CNNMoney.com reports on the latest BLS wage statistics -- most of the large counties enjoyed real wage growth. The most notable exception was Ron Sims' King County, which suffered an astonishing 7% shrinkage in real wages from 2003 to 2005.
Posted by Stefan Sharkansky at January 31, 2006 11:16 AM | Email Thistee hee
Posted by: libertarianobserver on January 31, 2006 11:57 AMMaybe we can shoot for 98th, lowering ourselves below Clayton County, Georgia?
Posted by: MJC on January 31, 2006 12:05 PMThey need to pump up the boondoggle transportation spending in King County so that King County Wages will look good!
This also explains much about the need for a quick Alaska Way Viaduct replacement that handles the sea-wall, and the need for expediting various other King County projects from the Brightwater WasteWater Treatment Plant to various Sound Transit projects! It also puts into perspective why some of the monorail insiders were so upset that they would be stopped!
Posted by: Bob on January 31, 2006 12:19 PMDo we have any economists who can explain this?
Also, remember these numbers were provided by King County. Can they count people and dollars as well as they count votes?
Posted by: huckleberry on January 31, 2006 12:23 PMRonin. That is a real good question!
I wonder if the KC crowd remember who Bill Richardson is? He used to work for Mr Clinton.
He moved up to become the Governor of New Mexico. His first act upon becoming governor was to cut business taxes by 20%. NM has been booming ever since. I wonder if anyone in Seattle or Olympia could make the connection in terms of cause and effect?
In the red Rossi counties, we're having economic growth...
Posted by: A Watchdog on January 31, 2006 12:32 PMSorry folks about that. Ooops!
Also, BTW, I blame (the pressures on) Boeing for King County's wage troubles.
Posted by: A Watchdog on January 31, 2006 12:34 PMI doubt they would preclude that any of the King County or State employees saw any shrinkage in their wages, since they seem to get raises frequently (10k apiece in Queen Gregoire's court) and are never subjected to the cuts in pay, benefits, and defined pension plan obliteration that the real world faces. But then they do have a neverending taxing scheme and endless surpluses to keep their heads well well above water whil they dream up new legislative tax buckets.
Posted by: GS on January 31, 2006 12:35 PMI wonder how government wages fared in the same time frame...
Posted by: SouthernRoots on January 31, 2006 12:37 PMThese figures cover a 24 month period ending in '05. Given that the NW is traditionally the slowest region to recover economically, these figures paint the worst of what has happened since the dot.crash-induced recession. Yes, Boeing is doing better but they are doing it with 30,000 fewer folks. The growth in the tech sector cannot off set the decline county-wide in all jobs (i.e. private sector)overall. Most growth, and this is speculation on my part, is in the government funded venues. That is a short-term upside as these jobs are paid for through taxes. As all Right-thinking people know, you cannot tax your way to prosperity. What will make these figures look better in '07 will be the Federal dollars that come into the state for the big projects. Even then I wonder if it will be enough to offset the loss in real jobs in the private sector.
Frankly, I doubt it.
If King County wants to see real wage growth, then get government out of the way - Ron Sims, Greg Nickels and the rest of the ruling elite is in deep denial here and fat chance that will change any time soon, so all the more reason to split up King County and have the eastern half start over and do it the correct/right way.
Posted by: KS on January 31, 2006 12:57 PMOk - how about we cut most of our outrageous sales taxes and quit spending cash of stupid crap?
Posted by: H Moul on January 31, 2006 01:12 PMTake a look at Table 2 in this BLS press release. It provides some detail about employment in the 10 biggest counties -- of which King is one.
It looks as though King County's "information" and "manufacturing" workers did pretty well. I haven't calculated the proportion of gov't workers in the total work force, but it doesn't look outlandish (with admittedly rough figure-it-out-in-my-head arithmetic).
If I understand what that table says, the average wage in private industry went up 4.9 percent and in government employment 4.0 percent -- apparently comparing the second quarter of 2005 to the same time in 2004.
Posted by: Micajah on January 31, 2006 01:15 PMWestern Washington (King, Snohomish and Pierce) have created regulatory barriers to growth. They are no longer competitive with other areas of the country. People and companies from other states have expressed a reluctance to "buy in" to the local business community which is fraught with regulations, unions and high taxes. Why bother when other business communities offer a much more competitive environment.
