August 16, 2005
Ed Murray Says We Don't Know What We Want

Or at least what we want for transportation policies.   After a muddle of questions on transportation from the Stranger, Murray gave this summary reply:

It doesn't appear that we know what things we want, when we want them, and how we are going to pay for them.  In other words, what I'm hearing is that the city does not prioritize.

And I think he would extend that to the entire state, since he is the chairman of the House Transportation Committee.

I can see why Murray might think that.  Put simply, the voters have been willing to approve of funds for mass transit projects, at least in this area, and re-elect officials who promise to improve mass transit.  But the same voters are unwilling to ride buses or trains in any great numbers.

This may be puzzling but it is not paradoxical.  I can untangle the puzzle with an example.  A few years ago, Lance Dickie of the Seattle Times wrote a column favoring more funds for Sound Transit.   I sent him an email asking whether he planned to ride the trains himself.  He admitted he that he didn't plan to, and got a bit defensive in his reply.  He may have thought I was trying to paint him as a hypocrite.  But actually I was trying to draw his attention to this puzzling fact: We drivers are willing to spend tax money on mass transit projects that we never plan to use.

What many, perhaps most, of us want is simple: We want other people to use mass transit, leaving the roads to us.  That's why so many (including Lance Dickie) are willing to spend tax money on systems they do not intend to use.  This desire may be selfish, but it is not irrational.   The problem is that many of us haven't figured out that we can't get what we want, that those others are hoping that we will take the bus or train and leave the highways to them.  But they won't and we won't.  Neither 19th century trains nor more early 20th century buses can attract enough people away from the highways to make a significant difference in our congestion.  If we aren't willing to ride the buses and trains, there is no point in spending more money on them.  And we aren't.   Recently, I have started counting the riders on the buses I see in downtown Kirkland.  It is rare to see a bus, except at rush hour, with more than five passengers — and I often see buses with no passengers at all.

And this desire to have others take the buses and trains also explains the muddle in our planning.   We aren't trying to design systems for ourselves, but for those other people that we hope will get out of their cars and into the buses and trains.  Since they don't exist — mostly — we find it hard to plan for them.

Some of our political leaders must know this, but few are willing to say it.  (And at least a few know it but plan to increase congestion until we are forced on to the buses and trains for our own good.)  We most likely will stay in this muddle until we, and our political leaders, are willing to face the fact that those others are just like us, and are not going to ride the buses or trains in large numbers.  Until then, we are unlikely to have a coherent transportation policy.

Correction:  Lance Dickie emailed me to say that he regularly commutes by bus.  I am happy to correct the record, though I must say I don't recall getting that impression from his original email.  And I must add that he has not, as far as I know, addressed my central point: Most people in this area are willing to pay for mass transit, but not use it.  I believe that's because we expect other people to take the buses (or the trains) — while they expect us to.  If I am correct in that argument, then mass transit will never do much to reduce congestion in this area, no matter how many buses or trains are provided.

For the post that inspired Dickie to send me that correction, see here.  You'll notice that I think he should write a correction or two of his own.

Posted by Jim Miller at August 16, 2005 05:26 PM | Email This
Comments
1. "Ed Murray Says We Don't Know What We Want"

I would amend this to read:

"Ed Murray says that he hasn't a clue what we want 'cause he won't listen."

There. Now I feel better.

One of the basic problems of the left is that it relies up "the other guy-isms"...the left plays upon our empathy...in this case providing public transportation...with the public blindly assuming that by pouring public funds blindly into the black box of liberalism, that somehow a product will come out the other end that will help others and relieve us of guilt by providing for others a service that we have no intention of using.

The problem is...none of us are "the other guy."

It's the flip side of the pork barrel nipple that apparently very few "entitlees" have the self-restraint to avoid.

Either way, it costs the people that work big time for no discernable positive results.

The left is rife with examples of poorly designed and less-than-legitimate goals for which their proffered solutions have no other function than to waste public funds and confidence.

