The Seattle Monorail Project is engaged in a desperate, full-throttle propaganda campaign for survival. In today's Seattle Times, an op-ed from Kevin Phelps, who was brought on as an "independent financial-policy analyst" to the SMP board in July:
Having played a similar role with Sound Transit, I understood I'd be asking tough questions, pushing for systems and controls to assure financial accountability and working to eliminate lower priority elements of the agency's plan.But documents recently obtained by Monorail watchdog group OnTrack reveal that Phelps is not an "independent financial analyst", but just another spin doctor. See p. 204 in this file of correspondence between Phelps and the SMP. Regarding the August Town Hall meeting:
"Has there been a strategy developed for what SMP hopes to communicate at this meeting? Not to dive too deep, but I think every message coming from the Board/SMP in the next few weeks/months should have a direct purpose to re-establish credibility with the public and the media. I saw a couple of missed opportunities at last Wednesday/s board meeting that from my perspective could have been taken advantage of. I don't want to overstep my purpose for the Board, but would be glad to discuss this with you . . . ."As today's Seattle Times editorial points out:
Phelps is not a lawyer. He is not a budget analyst. His degree from Washington State University was in journalism, and by trade he is a politician.And State Auditor Brian Sonntag isn't impressed with the Monorail board, or its spin on his unenthusiastic report. Posted by Stefan Sharkansky at September 13, 2005 08:47 AM | Email This
WELCOME TO A KEVIN PHELPS FREE TACOMA !
Posted by: TACOMA PHLASH on September 13, 2005 09:07 AMOn Track is not a monorail watchdog group - it's an anti-monorail advocacy group backed by large downtown property owners.
The 6.1% projected annual increase in value of car registrations is lower than the historical average over the last decade or so.
I could not care less whether Phleps qualifies as an "independent financial analyst." What I do care about is finding transportation alternatives
that provide a way to move people from home to work that does not involve paving every square inch of the puget sound region. That's why I support the monorail.
We can't latch onto any half-baked idea that will bankrupt the city just because it's sold as a transportation alternative. Hiring people who are labeled as independent is false advertising. At least On Track makes no bones about where they're coming from. They have nothing to be embarassed about.
Just curious - where does your info come from regarding the historical increase in car tab revenue? My recollection is that the 6.1% projections is higher than historical amounts, but I can't find a source right now.
Source: http://www.monorailontrack.org/documents/Conway_MVET_090805.pdf
Posted by: petec on September 13, 2005 11:10 AMHere's a link that supports a finding that the 6.1% projected increase is conservative by historical standards.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/news/local/links/conway1.pdf
This might be the same analysis that you linked to, but it clearly shows that the historical ratee of increase is much higher than the projected 6.1% rate of increase used by the SMP. Some analysts have argued that the 6.1% is unsustaniable, but it is based on historical data. Projections like this are inherently tricky, but they form the basis of almost all commercial lending transactions. You can always find a professional to offer a counter opinion, but I am comfortable that the 6.1% rate of increase is realistic.
Posted by: bobbie on September 13, 2005 11:18 AMHey Stefan,
I heard a story on KOMO 1000 (sorry, Kirby was playing commercials at the time) that said the monofail got a GLOWING report from the state auditor. Ya mean I can't trust ANY media in this town?????
Mass transit is not for everyone, but it certainly benefits everyone in the form of lower air pollution, less dependance of foreign sources of oil and less demand for highway usuage. It sounds to me like you have no choice but to drive (3.5 miles is way to long to walk to a bus or train stop). So you, of all people, should be supporting mass transit, if for no other reason that the prospect that it will lessen traffic congestion.
PS - If you live in Mill Creek why do you care how much people pay for car tabs in Seattle or whether they build a monorail?
Posted by: bobbie on September 13, 2005 02:29 PMAnd, well... if all the predictions that were made in the past on a lot of things came true...
I cannot believe the faith being placed on these assumptions.
Posted by: Ted Bundy on September 13, 2005 03:04 PMMass transit would be a wonderful thing, but we can't even get the buses right. If we could get the bus system to actually WORK, heck, I might be a little more open to light rail or even the pie-in-the-sky monorail.
But not today...and sadly, probably not in my lifetime.
Posted by: SnoCo Voter on September 13, 2005 03:25 PMMonorail is a waste primarily because it duplicates service in the state's biggest job center and highest rent districts that will already be provided service by light rail - and it will never connect to anything. It can't. Far better to end the duplication and build one rail system that can connect the whole city and the region.
Who is to blame? The legislature (GOP and Democrat) and Governor Locke. They all championed to Monorail's authority and allowed it to proceed before other more important things got done. In case anyone was paying attention, the GOP controlled Senate approved the Monorail authority under the leadership of Jim Horn - who had a huge ax to grind against light rail. Governor Locke compounded the problem by vetoing a provision of law that would have required the Monorail to wait until other more important priorities were fixed (like all of our roads) before going to the ballot for funding.
The legislature can prove in 2006 whether they are adults and capable of fixing all the problems they've caused by ending the authroity they granted the Monorail. They can also demonstrated whether they deserve re-election by either stepping up on transportation (regardless of what happens on I912) to make sure the roads are fixed, or by granting more authority to locals fix the roads while assuring that every gas tax dollar raised here, stays here. If I-912 passes, this region will export roughly $2 billion in gas tax recepts to the rest of the state over the next 10 years - unless Olympia stops the faucet.
Posted by: thor on September 13, 2005 05:04 PMThe man has no credibility. And to call him a capable business man is a stretch.
Posted by: Jericho on September 13, 2005 05:46 PMAlthough it defies logic, I'm sure there are still tens (if not hundreds) of thousands of diehards in Seattle that still dream of a monorail. Let's simply privatize the monorail project and sell shares. Then these diehards can dip into their own savings accounts, take out a second mortgage, borrow from their parents, or whatever it takes to raise the necessary money to get in on the ground floor of what is sure to be the first mass transit project in North America to actually turn a profit.
Just let me off this ship of fools.
Posted by: Ragnar on September 17, 2005 11:32 PMWhat is the background between Joel Horn and light rail?
Posted by: Ragnar on September 17, 2005 11:35 PM