Growth of local business may be sustain till such time that the companies reach a point of significant expansion. It is not unusual at that point of inflexion for management to move headquarters and additional production facilities to another state. This continues to occur at an alarming rate. Washington State has lost a number of jobs in this manner. The headliner being Boeing. Remember Governor Lock was clueless when this occurred.
The interests which normally invest in the local community (banks, insurance companies, etc.) are investing in other states. Money is flowing from your bank to other states.
Taxes and benefits are higher here than in other states. Not attractive or inviting.
Microsoft is outsourcing work to India. Why. They have more software engineers that cost less.
Olympia beer closed down because of demands made by the local government.
Over the past 40 years hundreds of companies have moved out. Hundreds of companies were not invited in. HP was planning to open a production facility in the 70's . After construction began they nixed the deal and went off-shore. Something about demands from the government drove them away. Over 1,000 jobs losed. The list is endless. Each week a company is deciding to remain or grow elsewhere.
what remains are the smaller companies that do not have a choice or can compete because of location. The housing industry is a good example of proximity competitiveness. However the companies producing products for that industry are hard pressed to compete with China. Door production once a vibrant industry is strained to compete with the imports.
There are an alarming few manufacturing companies in Washington State with sales in excess of $100 Million. There are even fewer publicly held manufacturing companies.Check the stats out.
Bottom line: Taxes, regulations,unions and poor governance are the cause. Move or rid the cause are the solutions.
Posted by: snuffy on January 31, 2006 01:19 PMAppears King Co is middle of the pack in terms of number of government employees to total percentage wise. Higher than places in Texas and Arizona, but lower than places like San Diego and New York.
Posted by: Palouse on January 31, 2006 01:31 PMI was in the pool! I was in the pool!!
sorry.
Nice recap, Snuffy. Explains a lot.
Posted by: jimg on January 31, 2006 02:30 PMNote that in the year-to-year data comparing June 2004 to June 2005, Pierce County, WA, is the one going into the tank. Page 3 of that BLS press release:
Six counties experienced over-the-year declines in average weekly wages. Pierce County, Wash., had the largest decrease, -7.9 percent, followed by the counties of Clayton, Ga. (-6.3 percent), Rock Island, Ill. (-2.9 percent), Spartanburg, S.C. (-2.3 percent), and Trumbull, Ohio (-1.3 percent).
If CNN got it right, then King County must have had a terrible time in the period between June 2003 and June 2004. King County did better than the national average in June 2004 to June 2005; so, if they really did badly over the two-year period as CNN says, then the earlier of those two years had to be really bad.
The rest of you: Please note that the data go up to June 2005. What policy of Mrs. Gregoire do you believe affected the 19 months prior to her installation in the governor's office?
Since the data refer to the prior administration, what policies of former Gov. Locke do you believe affected King County's performance?
Since King County seems to have done reasonably well in the 2004 to 2005 period, and perhaps did at least as well in the last 6 months of 2005 (I don't know if there are any data for that recent period.), what explains the comeback?
What, exactly, do the Republicans propose to change in order to achieve greater economic growth if they are elected this November in numbers that give them the majority in the state legislature?
It's an election year for the legislature, so are there any specific proposals included in any campaigns? Or, do we only get specific when there's an initiative in the works?
Posted by: Micajah on January 31, 2006 02:44 PMLook at the growth rates in states with low taxes & business friendly regulations.
Californians are streaming across the border to Nevada, led by retirees, small businesses and technology.
Living costs have always been high in Washington and King Co. and people will vote with their feet. Why would people stay in King Co. or Seattle when they can move to areas with lower living costs, less regulation, comparable or better schools, cheaper housing, etc.?
The outdoorsy-casual lifestyle of the area is no longer the draw it once was & Seattle is now no different than the other Democrat-controlled cities with all their attendant problems. It's just taking longer to catch up with King Co. than the others.
Posted by: Clean House on January 31, 2006 02:52 PMPublic debate should be about more capacity on roads, reducing taxes on business, encouraging good manufacturing "union" paying jobs, etc..
