August 17, 2006
Voodoo Economics

"Tunnel is well worth extra money, study says"

Danny Westneat is less impressed.

Posted by Stefan Sharkansky at August 17, 2006 11:15 AM | Email This
Comments
1. People are going through stages of grief, Pascall said: "It's facing the death of the viaduct that is a challenge."

Whatever. Here's an economist hired by downtown businesses trying to tell us about our psychological makeup.

Ask Economist Glenn Pascall how much he's paid for his Monorail car tabs and how many rides he's taken on said Monorail.

Posted by: Larry on August 17, 2006 11:28 AM
2. Since it's such a good investment I will be forwarding a check as soon as my inheratence executes in my favor. I was just notified adn was wondering what I was going to do with all this money

...regarding Morgan
On behalf of the Trustees and Executor of the
Estate of Late Engineer Morgan W. Robert, I once again try to notify
you as my earlier letter to you through the Post Office were returned
undelivered, therefore I now attempt to reach you via your email
address as it appears to be the next and the only option left
unexplored. Engineer Morgan W. Robert (late), made you a beneficiary in
his will, he left Seven Million, one Hundred thousand United States
Dollars to you in the codicil and last testament to his will.
Engineer Morgan W. Robert was a pioneer member of STRABAG CONSTRUCTION
CO. LTD, a dedicated Christian and Philanthropist. He died on the 9th
day of February 2004 at the age of 82 and his Will is now ready for
execution in your favour.
Please do get in touch with me for further
details. thru this ID: gilbertoak22@yahoo.co.in
Respectfully,
Dr. Gilbert Oak.
Global Chambers.

Posted by: JDH on August 17, 2006 11:43 AM
3. I also prefer my religious icons made out of solid gold.

Posted by: JCM on August 17, 2006 12:00 PM
4. What disturbs me is that it will cost WAY more than the 4 billion figure they are tossing around. I wouldn't be surprised if that figure tripled when it is all said and done. A cost increase is a given. Nothing that government does EVER costs less and big ones ALWAYS cost more . . . a lot more. But what disturbs me the most is that the new tunnel will handle far less traffic than the other three more sane solutions (bridge, repair or direct replacement) and they have said that right up front. Although I'd bet you would be hard pressed to find anybody from Hiz Honor's office that would admit that now. How is more traffic congestion a solution?

The chance of this becoming a "Big Dig" are just astronomical and I believe that the proponents are playing their cards real close to their chests at this point, not letting on what they really suspect/know. If this monster gets approved, the details that will then leak out will make people weep (or move away).

Personally, I think that the drive along the viaduct is the most beautiful in the city. I've come from meetings down south and always find the view to be quite calming. I love it. To see that view, that anybody can enjoy, go away would be the biggest crime of all.

Posted by: G Jiggy on August 17, 2006 12:06 PM
5. Seattle will re-work the AWV versus digging a tunnel or building the Elliot Bay Bridge. With a bridge or a tunnel, the state constitution says a toll can be charged. If they simply re-work the AWV, then funding will come out of regular road work money. No toll!

Tolls are only paid by the little people, like those barbarians in Pierce county and the new Narrows Bridge project.

Posted by: Libertarian on August 17, 2006 12:08 PM
6. Sheer insanity from Nickels and City Hall. If we build the tunnel, will it also end the conflict in Palestine?

And what galls me more is that none of these projects on this scale ever stay within budget. This is not a new bridge where costs are much easier to estimate, this is a giant can of worms. Who knows what will be found when the digging begins, and what if the land is much more unstable, or the sea wall in much harder to properly build, etc. I think it is very conservative to say that the tunnel could balloon out to $5 Billion.

But Seattle is largely made up of easily lead idiots. Groupthink has such a grip on Seattle that most voters won't even begin to take a rational approach to what is economically possible, what has the least impact during construction, etc. Seattle voters will just be duped into believing the rhetoric as long as it comes from one of the prominent smiling socialists.

What makes the most sense is a bridge. But Seattle really deserves a tunnel because at some point, the best thing to do is let bad ideas play out. In the wake of disaster, folks might finally wake up and reject the awful and irrational Seattle leadership that they have elected.

Posted by: Jeff B. on August 17, 2006 12:10 PM
7. Hello Mr. Economic Consultant. I want to dig a car tunnel below sea level on unstable soil in an earthquake zone along the Elliot Bay waterfront. I'll pay you $250,000 to determine what the economic advantages will be.

Suprise, suprise, suprise! It will be the biggest economic boom Seattle has ever experienced.

I only wish we could build two.

Posted by: Jeffro on August 17, 2006 12:33 PM
8. Wonderful article in the Times from Danny Westneat:

"You know the genre. Someone wants to build something at taxpayer expense. Taxpayers are dubious. So an economist is hired to show how the project, once financed by us, will print dollars like the U.S. mint."

Well, at least this is one example of the left apparently believing in "trickle down economics". Except in their version they pick our pockets first.

Posted by: Bill Cruchon on August 17, 2006 12:34 PM
9. Wow. You know it's got to be a pretty thinly veiled "study" when even Westneat sees right through it. I like my headline better, though: Study Funded By Tunnel Supporters Supports Tunnel. :^)

I want the bridge. Someone needs to organize a "pro bridge" group.

