This morning I was listening, briefly, to Seattle Times reporter David Postman on KIRO 710. Since the announcement that that King County would move to all mail elections had just come out, he and the host, John Procaccino, were discussing it. Neither seemed to see any objection to the change.
Which tells me that Postman must not read Sound Politics or my site regularly. If he did, he would know that when fraudulent votes are detected in American elections, the fraud is nearly always committed with mail ballots. There is no mystery about this; fraud is much easier to commit with mailed ballots, And mailed ballots make also bribery and intimidation much easier. There are places in the United States where "brokers" regularly collect votes in return for money or favors from the candidates. These brokers nearly always use mailed ballots, for reasons that should be obvious.
The problem is not limited to the United States; when Britain adopted mailed ballots recently, there was an immediate explosion of vote fraud and intimidation. Several Labour MPs reported that women in some Muslim households were ordered to give their blank ballots to their husbands or brothers. (The Labour party responded to the fraud by promising more controls — and extending the use of mailed ballots.)
Some argue that using mailed ballots encourages participation. It may in the short run, though the evidence that it has a large effect is lacking. But I believe that, by making vote fraud easier and more common, mailed ballots will eventually discourage voting. It is simply a fact that, where vote fraud is pervasive, participation is usually low. if people begin to believe that the system is rigged, they will tend to withdraw from voting, and from other forms of participation.
Is it possible to reduce fraudulent votes by mail to a very low level? In my opinion, it is possible, but not practical — unless you are willing to give up ballot secrecy. Truly verifying signatures in a large electorate requires specialized skills and considerable resources.
But, even if you cut vote fraud with mailed ballots to a very low level, you would still be faced with other problems, such as the insecurity of our mail. A single mail clerk in Seattle could have tipped the election to either Rossi or Gregoire last year. (And may have, for all we know.) And since mailed ballots trickle in over weeks (months in some jurisdictions!), many voters miss the last parts of the campaign.
Who benefits from vote fraud by mailed ballots? In general elections, Democrats in most cases. When vote fraud is detected, the perpetrators are nearly always Democrats. Unless we assume that Democrats are less intelligent than Republicans, we have to conclude that the majority of cheaters are found in the Democratic party. (Though I hasten to add that most Democrats are honest, and many even disapprove of vote fraud committed by Democrats.) In primary elections, factions within the Democratic party benefit from vote fraud. And since vote participation is almost always lower in primaries, it is entirely possible that more Democratic candidates lose elections because of vote fraud than Republican candidates.
Moving to all mail ballots means that more elections will be decided by fraudulent votes. It means that every close win by a Democrat in a primary or a general election will look suspicious to the loser. A regular reader of Sound Politics would know these things. So, why doesn't David Postman?
(The Volokh site has a long and sensible directive to commenters, which begins with this paragraph:
We're trying something new here, perhaps quixotic but I hope useful. We'd like the posts to be civil, of course (no profanity, personal insults, and the like), but we're also hoping that people try to be as calm, reasoned, and substantive as possible. So please, also avoid rants, invective, and substantial and repeated exaggeration. Sticking with substance will make the comments more helpful to other readers, and more pleasant.
The comments there are, in my opinion, both more civil and more substantive that those at most sites. So their directive appears to have had a good effect. To read the rest of it, go to almost any of their posts, such as this one, and scroll down to the bottom. They have especially good advice for those who are certain they are right.)
Posted by Jim Miller at December 20, 2005 03:20 PM | Email ThisI still think we need to work at voting. I think you should have to make the effort to get dressed and go to the polls. So what if not many would vote then? Voting my mail allows the lazies to vote without knowing the issues.
Posted by: swatter on December 20, 2005 03:39 PMHowever, the simple fact that your buddy Ronnie wants all mail in ballots leave me very suspicious. He would not want a system that he could not manipulate in order to guarantee that he and his cronies win elections.
Posted by: BananaLand on December 20, 2005 03:47 PMIn response to who goes with what ballot.
Posted by: KPR on December 20, 2005 04:21 PMPerhaps David knows something you don't know..that the election 'crisis' is a figment of the wildest imaginations on this board.
Posted by: rossi too on December 20, 2005 07:08 PMPerhaps fraud is the norm in other states, but here in Washington, it hasn't been a problem.
What is Vote-by-Mail?
Vote by mail is a method of distributing ballots for an election. Instead of using traditional polling places where voters go to cast ballots on election day, a ballot is mailed to each registered voter. The ballot is then voted and returned to the county election office to be counted.
If you need a private, secure place to mark your ballot, contact your county election office. Every county provides privacy booths where you can mark your ballot. Usually, you can drop off your completed ballot at the same location.
Why are elections conducted by mail?
The major reasons to conduct an election by mail include:
Increases voter participation
Removes barriers that can keep people from getting to the polls
Allows more time for people to study issues and candidates before marking the ballot
Has built-in safeguards that increase the integrity of the elections process
Saves taxpayer dollars
As a registered voter, what do I have to do?
If your registration is current, your ballot packet will automatically be mailed to you. Inside the packet you will find the ballot, a secrecy envelope and a return envelope. Once you vote the ballot, place it in the secrecy envelope and seal it in the pre-addressed return envelope. Be sure to sign the return envelope on the appropriate line. After verifying that the return envelope has your name and current address, simply return the ballot either by mail or at a designated drop site.