Posted by: scott158 on August 16, 2005 05:56 PM
2. Well I guess that there are a lot of people in the Sound Transit area that are guilty of voting for something for the public good, and that they have no desire to use themselves. Kind of brings to mind those other people that we all feel sorry for because they don't have the same things we might have! My OH MY aren't we a sorry lot.

Posted by: Bigbird on August 16, 2005 06:27 PM
3. Honest Ed!
The biggest problem for the LEFTIST PINHEADS however is not simply that they do not know what they want. The biggest problem is these LEFTIST PINHEADS do not know that they do not know what they want!!

Posted by: Mr. Cynical on August 16, 2005 07:21 PM
4. To quote Elmer Fudd "Be Vewy Vewr Caewful" what figures they use to asses the public's demand as well. Case in point, I fully expect the ridership numbers on the Tacoma Link Light Rail to be paraded about, to show the public's demand for Light Rail as evidenced by the public's 'embracing' Light Rail. They will show that ridership exceeds projections. Well I can show that the number of people who drive CL55s far exceeds Benz's projections if I do so after reducing the 'price of admisssion' to that club to zero. Does that mean that the public is demanding CL55s en mass? And that Benz should produce more of them than Toyota does their Chrysler unit minivans? No it definately does not. What it shows is absolutely NOTHING regarding how there is an unmet demand for CL55s, it only shows that the public will take Benz up on their offer of free ones. As far as I know there was never any projected ridership on the Tacoma Link Light Rail, much less one that was in the public record prior to them making nefarious use of it. Which I am guessing they will.

Posted by: JDH on August 16, 2005 07:38 PM
5. Let me paraphrase Ed Murray.

We tried to use highway congestion to FORCE people out of their cars and onto mass transit but that has not worked. We have spent our wealth on fixed route mass transit and we really doubt that anyone will want to live in massive apartment blocks along the route to make that work either. Our social engineering schemes have failed, we have squandered our wealth and have not the slightest idea of how to fix the problem while appeasing our environmental extremist base. And to top it off, it looks like the rest of the State is unwilling to pony up the money just to pay for our deferred maintenance.

Posted by: JC Bob on August 16, 2005 07:39 PM
6. Sory, as I know there was never any projected FREE ridership

Posted by: JDH on August 16, 2005 07:40 PM
7. Murray comes off like someone with integrity, who is misguided. He believes what he says, but he has been brainwashed by liberalism.

However, there are a few chinks in his liberal armor, such as realizing that our resources are limited, that the monorail may well be a black hole. He still believes that HOV lanes are beneficial to the public (really, only the socialists who want to engineer us into mass transit). Paralysis by analysis is what he like so many other political types suffer from. They compound errors made 20, 30 and 40 years ago with their short sighted - throwing money at the problem can solve it - without a plan ! Private industry would fire them all for that approach !

Posted by: KS on August 16, 2005 08:47 PM
8. The crux is that everything proposed is proposed in a vacuum. It is viaduct or nothing, how about the benefit of spending a commensurate amount around the State? How would that benefit the State economy as opposed to spending everything in Seattle? That leaves us with a decision that we may prefer to make as opposed to being labled as .... you name it. When is the last time the 'know it alls' gave us all the relevant information? In fact their 'data sources' are funded by us, yet controlled by them. If we want data we have to fund it ourselves and then get it out, thank you very much msm, but both are a tall order.

Posted by: JDH on August 16, 2005 09:18 PM
9. Glad to hear that somebody else is noticing all the empty seats on most bus runs. My wife is geting tired of listening to my head count every time we drive near another near empty bus. The whole concept that we pay for busses to roam around the neighborhoods to pick up a pitifully small number of riders is bizarre. Based on my observations, Community Transit is the worst offendor. Naturally so, since they keep a nice chunk of Snohomish County sales tax money to pay for their waste.

Posted by: zip on August 16, 2005 09:40 PM
10. JCBob--
You are my hero!

Posted by: Mr. Cynical on August 16, 2005 10:28 PM
11. Here's a reach. A half full car is the concept of the car-pool lanes. How about a bus being half full before it gets in the diamond lane?