On a somewhat related note (taxes & roads), did you catch the brilliant comment by a reader on the P-I's website regarding the $1.6 billion tax package?

Posted by: The Tim on August 17, 2006 12:46 PM
10. Will they put big, 'anti-tailgating' dots in the tunnel? Even better would be colored dots! Heck put the dots on the walls as well. Cool man.

Posted by: danno on August 17, 2006 12:57 PM
11. Hey, maybe it will work out like light rail. We were promised 22 miles of train for $3.1 billion to be completed by 2004.

We're getting 14 miles for currently projected $6 billion (and rising) to be completed by...well they haven't come up with that...and remember, it's within budget according to WSDOT!

So, if the tunnel is ran as well (and there's no reason to think it won't be), it will end about 1 mile short..not connect to any highway or freeway (generally not go where people want to go) and cost us $8 billion to be completed in about 2040. I don't know why we wouldn't want this option...it's easy to see how we'll make money on it!

Posted by: DRW on August 17, 2006 01:09 PM
12. there was an article in the WSJ a couple days ago that spoke to the lack of demand for Satellite radio. The people who were selling satellite radio were, for all intents and purposes, giving away the equipment and service so that they could point to "demand" as an enticement to get people to invest. The "free" service period has expired and guess what? Only a fraction of those who "subscribed" when it was "free" chose to pay for the service. That is of those who actually activated their "free" service in the first place. What this shows is that most people place very little value in this product. O.K. Sound Transit continually trots out the ridership numbers on the Tacoma Link Light Rail as evidence for the demand for Light Rail in general. The filth that is our regional MSM knows full well that this service was originally to have a fair-box cost to the riders and they know that to comparing the number of people who ride for "free" to those projected to ride when they had to pay to board is totally corrupt, however they collaborate with ST by printing headlines announcing that ridership exceeds projections with a glowing article of how much people value the service below. This is blatantly dishonest and a disservice to their readers, however they have long shown nothing but contempt for their readers. Today's Westneat article shows some hope, but I wouldn't stake too much on it.

Posted by: JDH on August 17, 2006 01:29 PM
13. Speaking of headlines, how about lining one up from this quote: "The only reason you clowns keep getting elected is that too many sane detainees have escaped the asylum rather than stay and fight an irrational and corrupt city hall."

It's a beautiful city with a dysfunctional electorate and electoral choices roughly comparable to a Soviet gulag.

There's very little to choose from in comparing the economic/political savvy and performance of the Seattle/KC elites and that of the Soviet system. Command economies do not fare well in the real world.

I wish that I could say that I'm surprised.


Posted by: scott158 on August 17, 2006 01:58 PM
14. If it were not for the fact that we would all end up paying to clean up the mess they started, I would say let the A$$-hats in Seattle start digging.

Posted by: JDH on August 17, 2006 02:12 PM
15. retrofit is still the best option for me and it is cheaper.

Posted by: swatter on August 17, 2006 03:40 PM
16. i'm for retrofitting too; ugly? maybe, but only ones complaining 'ugly' are the high rise dwellers and their views of the waterfront; like me moving near a dairy farm and insisting on no smells; besides, if they want art, they have a nice park downtown with huge colorful "pisseries" for the drunks; i wince at another Big Dig fiasco due to the waste, union control and no performance audits on projects;

Posted by: Jimmie-howya-doin on August 17, 2006 04:01 PM
17. I have a degree in economics, and here is my favorite quote on the subject, which is very appropriate on this topic:

"THE ONLY PURPOSE SERVED BY ECONOMIC FORECASTING IS TO LEND CREDIBILITY TO ASTROLOGY", by some Stanford economist in the mid-1980s.

Posted by: Don on August 17, 2006 05:12 PM
18. "14 million to $28 million in sales taxes on new construction"

Wait... I thought that sales tax rebates on construction materials are one of the line items they are using to bring down the cost of the project? So are they getting the sales tax or not? (It'd be funny money either way)

Posted by: Ian on August 17, 2006 05:23 PM
19. Ian--good question--

have you travelled East on the bug city subways? "Watch the card (or shell)" sez the friendly man in the train to the astounded, mouth-agape tourist...

Posted by: Jimmie-howya-doin on August 17, 2006 08:11 PM
20. Ian--good question--

have you travelled East on the big city subways? "Watch the card (or shell)" sez the friendly man in the train to the astounded, mouth-agape tourist...

Posted by: Jimmie-howya-doin on August 17, 2006 08:11 PM
21. apologize for the double-posting--i thought it was election time;

Posted by: Jimmie-howya-doin on August 18, 2006 07:21 AM
22. Boston already has the "big dig" suppose the Seattle mess can be called "The HOG TROUGH"? Sure looks like pork barrel run amok.

Posted by: randi on August 18, 2006 07:26 AM
23. Randi - Perfect analogy. "The HOG TROUGH". A cut and cover tunnel is a trough with a lid.

Stand aside Big Dig - here comes the HOG TROUGH.

Posted by: SouthernRoots on August 18, 2006 07:46 AM
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