have to see after they report again this afternoon.

Posted by: Scott on September 20, 2006 02:33 PM

17. Eric, my thinking is that we have now seen two closed primary elections in even-numbered years that have proven to be heavy D turnout. My hypothesis is that our Republican base is less keen on this new pick-a-party primary than the D base. I honestly think the open primary suited Republicans better than the closed primary, in retrospect.

Nevertheless, I think the primary does show us one thing: the Democrat base is more motivated this election than the Republican base.

Posted by: Chad Minnick on September 20, 2006 03:01 PM

18. I agree with eric that it is difficult to read too much into these primary results. But why did both McGavick and Cantwell bother to spend millions on TV right before the primary.

I think it means more to both campaigns than most of us know. To me, Cantwell appears strong in all the likely places and a few more rural counties where one would have thought more republicans would have been voting.

I think she's probably overcome the press on the anti-war wing of the democratic party. What we don't know is whether McGavick, who is trying to run as a maverick, is capable of overcoming the problems with that within his own party.

I'd watch him as he tries to present a more moderate-Mike over the next 40 days or so.

His civility plea is odd. He seems to be running against Cantwell's most partisan supporters, as opposed to Cantwell. Not sure that will fly. And in the process he loses the ability to run a hard fought campaign.

Posted by: thor on September 20, 2006 07:54 PM

19. The reason why we advertise in the Primary, even though it's virtually meaningless is because it is the first time voters are actually paying attention to the election. And when voters turn their ears to the campaigns and say, "We're listening" the campaigns better be saying something.

It's just the first opportunity to define yourself, and define your opponent.

Posted by: Chad Minnick on September 21, 2006 12:53 PM

20. In Snohomish Co., margin between D's and R's voter turn-out is closing.

http://www.co.snohomish.wa.us/auditor/Elections/ecurrent.htm Still counting.

Posted by: Michelle on September 22, 2006 09:20 PM