The major national polling firm Rasmussen Reports surveyed 500 likely Washington voters Sept. 6, after Republican challenger Mike McGavick's mishandled DUI confession hit the news cycle. The results (m.o.e. +/- 4.5%) have Democratic incumbent Maria Cantwell opening up a wider lead than even last February, of 17 percent now. Rasmussen notes that many voters were aware of why McGavick had recently been in the news, yet most polled were generally fairly forgiving about such incidents. Forgiving, but still concerned about transparency in this specific instance - rightly or wrongly - is my take. Cantwell's recent ethical dust-up over an unpaid loan still owed to her by former campaign manager, longtime associate and lobbyist Ron Dotzauer may not amount to much in the end. It would probably mean more if she owed him a loan. Subsequent polls may bring the gap between the candidates down a few points. Nonetheless, McGavick must somehow connect brilliantly with suburban swing voters to pull this one out. Terrorism (yes); transportation; a dual-pronged energy plan (oil and alternatives); earmarks/pork/federal budget bloat. Sure, he's been talking about this stuff already, and has some excellent ideas. The challenge - as always - is to actually get the right voters to listen. GOTV alone won't cut it in this race for the Rs. Mike's guys know that, they just have to dial it up to "12" now.
Posted by Matt Rosenberg at September 12, 2006 08:27 AM | Email This
The funny thing with a poll like this is that it is so skewered, that nobody on either side gives it much credence.
It was smart, very smart, down right brilliant of McGavick to take his lumps now so that he can rebound before November.
+++
Also, if you click on 'the Results' link you can scroll down and find out that President Bush today has the highest approval ratings in a long time.
Fascinating.
Posted by: Brent in Ferndale on September 12, 2006 09:09 AMI'm sure Rasmussen is just making this stuff up to pull your chain.
Posted by: Unkl Witz on September 12, 2006 09:09 AMHe would probably be wasting his time anywhere in 206...
I think that election crunch time and the political silly season no longer starts with Labor Day. Now, and in the foreseeable future, it starts September 12th.
Today is Sept 12, Mike... GET BUSY.
Posted by: Cheryl on September 12, 2006 09:12 AMthat's like adding more fuel to the fire, isn't it?
wouldn't it be better to create a divided government so that some negotiation and oversight actually occur instead of say a bunch of rubber stamping?
Posted by: dineshj on September 12, 2006 09:31 AMthat's like adding more fuel to the fire, isn't it?
wouldn't it be better to create a divided government so that some negotiation and oversight actually occur instead of say a bunch of rubber stamping?
Posted by: dinesh on September 12, 2006 09:40 AM
If it were at all possible to have a more effective government, perhaps.
Unfortunately, this bunch on the other side of the divide don't want to negotiate, they want surrender.
This bunch on the other side of the divide don't want to debate problems, they want their way.
This bunch on the other side of the divide don't want to work with this president, they want to hang him.
This bunch on the other side of the divide don't want what's best for the country, they want what's best for their party.
This bunch on the other side of the divide don't want unity, they want power.
Dinish - do you call the Ds leaders stopping all their members even talking about social security - effectively silencing them and their first amendment rights rubber stamping? Or is it only Rs that rubber stamp?
Posted by: Fred on September 12, 2006 09:46 AMSeattle is quickly becoming a volunteer leper colony for the extreme left.
McGavick needs to get past the Seattle "beat his head against the wall" style argument and appeal to the issues that matter to the average Joe. Wasting time on the freeway due to Democrat HOV lanes, paying high B&O taxes, watching tax dollars go down the toilet on Sound Transit. Failing to drill in ANWR and start more local sources of oil. Continuing to take the fight to violent Islam, etc.
Sitting their like a deer in the headlights over the whole DUI thing instead of taking charge is not the way to win.
Posted by: Jeff B. on September 12, 2006 09:50 AM500 responses is a pretty good sample size for a state like Washington. I'm confident they made an adequate number of calls outside those reliably blue area codes.
Posted by: Unkl Witz on September 12, 2006 10:38 AMthe issue seems to be that a 1 party monopoly over congress and the executive seems to produce excessive federal spending and lame oversight (regardless of party--republicans have demonstrated that over the past 5+ years; dems for the decades prior to that when they had both congress and the executive).
divided govt. seems to be the answer, cheryl's hyperbole and paranoia notwithstanding.
Posted by: dinesh on September 12, 2006 11:43 AMGosh, looks like about 4 million other people do not live in Seattle or King County. Looks like around 30% of the voters can be found in King County. So it would appear that most of the voters in Washington state are all around you. You're surrounded!
Washington is a blue state regardless of what numbers you dial.
Rasmussen's pollsters are not idiots. They've been doing this kind of thing for a long time and they know the requirements of random polling if you want a measure of accuracy. So their results are fairly credible even if you and Mike don't like them.
But if it would make you happy, you can do all your polling in Chelan County.
Right now, McGavick has nothing to lose in my opinion. He might as well let it fly. Look at the ads going after Gerry Alexander hopefully propelling John Groen into a Supreme Court seat.
Now that is how to fight!!
Fight hard.
I'm tired of this pansy-a$$, civility bullsh*t!
Stand up and fight for what you believe in.
Stand up and duke it out with your incumbent opponent for God's sake!
No cajones.
Rasmussen (which is, by the way, owned by a Republican) is a good firm. Not the best, granted, but good. Their polls agree with everyone who has recently released a poll. If I had to bet, Strategic Vision (a good, albeit partisan Republican pollster) will come in with something in the high single digits, thanks in part to a slightly more GOP lean and the newer Cantwell story.
Would anyone care to offer any proof as to how this poll is excessively Dem-biased, based on the internals or Rasmussen's record? There really isn't any. I believe it, even if I think it is probably a tad closer, especially now.
Posted by: Alcon on September 12, 2006 02:17 PMIt shows that McGavick's January-August campaign produced no gains by early September and is back to 35%. That means that if the election were held today, he's toast.
The analysis that concludes he needs to win big in the suburbs is interesting - but not supported by facts. A 17 point spread indicates trouble in all 39 counties.
My advice: ignore Mike's current plea for $40 dollars based on his claim that polls show him "neck-and-neck" and the race "too close to call" and send your money to a candidate you can trust and that has a chance of winning. The big bucks gang is already making the same call.
Posted by: redflag on September 12, 2006 06:05 PMOne of the things that makes SoundPolitics worth looking at is that people generally have the courtesy to express their views - or have their arguments - in English a step above the level of sewage.
Stefan - any thoughts on this?
Posted by: ReaganROCKS! on September 12, 2006 09:00 PM