August 18, 2006
Balter's no Woodward and Bernstein
Joni Balter's latest dollop of journalistic prowess and political insight thumbsucking is yesterday's column: "Cantwell's no Lieberman"
Sen. Joe Lieberman, pro-war Democrat, got a deserved comeuppance in his primary loss to a well-heeled Democratic challenger.
There is no pith or deep meaning. Lieberman lost because he was out of touch with the anti-war sentiments of his state. ... Republicans try to portray the anti-war movement as a fringe element that has taken over the Democratic Party. Sentiment against the war by now is not only the essence of the Democratic Party but also a big chunk of the independent and Republican vote as well.
But according to the
latest Quinnipiac poll of Connecticut voters: "Ned Lamont's Democratic primary win was based on a very small percentage of voters statewide" and
Sen. Joseph Lieberman, running as an independent, gets 53 percent of likely voters, with 41 percent for Democratic primary winner Ned Lamont and 4 percent for Republican Alan Schlesinger
We'll see how well Balter's
analysis thumbsucking holds up on November 7.
Balter's other recent journalistic coup thumbsucker was "Can Burner bushwhack Reichert?"
Reichert's high-profile fundraiser, starring George W. Bush, was supposed to fill his kitty. More likely, it tied Reichert closer to Bush, a good thing in Omak, not Bellevue. In quick response, Burner's fundraising increased, a sign of how truly unpopular Bush is in parts of Washington.
Let's see how well the data supports Balter's
thoughtful punditry thumbsucking. The Bush fundraiser was on
June 16th. Here's what I found from analyzing the
itemized contributions that each candidate received between June 16th and the end of the reporting period, June 30th:
| |
Reichert |
Burner |
| Period Total |
$397,812
|
$260,839
|
| Out-of-state |
$123,950
|
$146,684
|
| In-state |
$273,862
|
$114,155
|
| In-district |
$182,662
|
$59,580
|
In addition, for the entire 2nd Quarter, Burner received $133,100 in unitemized individual contributions and Reichert received $45,009. It's impossible to say from the public data when and whence these contributions were made, but even if all of Burner's unitemized contributions were in-state and made after the President's visit and even if none of Reichert's unitemized contributions were in-state and after the President's visit, Reichert would still beat Burner on reported post-Presidential in-state contributions. [sources: FEC reports for
Burner and
Reichert]
Burner's fundraising may well have increased, but apparently not enough to prove Joni's underlying point. Sorry, Joni. Maybe it's time for trade in your thumb for some research.
Posted by Stefan Sharkansky at August 18, 2006
01:13 PM | Email This
1. If Joni got off her fat ass and did a little research she might have found that...
Lieberman may not be as badly off as the hype might suggest. Only 34% of Democrats said Lieberman should not be reelected. Of those, 30% cited the war. Thus only 10.2% of Democrats appear to be primarily reacting in opposition to Lieberman's war position. Another 13% say he is too conservative and 11% more say he's "too close to Bush". Adding that in amounts to 58% of the 34% opposed to reelection citing ideology and support for Bush or the war, a total of 19.7% of Democrats. That is undoubtedly an intense and activated 19.7%, and in the primary they may have substantial say. But it remains well shy of a majority of Democrats in Connecticut, 56% of whom still say Lieberman deserves reelection and 57% of whom say they would vote for Lieberman in the general election.
2. "Burner's fundraising may well have increased, but apparently not enough to prove Joni's underlying point."
To show that you would have to compare Burner's fundraising before and after the visit, rather than comparing Burner's to Reichert's. So never mind Balter, I'm not sure what your point is until you have a little more fun with Excel.
3. Balter is wrong about one thing. The war was just one of many important issues in the CT Primary. However the results reflect the nation's growing unfavorability toward the war.
Gallup: 56% of Americans think Iraq was a mistake.
4. Please tell Joni that Joe wasn't out of touch with the locals. It was the national carpetbaggers that swung that election.
5. BTW, the part of the post about Burner's fundraising is hilariously wrong. You tried to spin your numbers but they still add up to Burner raising a disproportionate amount of money after Reichert campaigned with Bush. That means Balter's Point is 100% correct.
If the question is did the event cost Reichert more than it benefited him, that's harder to say. But Bush's fundraising boost helped Reichert for 4 hours on one afternoon, while they continue to help Burner raise money and win votes.
For Burner, the Bush visit was truely the gift that keeps on giving.
6. A little context, Sorry Charlie- Balter's next sentence, which Stefan omitted, was "He lost because he embraced so many of unpopular President Bush's policies that a picture of the president apparently kissing Lieberman was too powerful and overwhelming."
7. Also keep in mind that for the unitemized contributions, a lot of those are 25 or 50 dollar checks...that means a lot more individual people gave to Burner. As opposed to the thousand dollar admission price for the Bush fundraiser. The fact that Burner managed to outraise Reichert for the quarter, with a greater number of small donations, shows a lot of support for her campaign.
8. Did you ever think that if we weren't so "in-bed" with the Israelis we may have not had the 9/11 catastrophy happen to us?
9. Leiberman is out of touch with the "anti-war" sentiments IN THE CONN. DEMOCRAT PARTY. Statewide, when you factor in non-moonbat votes, Leiberman starts looking very mainstream, if the polls are to be trusted.
An inconvenient truth for Lamont-ers?
10. Libertarian,
I think it is more that if we were not so "in bed" with our principles and values 9/11 would not have happened.
11. Libertarian,
Huh? I hope that was a feeble attempt at sarcasm.
Otherwise, you need a history class, because you must believe that 9/11 was the first terrorist attack ever carried out against the United States.
What would your solution be? To get 'in bed' with Saudi Arabia? Would that help?
How about those bombs discovered in Germany in late July? Do you think the Germans are in bed with the Israelis?
And what about the bombings in Madrid? The Spanish have been in bed with Israel for years, right?
It seems terrorists are carrying out attacks against just about every civilized country in the world, without regard to whether that country is sleeping with Israel. Does this bolster your assertion, or toss it into the latrine?
Comments? Questions? Been awhile since you did any critical thinking, or what?
12. Libertarian - Don't forget the India train bombings - India and Israel are next to each other alphabetically the UN general assembly. That really pisses the Imams off. Oh well, Queen Isabella of Spain expelled the Jews in 1492 so the Madrid bombings must have just been a delayed reaction. If we split from Israel, we will be safe by the year 2506.
13. Comments? Questions? Been awhile since you did any critical thinking, or what?
Posted by Larry at August 18, 2006 03:42 PM
==============
What I want to do is get us out of the middle of this religious war, Larry.
14. Libertarian,
You or the west don't have that choice. This religious war will not end until you personally embrace islam. Says so in the koran. Like it or not, believe it or not, time for you to wake up and smell the coffee!
15. Yup. The religious conflicts are the problem. So, if only India would go Muslim, and Italy, Spain and France would go Muslim, and the US and UK would go Muslim, all of our problems will be over.
The only question is...do we go Sunni or Shite? The wrong choice there could have pretty serious consequences.
16. Don't forget that Burner is hyped in the moonbat lib blogosphere. These folks are likely to donate to her campaign from Massachusetts and California...hence artificially pumping up her numbers due to the nationwide advertising she gets from the hive mind.
17. Of course in some circles, not being a Woodward or Bernstein could be considered a compliment.
18. Liberal journalists don't have to have facts, just opinions and feelings. They know that most of the masses that live by feelings don't care about truth, just what sounds good and make them feel better.
19. Thank you for your opinions and feelings, Dengle.
20. Dengle's feelings are closer to reality than Ben Diamond's facts.