Observers of the 2004 Election may recall the Real Clear Politics "poll of polls" strategy of taking available polls, and averaging them together in a running assessment of where a given race is at. Such a tool has now been released for the race between Mike McGavick and Maria Cantwell. It's definitely worth checking in on as the election unfolds.

The current poll average is skewed by a recent Survey USA poll, a firm I've noted my preference for here. This poll does raise an eyebrow given that it's out of the range of other major pollsters, and since Survey USA is kind enough to provide cross tabs, I gave it a closer look. One challenge is that until after the primary, Survey USA is using only "registered voters," rather than the more reliable "likely voters" used currently by Rasmussen and Strategic Vision for example. But, the real tale of this poll is that it says Cantwell is leading 51%-45% with rural voters, and 54%-42% in Eastern Washington. Anyone who wants to believe that is a good sample can be my guest.

Another smaller note on the Zogby poll. It uses an interactive Internet methodology that has its critics. That criticism is interesting, though even at that, one can still capture trends from long-term Zogby data so it's still of some value. However, this tidbit in Zogby's description of the race caught my eye: "Maria Cantwell remains in a strong position...thanks to a campaign strategy making much of gay marriage." Um, ok.

Every poll will have its warts - for example no pollster is yet including 3rd party candidates - but the "poll of polls" approach is always an interesting tool. It did fabulously well showing the actual trends and results going into the 2004 election, both for the presidential race as a whole, and the "battleground states" as well. Keep an eye on it in this race.

UPDATE: Also from Real Clear Politics is this blog post on Cantwell. I essentially agree with their summation of the race:

Right now, Cantwell's lead over Republican Mike McGavick stands at 9 points. That number is inflated a bit by a new SurveyUSA poll showing her with a 17-point lead. Three other polls released in the last two weeks show the race between 5 and 8 points. The first batch of polls after Labor Day will show exactly where this race stands. If Cantwell busts out to a double digit lead in the RCP average, the race is probably over. If McGavick can keep it close - meaning 5-7 points or better - with the debates and a bit of luck, he'll make it to election day with at least a chance of scoring an upset.