September 09, 2006
Fodder for Poll Geeks
For those who enjoy digging into the weeds of polls and their methodologies, the PI's Strange Bedfellows blog provides some insight into the recent poll on the Reichert v. Burner Congressional race, a poll about which the blog was already skeptical.
The link provided by Strange Bedfellows to pollster.com's analysis of the poll and its newer methodology is interesting, for those that enjoy such in-depth discussions.
Personally, even before someone questions the methodology of the poll, I'm not sure what to make of it since in the aggregate, Democrats have been riding a nice wave the last couple weeks, perhaps even hitting a peak. Such trends will thus be reflected in various poll numbers, notably because if the election were held today, Democrats seem more motivated than Republicans to vote. I think that will tighten in coming weeks...but more on that later.
UPDATE: In follow-up to commenter KS, here is the Survey USA poll that showed Reichert with a 54%-41% lead. My own hunch is the race is probably closer to a 7 or 8 point lead, but I think the poll noted in the original post above is worth examining given its unique methodology...especially since pollster.com has provided such a thorough examination.
Posted by Eric Earling at September 09, 2006
09:55 AM | Email This
1. God of she wins..... i dont know if theres any hope for Washington Dave Riechert beyong a great politician is the closest thing to a hero King County has....maybe even Washington
A few weeks ago - Reichert was up 54-41% in the Rasmussen Poll (I believe), but know he was well ahead.
Before you publish polls, how about finding out their sampling, track record and other information ? It seems like their sample was something like 70-30 Democrat. I don't trust the sampling of this particular poll.
Just because I put a poll up for consideration and digestion doesn't mean I agree it is correct. In fact, especially for races below the statewide level, I'm very hesitant to trust any one poll. I'm just putting it out there for people to consider, notably because of the unique methodology used by the pollster in this case (and critiques therein), which is worth at least understanding going into the meat of the campaign season.
What did we all learn about polls in the last election?
We learned that there's a straight 5% Democratic bias by most polls in every type of race.
Ergo, Dave has a nice cushion. Of course, when he whips Darcy's butt in November, all the liberals will cry 'Diebold machines did it!' because they were just oh-so-certain of those poll numbers.
5. ...all the liberals will cry 'Diebold machines did it!'...
They can't, because those machines would have been installed by KC Elections, and we all know that KC Elections is perfect, can do no wrong, and never makes any mistakes.
6. Whatever the final margin of victory for Reichert, most of us know that Darcy Burner has no business running for this particular office. But then most big pursuits such as this starts with a dream. Dream on Darcy, dream on...
I believe that Seattle is hopeless and collectively stupid enough for Darcy who ? to get more votes, but the 8th District has some degree of common sense and will reelect Dave Reichert by a comfortable margin, regardless of what that poll says..
Just because of that poll, he should campaign hard from hereon and start bringing up illegal immigration reform so that everyone can see how she ineffectual she would be - siding with Howard Dean and the rest of the moonbats who make up the leadership of that once respectible but respectable no more party.
Everyone here is making perfect sence except for Eric. Don't know what's up with him tonight.
Andre @ 1 is spot on. If Reichert lost we would be losing a man who was the boss of the boss of the guys who caught the GRK! He definately deserves ALL of the credit though. Also, he once jumped in a window of a perp's house and let the perp take him hostage at knifepoint, a true hero! And he definately doesn't beat his wife, anymore. I would say that Reichert is the third greatest hero in the nation right now, after Mel Gibson and Paris Hilton!
KS @ 2 is correct. Eric clearly wasn't thinking when he "published" the results of a poll that showed Dave Reichert losing to Darcy Burner. He should have assumed that the poll was a vicious trick or something and looked for hints and inuendos to back it up. That's what we've come to expect here at SP.
Eric @ 3 is wrong. Period.
Larry @ 4 is on the nose. These polls always skew exactly 5% towards the democrat because independant polling companies know that they will make more money if they are less accurate at predicting the winner.
Mike H @ 5 is deft once again. And since there are no Diebold machines in either King or Pierce Counties... then that must be the mistake!
Gary @ 6 could not be more right. Darcy burner doesn't deserve to be in this race. Heck she's only the candidate because she came out of nowhere at age 35, bucked her party, raised early money and won endorsements on zero name rec, and eventually became the "favorite" house challenger of her party's national leader by her sheer will. When Darcy loses she will know she should never, ever have run, even if her margin is a loss by 1 vote. For anyone to lose to Reichert by a small margin would prove that they are unfit to be a federal representative.
KS @ 7 is absolutely correct. The 8th district knows it's issues. That's why Reichert should start talking about cutting citizenship by birth out of the constitution. And while he's at it he should point out that he is pro life (mostly) and Darcy is not and that he "puts his trust in the president" on the Iraq War. Those issues will definately click with the people of Auburn and Kent.
Riechert >55 percent.
Burner is an unqualified candidate who's in way over her head. Nothing is going to change that.