Even the metrosexuals on this board can see the need to change the public debate. At least, I hope so.
Posted by: swatter on January 31, 2006 03:07 PMProves my point.
Posted by: swatter on January 31, 2006 03:08 PMHeh-heh-heh...that was one of my favorite Seinfeld Shows jimg. The people of the People's Socialist Republic of Seattle (aka the Anal Canal of the Universe) are being lead down the unsustainable Primrose Path by a bunch of George Castanza wannabe loser's!
The whole so-called Progressive Movement is really a bowel movement based on smoke-and-mirrors....creating a Utopian image no one could be against. The problem is it's not achievable because it relies on more and more TAX INCREASES to sustain itself. The problem is too many folks either do not care (APATHY) or are in La-La Land (STUPIDITY). It creates for a situation where like most drug addicts, Seattle must hit rock bottom before it realizes the phoney premise of it's "vision".
Most of the posters on this board are welcome here in TX, or anywhere else in the south. You on the other hand come this direction at your own peril. You couldn't last one month down here.
Posted by: Danny on January 31, 2006 04:08 PMYou King County haters are welcome to head to Texas, Mississippi, or Alabama any day you want.
Nice to see you place yourself above all those plebeians in the South. Thankfully your cohorts at the top of the DNC continue to do the same thing which is why the south always votes Republican. It sure has to suck to be a Lefty.
Posted by: swassociates on January 31, 2006 05:19 PMTo be exact, according to the BEA, GDP expanded:
3.7% in 2001
0.8% in 2002
2.7% in 2003
4.2% in 2004
3.5% in 2005
Also, SoundSilly, I believe we were talking about wage growth, not population growth. It's not surprising wages are falling, if the King County residents aren't smart enough to distinguish between the two.
Why do we know this? Because the mighty Dwight Pelz, the new El Supremo of the Washington Democrats, used it as his mindless-repetition mantra today when Dori Monson asked him why King County was in the dumps compared to 200 other counties in the country.
Pelz, uber-socialist that he is, kept hammering away on the theme that the US economy is all controlled from Washington DC, and therefore King County's stupid economic and legislative decisions are all Bush's fault, with connivance from the evil Congress.
Snuffy, you had a good analysis of King and Western Washington. Care to comment on Pierce?
Posted by: Republican (by default) on January 31, 2006 06:44 PMThere are no companies moving TO Washington. There are only companies moving away. Neither Microsoft nor Amazon nor Boeing would be located here in any capacity if they weren't founded here. They've stuck around DESPITE the business climate, but Boeing did fire a pretty signifcant warning shot across the bow when they moved HQ to Chicago.
What CEO wants to move to King County when he or she knows the local costs of doing business? What CEO wants to move to King County when they realize that they won't be able to develop 65% of their rural family spread??
But the local intelligentsia claims that the economy is bad everywhere (completely untrue). Somehow Ron Sims and King County have managed to lower everyones' wages during an expansion of GDP that far surpasses anything in Clinton's Administration.
Ron Sims can't be failing, because nobody can fail - unless they're a Republican.
Posted by: Larry on January 31, 2006 07:15 PMYou asked about specific policies, and I would point to the dithering about Boeing a few years back as being a specific policy that stunted growth. Had Gary Locke and company shown some actual leadership, we would not have seen the competition that saw Boeing's highest paying jobs move to Chicago. Furthermore, the uncertainty about Boeing's direction also caused a hold on expansions that could have grown the wage base as suppliers waited to see what Boeing would do before they hired.
At the end of the day, Locke's terms were some of the worst years I've ever seen in terms of governmental leadership from either party. You would have thought he was being investigated for Watergate break-ins with how tentative Locke was from a policy leadership standpoint. Boeing was just one example, I-695 was another.
If Locke had shown leadership in either of these two areas, the recovery from the dot.com bust would have mattered far less than it did in terms of the economic recovery.
Posted by: Marc on January 31, 2006 07:23 PMVoters also OK'd initiatives to mandate pay raises for school employees and smaller class sizes without a mechanism to pay for them.
By the time you add the elected socialists and their bureaucratic allies to the mix, it isn't hard to see why things are the way they are...