Posted by: PC on August 16, 2005 10:32 PM
12. Hey, I ride the bus everyday. More people would ride the bus if it wasn't so sub-par. Metro is pathetic. Drivers don't care about riders. They don't care if there on time or not because they don't get into any trouble.

Let me tell a story: I was waiting for the 174(ugh) bus. It was the last one for a few hours. I was waiting at the federal way park and ride. I started waiting 20 minutes before the bus was scheduled to leave. The Bus was at the P&R already. The time came for it to leave the bus didn't come. 5 minutes later still parked. 10 minutes later still parked. 15 minutes after ti was supposed to start its route the bus finially picks everyone up. were 15 minuter late and it is the first stop. Well we come to a 7-11 store. the driver gets out of the bus, goes into the store, spends about 10 minutes buying food. we get going again. The driver stops TWICE to chat with hookers along Pac Highway. Well I got out at Pac and Kent-DesMoines Road. I called and complained and nothing happened to the driver. Metro has no accountabality. None. This is just one incident. I could tell dozens more.

When the buses get better people will ride.

Before anyone asks. I take the bus because My eyes are so bad I can;t drive.

Posted by: renndawg on August 16, 2005 10:33 PM
13. Another point: It's probably not one-to-one, car-to-person coming off the road for the few folks that you do find on the bus. Lots of them ride the bus becuase they don't have a car in the first place. So my tax money is subsidizing their ride (or warm nap) across town. Wonder what it would cost a person to ride if the busses were forced to break even?

Posted by: mikela on August 16, 2005 11:11 PM
14. We know what we want, they just aren't listening.

How about some accountability, transparency, honesty, integrity, compliance with the law, and a fair election.

Posted by: dl on August 17, 2005 01:21 AM
15. renndawg - Thank you for your account. I think it shows who the buses are being run for -- and it isn't the riders.

That said, I don't want to eliminate buses for people like you. I want to replace them with something that meets your needs better. In some cases, I think we would better off if we replaced buses with van pools that can pick people up at their houses. We might be able to both improve service and cut costs by that kind of switch. (And maybe move a few people off the highways.)

Buses may make sense at rush hours or for game traffic and similar events.


zip - Thanks for that report from Snohomish. I have been wondering whether the empty buses I see almost every day can be found elsewhere.

Posted by: Jim Miller on August 17, 2005 05:48 AM
16. Before I had a car, I used to take the bus from Fremont to Kirkland. It would take me at least 45 minutes, often times more. Now I drive, and it usually takes 25-30 minutes, and very rarely it takes longer, like 40-45 minutes. It's really sad that it takes longer to use mass transit that it does to sit in traffic across the 520. Until mass transit is more efficient, and at least as convenient, than driving, people will continue to choose driving over riding.

Posted by: Mason Kidd on August 17, 2005 08:53 AM
17. Another reason why busses are so empty:
- It costs just about as much to ride a bus as to drive. I used to commute from Puyallup to Seattle, and rode a bus - it would cost about $3.00 to get to Seattle and took 2 hours. If I drove it cost $4.00 in gas and it took 1 hour. If my time is worth say $20 - $30 hr, then taking the bus cost me $40 - 60/day.

Now, I know probably not alot of people commute from Puyallup to Seattle, but anyone who commutes from outlying areas probably would have a similar experience.

Posted by: JustSumGuy on August 17, 2005 09:02 AM
18. Transportation policy hasn't worked for quite a while. Most folks are just now waking up to that fact.

I wish I has a dollar for every time I've heard...

"We know we can't build our way out of this,"

"We've tried to build our way out of this, and it hasn't worked."

"If we build more roads people will just drive more"

"It's time we move toward a more balanced system, with more emphasis on 'alternatives' to one person driving a behemoth SUV down the road."

Guess what...all of these are demonstrably untrue. A highway system can't work if it's run by people who are hostile to highways. That's why we have the problems we do.

