Despite recent hype, it is prudent to remain skeptical of the true electoral impact of the netroots. Darcy Burner's race is no exception.
A recent poll by Survey USA on the match up between Rep. Dave Reichert and Darcy Burner confirms this fact, showing a robust 54% - 41% advantage for Reichert. Not only is that spread well ahead of Reichert's 51.5% - 46.7% 2004 win over a well-financed and well-known opponent in Dave Ross, the cross tabs of the poll reveal more notable trends.
Specifically, Reichert holds his Republican base (91%-6%) better than Burner holds hers (79%-14%). More importantly, Reichert maintains not only a solid lead among independents (53%-40%), but does a significant job gleaning votes from individuals voicing disapproval of President Bush, who favor Burner only 66% - 27%. That contrasts sharply with the netroots mantra that such races should be all about Bush, since they apparently view their loathing of the man as the key to victory this year...because of course no one could disagree that Bush = Republican = Bad = Vote for Democrat, right?
Candidly, the spread in this poll is higher than I expected, and the small percentage of undecided voters should be cause for concern in the Burner camp. Moreover, Survey USA polls (and those from Rasmussen) are not easily dismissed as some would like to claim. Survey USA's own track record is well-documented at their own website, and for those looking for more independent sourcing, one can read this report from Slate (that lion heart of conservatism) extolling Survey USA and Rasmussen as the most accurate pollsters in 2004, an election festooned with more polling data in the closing weeks than even many political junkies could track.
In addition, it is also worth noting the Survey USA sample size of 700 adults and 609 registered voters is quite good for a Congressional District, and may be even better after the primary when Survey USA notes it will filter down to an even more accurate universe of "likely voters."
Long story short: Reichert has a big lead, and Burner and her allies will have to do more serious harm to his candidacy than pointing fingers saying "don't vote for him, he doesn't think George Bush is evil!" I've not seen evidence yet they can make that case.
Posted by Eric Earling at August 26, 2006 12:34 PM | Email ThisReichert does look to have been hurt by the Plan D matter with regards to his lack of support from seniors. That may not have been something the Burner campaign was making a number one target, but it looks like they might benefit from the U.S. Chamber of Congress advertising snafu to a degree.
What I would have liked to see was a breakdown that indicated name recognition in the poll. People naturally won't tend to support the candidate they are not familiar with.
This early poll is favorable to Reichert and the Burner campaign will surely be working harder to reach more people.
Posted by: Daniel K on August 26, 2006 03:37 PMBURNER = HIGHER TAXES
vote for Reichert.
Posted by: Michele on August 26, 2006 09:11 PMBurner hasn't really helped herself with the recent ads or radio and TV appearances - that show her to be IMO an empty skirt.
Posted by: KS on August 26, 2006 10:11 PMBurner hasn't really helped herself with the recent ads or radio and TV appearances - that show her to be IMO an empty skirt.
Posted by: KS on August 26, 2006 10:11 PMAnd when she loses this race by a large margin, the Dems will push her overboard. This is the beginning and end of Darcy Burner the politician.
By any standard, she's a very weak candidate with very little depth. I can't believe this is the best the Dems can do. Oh wait .... yes I can.
Posted by: Jeff B. on August 27, 2006 12:19 PM