Posted by: Michael on January 31, 2006 07:27 PMWhat CEO wants to move to Chicago where taxes would make a native Northwesterner's head spin?
Someone else mentioned Overland Park, Boise and Sparks. The first two are in states with income taxes; Nevada would have one two if not for them being the nation's bookie.
Posted by: CandrewB on January 31, 2006 07:55 PMWill her next quote be: "I voted FOR Samual Alito BEFORE I voted against him".
At least she gets a point for not filibustering (unlike Murray).
Posted by: Realist on January 31, 2006 08:11 PMIt appears that no matter how you spin it - the King County economy - under Democratic (Ron Sims) control - is declining at an unacceptable rate.
Over the past 10 years, I've seen many companies and corporations moving their operations out of our state due to the B&O taxes, workers comp. regulations, etc... Everywhere you drive in King County - you see abandoned strip malls with one or two tenants - usually recent immigrants from other countries - sending their profits overseas... Not much comes into our county unless it's from Boeing...and that company is not as stable as it use to be...
I'm shocked that "WalMart" even wants to do business in this county!
Talk about a hostile business environment! Look what they did to the brewery, Weyerhauser, WalMart, etc..... The only company that seems to do well in King County is Ron Sim's buddy - Quadrant Homes....but that's what I would expect from such a wonderful campaign contribution....
Posted by: Deborah on January 31, 2006 08:52 PMNeed to tax the hell out of those bastards so that they'll..........
Well, at least we'll feel better in the short run, having all that meat to eat after having killed the cow.
You can bet Cant-vote-well would have joined her imbecilic senior senator in the filibuster line if she wasn't up for re-election this fall.
And....did you see Cant-vote-well sitting just below her '00 campaign debt fairy godmother (H. Klinton, darling of the TV network news cameras) last night at the State of the Union? Birds of a feather.....
I apologize for O/T post....couldn't help myself.
Posted by: Saltherring on February 1, 2006 05:37 AMSadly, it gets worse.
You spoke of driving around KC. I advise readers to drive around Aberdeen or Hoquiam; go over to Ritzville, Othello, or Spokane. I've seen neighborhoods in Mogadishu more upscale than some of these.
But then this is more than the effects of recession. It's politics.
Posted by: Diogenes on February 1, 2006 08:16 AMA GOOD EXAMPLE OF WHAT ‘S HAPPENING… IS TACOMA….80% OF TACOMA’S FIRE FIGHTERS DO NOT LIVE IN TACOMA….75% OF POLICE OFFICERS & 68% OF MUNICIPAL EMPLOYEES ALSO DO NOT LIVE IN THE CITY…”GREAT PLACE TO LIVE BUT WHO WANTS TO LIVE THEIR”
THE SAME THING IS HAPPENING IN SEATTLE EVERYONE IN THEIR “RIGHT” MIND AS LEFT!…THE ONLY ONES “LEFT” ARE THE: INVOLUNTARILY UNDOMICILED, PERSONS OF DIFFERING SOBRIETY, CHEMICALLY INCONVENIENCED, BACKPACKERS, SLACKERS, WTO’ERS, LIMO LIBS, ELITES, ACADEMIA, PANHANDLERS, SEXUALLY DYSFUNCTIONAL, SOBRIETY-DEPRIVED, CEREBRALLY CHALLENGED, CHRONOLOGICALLY GIFTED, HANDI-CAPABLE, DIFFERENTLY LOGICAL, ALTERNATIVELY SCHOOLED, ETHICALLY DISORIENTED, TRADITIONALLY UNDERREPRESENTED, VEGAN, PHARMACOLOGICAL PREFERENCE, KNOWLEDGE-BASE NONPOSSESSORS, PEOPLES ARTISTS, ECONOMICALLY EXPLOITED, VICTIMS, AFRO CENTRISTS, BIOCENTRISM, CEREBRO-ATMOSPHERIC INDIVIDUALS, ECOWARRIORS, FATOPHOBIC …AND OF COURSE LAWYERS!!!
There is a nice function on the BLS web site that allows you to "create customized tables" to focus on any particular county's wage and employment data.