When are the ballots mailed to the voters?
In Oregon, ballots will be mailed any time between the 14th and 18th days before an election.
I will be out of town when ballots are mailed. How do I get a ballot?
Absentee ballots are available 45 days before the election. You may request an early absentee ballot from your county election official either in person, by mail, or by fax. You will need to include your name, residence address and, if different, your mailing address.
What if my ballot doesn't come?
If you have not received your ballot within a week after they are mailed, call your county election office. They will check that your voter registration is current. If it is, they will mail you a replacement ballot.
What if I have moved and have not updated my registration?
If you are registered to vote by the 21st day before the election but now have a different address, you may contact the county election office. They will instruct you as to available options.
How do I get information about the candidates and issues?
You will receive a voters' pamphlet from the Secretary of State for all statewide elections. Many counties also produce a local voters' pamphlet which is either included with the state pamphlet or mailed separately. In special elections, the county may include the pamphlet with the ballot.
What if I make a mistake?
If you make a mistake, you may call your county election office and request a replacement ballot. One will be mailed to you provided the request is received with sufficient time for mailing. Otherwise, you may pick up a replacement ballot in person at your county election office.
Your ballot has been cast as soon as you deposit it in the mailbox or at a drop site. After that, you cannot receive a new ballot to re-vote.
Do I have to return my ballot by mail?
You have the choice of mailing your ballot or returning it to any county election office or any designated drop site in the state. The times and locations of drop sites are published by and available from your county election official.
How much postage is required to mail my ballot back?
Your voted ballot can usually be returned without extra postage. In those instances where additional postage is necessary, it will be clearly indicated on the ballot materials.
When must the voted ballot be returned?
The voted ballot must be received in any county election office or designated drop site by 8:00 p.m. on election night. Postmarks do not count.
How do I know if my ballot is received?
You may call your county election office and ask if they received your ballot. A record is kept showing each voter whose ballot has been returned.
Can anyone find out how I've voted once I mail my ballot?
No. All ballots are separated from the return envelope before the ballots are inspected. This process ensures confidentiality.
Will my vote still count if I forget to put my ballot into the secrecy envelope?
Yes, the ballot will still be counted.
Can the public watch the election process?
All steps of the process are open to observation by the public. The major steps include:
Preparation for mailing (about one month before the election).
Ballot reception and signature verification (during the two weeks before the election).
Opening envelopes and preparing ballots to be counted (usually starts 5 days before the election date).
Counting ballots (election day).
When will election results be known?
Ballot counting cannot begin until election day. Initial results are released at 8:00 p.m. election night and will continue to be updated through the evening until all ballots have been counted.
What if I have more questions?
Call your county elections official. Each office will be more than happy to assist you.
Posted by: OR voter on December 20, 2005 07:18 PMWith that said, it seems like this will mask the corruption and flaws as King County rampantly displays (it wasn't rated the 3rd most corrupt county for the 2004 election for nothing). The Federal Government really needs to get their act together and audit King County and places like Oregon that are or will resort to all-mail voting in the future. The US Attorney - McKay is obviously out to lunch and ineffectual.
The other option for those like myself who don't wish to be trapped in a sewer of corruption - to secede and form Cascade County - for further information contact; cascade@cascadecounty.kendra.com.
I would even go as far to say that the future of the WA State Republican Party depends on this !
Every time I hear someone claim that vote-by-mail somehow gives voters "more time" to "study the issues" and "deliberate," I want to scream! You'd think that prior to vote-by-mail the issues and candidates were kept secret until voting day, and we had to wait until we got into the voting booth before we could decide how to vote...
What IS different is that there is no reliable way to verify that a ballot was filled out by the actual voter, or that there was no undue influence exercised. There is nothing to prevent people voting for dead relatives whose names are still on the rolls (which we know happened in 2004). And - with the proposal on the table to allow online registration - there will definitely be no way to ensure that only properly registered voters receive and cast ballots.
And the best argument for throwing away the few safeguards we have left is that vote-by-mail somehow gives voters "more time to study the issues" than before? It doesn't wash.
Posted by: Patrick on December 20, 2005 10:14 PMAlan Scott - Estimating the proportion of fraudulent ballots is extremely difficult because they are seldom detected. (And when detected, seldom publicized. And when publicized, seldom prosecuted.) From decades of following elections, I am certain that at least 1 in 1000 ballots in Washington state are fraudulent and suspect that 1 in 100 or even more may have been in recent elections. That is enough to make the difference in some very close elections, including the governor's race and one of the monorail votes.
rossi too - You seem to believe that in those 32 counties no ballots were rejected because the signatures did not match. A little bit of thought will show you how implausible that idea is. (And a quick search should give you some numbers on rejected ballots in those counties.) A little more thought will show you that the clerks must have approved some signatures they should not have. So there were certainly fraudulent votes in those counties; some of those votes were detected, and some were not.
Bruce - You must not have read my earlier posts on this subject, either here or at my own site. I do, in fact, favor getting rid of mail ballots except where they are absolutely necessary.
so was this reporting, or opinion
Posted by: righton on December 21, 2005 08:06 AM"A little more thought will show you that the clerks must have approved some signatures they should not have. So there were certainly fraudulent votes in those counties; some of those votes were detected, and some were not."
Yes, Jim, they're all out to get you.