Posted by: South County on August 17, 2005 09:07 AM
19. The problem is that the Seattle area hasn't reached the critical mass to require mass transit. The greater problem is that it almost surely will. Mass transit will never be as convenient as a personal car with an adequate road and parking infrastructure. At some point however, when the cost of using space for parking becomes unacceptably high, and the available space for new roads is gone, the convenience of cars will decrease as traffic backs up and parking is either so expensive or simply unavailable or so inconvenient that it becomes more convenient to park at the park and ride and take the bus or train into the city.

Perhaps it is commendable to have the "foresight" to realize the "need" for and benefit of mass transit before it is really needed. More likely, and much more importantly, it is not commendable to focus our efforts and funding on underutilized mass transit such that we fail to provide the road infrastructure that can provide the more convenient and more beneficial transportation and commerce we need right now.

Posted by: alaskaboy on August 17, 2005 09:20 AM
20. 'It costs just about as much to ride a bus as to drive' Not True. It costs > an extra hour and a half/day to take Sounder. At that's > $50/day when I ride Sounder.

Posted by: JDH on August 17, 2005 09:29 AM
21. Sound Transit Success Story
How rare this must be, but it is true. I take a bus every day from a park & ride to downtown Bellevue. I save on gas (more than enough to pay for the monthy pass) and maintence (7500 fewer miles on my car per year), can sleep or read (or both), and don't have to pay anything to park my car. I can park two days a month for free where I work in downtown Bellevue if I need to drive, and it just takes about an extra 10 minutes over the time it takes to drive. Pretty much the time it takes to get off the freeway and find a spot to park. The bus is always clean, and on-time a very high percentage of the time. Really. And "Have to catch my bus" is a great way to have control over you work schedule. Knowing when you have to leave is a terrific incentive to get done and get out the door.

Posted by: duhh on August 17, 2005 02:06 PM
22. Their "solution" can be found in your last point. In fact, they have already started. Roads will not be expanded and will be left in ill repair under the fake excuse that more money is needed. Then, when they get more money, they throw it at rail projects. Eventually, unless you are will to wait in traffic for 3 hours to get from the Eastside to Seattle, your only option will be mass transit.

This is an old East Coast strategy. Washington DC did that, for example. It would be nice if Seattle sought its own path instead of emmulating the old models of the dead cities of the East Coast, but somehow they see those cities as a "model" for Seattle to follow.

Unfortunate.

Posted by: BananaLand (aka Iguana) on August 17, 2005 03:49 PM
23. Hello again,
I am the first to admit that we need mass transit. But the problen is that mass transit in not accountable to the citizens. When drivers face little or no disapline for not properly doing there jobs there is a problem. A driver is more likely to gat in trouble for being 3 minutes once early then 30 minutes every time they drive. Yes, there are drivers like that. I would love someone, ANYONE to challenge what I said. The odds are they don't ride the bus, or if they do its only downtown or so infrequent that they don't get the true feel. I ride the bus at least 10 times a week. Usuially more. So I know of what I speak.

Posted by: RennDawg on August 17, 2005 10:30 PM
24. Renndawg: Solution: PRIVITIATION/ACCOUNTABILITY?DEREGULATION, which is not available in the public sector.

Ed Murray: Get a life, a real job, and actually talk to real people.

WSDOT: Jump off the Narrows Bridge-from the HOV lane

Posted by: THS on August 18, 2005 06:07 PM
25. Renndawg: Solution: PRIVITIATION/ACCOUNTABILITY?DEREGULATION, which is not available in the public sector.

Ed Murray: Get a life, a real job, and actually talk to real people.

WSDOT: Jump off the Narrows Bridge-from the HOV lane

Posted by: THS on August 18, 2005 06:07 PM
26. Yea right Ed! Seems to me it's you who doesn't seem to know what we want.Gee, maybe if you would uncork your ears and listen you would learn a thing or two!!

Posted by: Laurie on August 18, 2005 08:33 PM
27. Mass transit solutions

1. Get rid of the ride-free zone. make everyone pay when they get on. no more deadbeats.

2. Enforce the schedule. make the drivers be on time.

3. Enforce the code of conduct.

simple stuff

Posted by: renndawg on August 21, 2005 03:11 AM
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