An article on falling gas prices in yesterday's USA Today is worth noting for the purposes of related effects on the local political scene. If gas prices fall notably, Republicans will fare better in November.
Don't believe me? See this chart for the interesting correlation between gas prices and President Bush's job approval ratings. Still don't believe me? See this article on long-term analysis from Business Week noting the same trend for recent Presidents...or this column from Dick Morris recounting Bill Clinton's concern about gas prices. All of which is an interesting combination to a recent column by Larry Kudlow on the potential impact of higher than normal oil inventories.
It's been no secret high gas prices have been a drag on consumer sentiment, opinions of the economy, and incumbent job approval. If gas prices keep dropping, Republicans will benefit.
Posted by Eric Earling at August 31, 2006 07:55 AM | Email ThisYou beat me to it. I can hear the MoveOn/Daily Kos crowd screaming bloody murder now (not that they don't already).
Posted by: Mike H on August 31, 2006 09:07 AMIf I had to put my conspiracy theory hat on, I'd say Iran and terrorist countries will flood the market with cheap crude to make further investment in alternative energies unviable THUS breaking the will of oil addicted americans to do anything to Iran that would cause an energy price spike.
I know my heating oil bill isn't going to tip the economic scale, but I'm tired of putting money into the pockets of terrorists.
Posted by: Andy on August 31, 2006 09:10 AMMe too. That's why we need to both have new energy, Nuclear and use the oil resources we currently have. Not developing the oil resources we have is foolhardy.
Of course I just bought a new house and won't be doing oil heat, but gas. I wonder what the savings/costs will really be though.
Posted by: Dengle on August 31, 2006 09:34 AMThis is a great blog. I'm going to be sure to link yours to mine. Would you mind doing the same for me?
Thank you very much.
My site:
www.americanlegends.blogspot.com
Take care,
Mark
With those two out of the way, I wanted to point out that the price of gas seems to trail Pres. Bush's job approval rating. If gas prices were what drove the rating, then I would believe that it would be the other way around - the price would drop, then Bush's rating would go up. Since it appears to be the other way around, I would guess that this means that the positive things that are attributed to Bush (swift response to Sept. 11, seemingly good plan in Afghanistan, tax cuts, etc.) drive gas prices down. On the other hand, the negative things attributed to Bush (higher deaths in Iraq, for example) drive gas prices up. I am not meaning to place blame for this, just point out that this is more of what I see from the graph.
With that take on things, yes, if gas prices drop more, then it is because the market sees the supply rising, rather than tight supply vs. demand. This would also mean that more people would feel like "Bush is doing a better job", it appears.
Posted by: Steve on August 31, 2006 10:06 AMI think the polite Bush has been in the background for too long for the Rs to dig themselves out of this one. But, who knows. Pelosi, Rangel, Dingell, Conyers, et al, scare me big time.
Posted by: swatter on August 31, 2006 10:07 AMAs well they should.
Posted by: Cheryl on August 31, 2006 11:34 AMI'm sure you saw this... Let's think about how the Democrats would govern.
The thought of Pelosi 3rd in line of succession to the presidency....
Posted by: Cheryl on August 31, 2006 11:37 AMWhat's wrong with this picture?
A political group actually wants you to have a miserable life so they can "save" you. The more miserable the more they like it. Picture Demorats gleeful when you lose your job, gas is $3.50 a gallon or your investment portfolio goes negative.
What kind of screwed-up worldview is that? How can anybody in their right mind trust people who think like that? For at least 6 years they have tried to prevent, to the best of their ability, you from being prosperous. A perfect example is Cantwell voting against (at all cost or compromise) a sales tax deduction or making oil more reasonable by making refineries easier to build. Just those two cost the average household a grand or more a year.
This is the "party of the people".
I would give the Republicans a D (the Senate gets a D- and House gets a D+) on what they have been able to accomplish - with control of the Senate and House. Normally, it is better to have split control - for the sake of bipartisanship, but I am not sure about that in today's climate. Hopefully things will change for the better in '08, but realistically, that won't happen unless there are no Bush's or Clinton's in a major role.
Posted by: KS on September 3, 2006 06:45 PMBack to the gas, It sounds like a conspriacy but if you look at the trends the gas prices did start to drop right before the 2004 election and now again?
But... alas (that's a word I saw in a comic book)every other election year - even father bush, who I voted for :) the prices went up before the election. Clinton even use to track the price of gas because it was an indicator of how an incumbent would fare. Unfortunately the oil giants know they will get their money no mattter who is in office and it's cheaper to donate to the campaigns than drop prices. See I am a moderate... but I still hate this president and his attempt to turn the presidency into an authoritarian rule :)
So if not political influence, can post-Labor Day demand seriously be argued as bringing about a 25 to 30 percent drop in gas at the pump?
Posted by: Andy too on September 10, 2006 11:59 AMOnce the election time is over the price will skyrocket and we will see record high prices again...lining the pockets of Big Oil and their friends.
Expect that he will start buying again for the stategic reserves soon and re-instate the EPA rules.....Which should hit in JAN for the heavy heating demand.....
But I love it because he is making me tons of money in my oil stocks....buy low, sell high.
You just need to know the crooks ways in order to profit from it.
Posted by: EricJ on September 16, 2006 07:25 AMBelieve me, I would love to believe that they are nefariously playing with gas prices. Actually, the mere fact that they are not trying to take credit for the drop in prices could be an indicator that they want to take advantage of the voter satisfaction but not tip their hand that they actually can control the prices that 6 months ago they said were affected only by the market.
I do like to think that I am not one of these partisan rats and I believe that obviously any adminstration might be able to shift some influence around, there are also other factors that could be affecting this.
EricJ's take is really interesting! But, consider this - I work at a gas turbine plant. I know that when Katrina hit last year it took many of the power plants off line due to the gas pipeline and refinery loss. We simply could not run because there wasn't any gas for the traders to purchase. Over the entire year (winter and into this summer) our suppliers have been over purchaseing and storeing the excess so that this hurricane season we did not end up in that psoition. Now due to a relatively cooler and shorter season we have surpluss gas and are buying less at this time of year than we did last year.
Unfortunately (or actually fortunately for us) this is the market working and not the 'Government of 6.
So it's these kinds of things that make me believe it's a whole lot of things at play. But!!!!! If gas prices do climb after the election I promise i will be the first to say .... You got me :)
Posted by: Eric on September 20, 2006 05:49 AM