Using that, I found that the quarterly data jumps back and forth quite a bit more than the annual averages. Note that the January 2006 BLS press release which showed Pierce County in a dive compared the 2nd quarter of 2005 to the same time in 2004 -- not a comparison of an entire year's data.
For King County, the average weekly wages on an annual basis were:
2001 -- 907
2002 -- 921 (1.5 percent increase)
2003 -- 942 (2.3 percent increase)
2004 -- 929 (1.4 percent decline)
2005 -- not available (Preliminary data for 1st and 2nd quarters only are available.)
CNN apparently split the data in some way to portray what had been happening in the 24 months from July 2003 through June 2005 -- and then adjusted for inflation to come up with King County's overall wage performance. I didn't see a way to use the third quarter of 2003 as the starting point in the "create customized tables," so I couldn't recreate what CNN did.
The BLS press release on Jan. 11, 2006, looked at a comparison of the 2nd quarters in 2005 and 2004. Note that King County's 2nd quarter comparisons jump around quite a bit more than its annual comparisons:
2001 -- 940
2002 -- 912 (3 percent decline)
2003 -- 950 (4.2 percent increase)
2004 -- 890 (6.3 percent decline)
2005 -- 933 (preliminary data, subject to revision; 4.8 percent increase)
The annual averages for weekly wages in King County do show the kind of slow growth that would result in the figures CNN came up with. Once you adjust for inflation, average weekly wages from 2001 through 2004 wouldn't keep up with any significant level of inflation. Unless the full year's data for 2005 shows a big jump, it would be likely that King County workers will not have seen their average wages go up in the past few years.
Did the "Priorities of Gov't" budget process and the decision not to raise general taxes in the 2003 legislative session make a difference in King County?
Did the budget and taxes passed in the 2005 legislative session make a difference? How soon would we know, since the economic effect usually lags behind the government's action by at least 6 months and often as much as a year?
I wish the GOP as an organization would be more specific about what they would do differently, so that we might have one of the unknowns removed from the equation.
Posted by: Micajah on February 1, 2006 11:08 AMThese numbers really look bad when you put them into the context of the cost of living in King County. Add to that the impact of the GasTax increase. WOW!
This is about to be another example of government putting itself ahead of the citizens they supposedly serve. In KingCo, they rely on the "I hate Bush" and blindly loyal KLOWNS to support them....even though droves of KLOWNS are being cost of living'ed out of Seattle. GOOD!
How much Sales Tax revenue and permit income will go to Seattle as a result of the Viaduct and other Public Works projects folks?????
If Seattle and Washington State were really concerned about more bang for the buck....all these taxes and fees would be waived, wouldn't they.
Massive projects like these FEED the bureaucrats.
Wake up folks and follow the money!!!
I believe that there are enough (majority) Republicans in our state to elect a conservative House and Senate, but they must appeal to and energize their base. To be elected, they must directly confront and repudiate Gregoirian policies, and they cannot equivocate. I think promises to directly overturn recent laws passed including voting laws, the gas tax, homosexual rights, and important regulatory controls on small business etc. will be the only way conservatives can be elected. Watch McGavick contrast himself to Cantwell based on her record. If he doesn’t no matter what else he may do or say . . . he will lose.
We cannot shrink from the fact that the leftist policies being put into place are extreme, and the consequences of them are vital to all of us. They lead the state in a direction that will soon be very difficult to restore to something workable (e.g., light rail debacle). We are now more polarized here in Washington State than ever before, and it is because of a dying (minority) national ideology that is still very alive here. If the goal is to make our state a prosperous, civilized, and decent place to live, every move the Democrats have made in recent times is wrong, and we cannot help any of this unless conservative candidates are willing to show some leadership by putting it all on the line.
One thing is certain . . . if conservatives try to appeal to liberals or liberal party objectives . . . THEY WILL LOSE!!
With that aside, I don't believe that the most important medium range solutions to the Greater Puget Sound area can come from legislators. We need a conservative governor who will lead the state to the right by addressing priorities including tax cuts, transportation, education, and support for business.
Here's an example of what frustrates me about the WA GOP: In their "Commitment to Washington" they have a purported legislative agenda for 2006 which says this about economic issues -- Get government out of the way of job growth by removing the regulatory burden on small business, repealing the death tax, and reforming unemployment insurance: HB 2424 (passed by House), HB 2672, HB 2771, HB 2841, HB 2847, SB 6309.
