Some economists have long argued certain measures of inflation are a "lagging indicator," meaning underlying trends don't actually reveal themselves until after indicators of conventional wisdom otherwise would suggest. With all due respect to members of the press corps reading Sound Politics, I've found the media as an aggregate institution to be a lagging indicator of breaking political trends. Sure, some individual journalists rise above the tide of conventional wisdom, but the general trend seems to hold. Accordingly, though much recent, prominent reporting says otherwise, let me say it's time to pay attention to rising Republican strength between now and Election Day.

Some readers will be skeptical of such a notion, and perhaps it won't play out in Washington State in full, but it is worth paying attention to, especially given the potential microwave v. microwave analysis provided by respected analyst Larry Sabato that notes the need for a "macrowave" for Democrats to retake the House, capturing seats like Washington's 8th District where Dave Reichert and Darcy Burner are squaring off.

Close observers of election politics will know that non-presidential elections tend to be dominated by partisan rather than independent voters. Accordingly, what will be driving Republican voters this election season (since we know many liberals will be voting based on anti-Bush fervor)? President Bush hopes "Republicans understand the stakes." And what will those stakes be? Clearly the President's focus in the last 10 days or so indicates terrorism, and Congressional approval of the tools necessary to combat terrorism, will be focal points. Why is that important? I've seen hard copy of polling by Dutko Worldwide for the GOP which shows terrorism/homeland security is the single highest priority for likely Republican voters, and the single most unifying issue for the Republican base.

What else might be motivating likely voters this election season? I've already postulated gas prices are an indicator to watch. Now, current trends of falling gas prices are warming GOP hearts.

Political junkies may also recall another fascinating trend in 2002 and 2004. In both years, conventional wisdom heading into Election Day was that Republicans were in trouble - in 2002 because of among other things, traditional midterm malaise for the President's party, in 2004 because of relatively weak Presidential job approval numbers. Yet, in both years, the now vaunted post-2000 GOTV machine created by Karl Rove, Ken Mehlman, & Co., defied predictions. In 2002, Republicans captured virtually every close Senate race, and in 2004, well, you know. In both cases, improved Republican GOTV also rendered exit polls essentially worthless, as actual vote totals showed greater GOP strength than exit polls suggested.

So what's cooking this year on the GOTV front? Republicans plan to spend their fundraising advantage over Democrats in spades. Meanwhile, national Democrats in charge of GOTV only recently made peace after public GOTV strategy spats, though remain grumpy with George Soros/ACT and MoveOn.org for their comparative lack of enthusiasm this year. All this while Democratic Senate GOTV logistics remain unresolved, and House GOTV are themselves coming together at a very late date in the election season.

Remember too, Washington has not been a top-tier state for Republican GOTV efforts since 2000, not even in 2004. This will be the first election season where Washington is likely to be such a focal point, and benefit from GOTV improvements since it last had such national GOP attention.

Overall, I've been getting the sense for some time that such a possible resurgence was in the works, for many of the reasons noted above. Though a recent post by Larry Kudlow at the National Review's The Corner helped accelerate my thoughts, noting a number of interesting indicators showing recent movement toward the GOP. He's since followed up with a related post worth reading as well.

So what, you say? Where's the actual resurgence? Well, ABC's The Note yesterday cited Lincoln Chaffee's primary victory in Rhode Island (as regrettable as it might be) as proof "that the RNC's 72-hour program is alive and well." The Note also cited an ABC poll showing "[t]errorism has inched up in importance in the 2006 midterm elections and Republicans have regained an edge in trust to handle it."

Political veterans know campaign success is often the culmination of many factors coalescing together. Between the prominence of terrorism related issues, Republican GOTV advantages, and sustained falling gas prices, don't be surprised to see greater GOP strength this fall than conventional wisdom and the media - let alone diehard, anti-Bush liberals - might expect. If such strength appears, Reichert and perhaps McGavick will be direct beneficiaries.

UPDATE: Two interesting articles today provide more to consider on this theme. One from the Hill newspaper in Washington, DC titled "Defying pundits, GOP claims field of competitive races is narrowing." Another from the Washington Post delves into some of the turnout dynamics I discussed above.