I checked each of those bills to see what they were.
HB2424 would exempt fuel used on farms from sales and use tax.
HB2841 and SB6309 appear to be efforts to repeal the tax on transfers of estates. (Naturally, they are worded in bassackwards fashion so that only a well-paid high priest of tax law would know for sure what they accomplish, but it appears that the end result would be elimination of the state's "death tax" so long as there is no "federal credit" in the federal Internal Revenue Code.)
HB2672 would change the due date for excise taxes to the 25th day after the end of the month rather than the 20th day, and would let people using a debit method initiate an electronic funds transfer 1 minute before midnight--long after the 5 pm deadline to make sure the state actually gets the money on the next banking day. (How's that for something to fire up the "base" and the economy? We are dying out here for a chance to be a little late on sending money to the state. Yeah, sure.)
HB2771 would require legislative review of any proposed administrative rule that prompts at least 200 people to send in letters of protest to the agency proposing the rule. (Why not just eliminate rule making absent a consensus?)
HB2847 would amend the "clean alternative fuels" tax break, so that it would be effective in 2007 rather than 2009 and would remain in effect until 2017 rather than 2011. So, we could buy new vehicles that burn clean/alternative fuels and get a tax break. I can hardly wait.
This is their legislative agenda, their "commitment to Washington," which they would apparently put forth as the sort of thing they would do if in the majority.
Maybe it's something in the water.
The economic downturn gave Rossi and the state GOP the best chance they'd had in 10 years to win the governorship, but now the economy is recovering as market economies normally do. What is the GOP offering now? Tax exemptions for farm machinery fuel, no "death" tax, tax breaks for "hybrid" vehicles, and a way to stuff administrative rule making with a mere 201 letters of protest.
Not good.
Thanks for the excellent analysis. I agree that this is not good, and I hope that some of the candidates are reading this thread.
These measures are O.K. as far as they go, but as you point out, they do not energize anyone let alone the base of the Republican Party. Good leadership is hard to find especially when the only real motivation available to conservatives is the moral incentive of service to the public. Such character while laudable is rare, and quite different from the liberal credo. Most of those who would make good elected lawmakers and leaders are not interested in fighting a losing battle against the leviathan-like stupid machine that languishes proudly in Seattle.
Liberals love the machine and want to grow it ever larger. They will do and say anything for power. Conservatives love the people, respect a practical machine and understand how to press it into use for the benefit of the people.
It may well take further erosion and calamity to bring them forward.
Thanks for the excellent comments.
I suggest:
Reduce regulations as they impose a great deal of weight and cost of doing business and a great deal of cost on governance. For example: a local company considered expanding local facilities on existing property owned by the company. When the local city gave them the bill for beautification and parking allotment the company concluded that it was in their best interest to build a production facility in another state. 100 jobs lost. No big deal you may say. I say that perhaps this example typifies the extraordinary costs of doing business in Washington. And if that is the case, how many other jobs were lost to beautification and parking stall requirements. And in this small rural city a 100 jobs are meaningful.
Care to discuss doing away with the minimum wage laws?
Reduce taxes. As regulations are reduced taxes may be reduced in kind. It not only cost business money and time it cost the state government money and time. Perhaps even more for the the state government?
Reduce the hold of the unions. Allow all government employees to vote on union representation in a fair manner. Repeal the State laws that cater to unions. Allow non-union contractors to bid on state transportation projects and allow those contractors to pay competitive wages.
That it. Reduce regulations and taxes and the hold of the unions. Unfortunately this is impossible at this juncture as the current state administration has been bought and paid for by big labor. And as you know big labor runs the show regardless of negative impact. Just ask GM or Ford. As goes Detroit so goes Washington.
Posted by: Snuffy on February 1, 2006 05:25 PMThis doesn't appeal to his base at all.
Not a good start.
Posted by: Amused by liberals on February 1, 2006 06:27 PMAs for McGavick - his message sounds rather incoherent, like he is trying to grovel to Seattle (?)
Posted by: KS on February 1, 2006 09:17 PM