While everybody's fixated on an estimated total cost of $11 billion for the Monorail, bear in mind that this is the best-case scenario. It assumes that car tab revenues will grow 6.1% a year, which is highly optimistic. Even the droolingly optimistic fantasists at Sound Transit project 4.8% growth in the vehicle tax base. A difference of 1.3% might not sound like a lot, but do the math. When compounded over 50 years, a 4.8% growth rate produces less than 2/3 the total revenue of a 6.1% rate. So under a more realistic forecast, the tax would be collected for years longer and with billions more in total debt service than in the more fantastic forecast that is being widely reported.
The latest Seattle Weekly (not so weak this week) pegs the total cost at $14 billion, citing a recent analysis from OnTrack.
The other assumption that the Conorail is making is that the system will break even from operations and that it won't run a deficit or require any additional taxpayer subsidies. If you believe that one, then you'd probably let me sell you another hole for your head.
Posted by Stefan Sharkansky at June 29, 2005 03:24 PM | Email ThisNonorail. Just say no.
If any public works project every had a bigger don't do it sign hanging on it I haven't seen it. Yet folks who are not guests at Western State are still pushing it.
Argghh!
Posted by: JCM on June 29, 2005 03:35 PMI think, though, that the tunnel idea is just about on the same level. Seattle city government members obviously don't get out much. Must not have heard of Boston's Big Dig ... tens of billions over budget, more than a deacade behind schedule, and the finished product leaks and drops chunks of concrete on commuters ... and Boston isn't even in a seismic high risk area!
Posted by: Norman MacLeod on June 29, 2005 03:43 PMThis is government out of control. If a voter approved project changes in scope by more than 10% in time, cost or deliverables, the project should automatically go back to the voters for approval.
People work hard for their money. When a project is approved, voters do it based on what they think they can tolerate in tax burden. When the project cost doubles (or worse), the voters no longer perceive a tolerable level of taxation exists and they then look for ways to reduce the tax burden - all because the government is CARELESS with OUR money.
Posted by: SouthernRoots on June 29, 2005 03:48 PMYou are not paying attention. They (liberals) recognize no limitations to taxation.
We have seen that they accept the idea of votes from dead and imaginary people, and
Governursemama (actually ober alles nurse mama) Gregoire is riven asunder with angst about our non-existent drought.
What makes you believe they will not impute license tabs for defunct and non-existent motor vehicles?
Shame on you -- please don't do that again!
Posted by: Amused by liberals on June 29, 2005 04:21 PMIt seems that too much focus is on the cars. Perhaps a whole new slate of taxes should be created:
Driveway square footage tax
Garage tax
Carport tax
Parking lot tax
Transit access tax
Long distance transit tax
Commute tax
Breathing Seattle air surcharge tax
Seattle view of the sunset over the Olympics tax
Scenic route tax for the viaduct
Sidewalk commute tax
Crosswalk toll booths
Sorry for giving too many other ideas, I guess there is lots more room for silliness in Seattle...
Posted by: SouthernRoots on June 29, 2005 04:46 PMHoly cow, it sounds like the total price just went from 11 billion to 14 billion in just a week. Wonder what the price tag will be two years from now?
They wouldn’t lie to us would they?
It's not the worst-case, either, but it's much closer to that end of the spectrum.
The 6.1% figure is actually the MID-range of the forecast that was conducted for the monorail agency, regardless of the figure Sound Transit is using.
The $11B financing plan also makes the following assumptions:
Tax evasion will not be reduced any further.
Contingency funds and reserves will be spent.
The agency will have to pay for all utility relocations.
The agency will have to pay all state sales tax. (Note that the Tacoma Narrows Bridge project just had their tax waived, much to the benefit of both the project and taxpayers.)
The agency will not collect any more than 1.4% MVET. (Some folks are calling to raise the tax.)
The agency will not receive funds from other sources. (Some folks are suggesting that a portion of Viaduct mitigation funds could be used to purchase one or more trains since they would clearly pick up some of the people displaced from the Viaduct.)
In short, there are plenty of more favorable assumptions that could be made to reduce that $11B number, but that is a figure more accurately representing the true risks on this Project.
Posted by: FoM Prez on June 29, 2005 05:35 PMwho are you? why don't you sign your real name?
where does your organization get its money from?
Die, die, die .....
Posted by: BananaLand(aka Iguana) on June 29, 2005 07:51 PMNo worries, there's never been a problem with a bond default in Washington. Investors won't be scared off and they'll just snap up the bonds.
Whoops.
No worries, there's never been a problem with a bond default in Washington. Investors won't be scared off and they'll just snap up the bonds.
Whoops.
If everyone in Seattle rides buses, light rail and monorail, they would probably sell their cars and then who will pay the tax? It is a very bad assumption to think that the car tab tax will keep going up.
The more cigarettes are taxed, the more the sales of cigarettes go down. At least that's what the health nuts who keep passing taxes on cigarettes say! I think it's probably true too, Washington State certainly isn't getting any more taxes on cigarettes or gasoline from me!
I'm on a tax strike against the state and I plan on depriving the state of at least 2000 bucks this year in taxes.
The monorail is insanity and the voters will take vengenance at the polls.........
Posted by: sgmmac on June 30, 2005 03:53 AMAs for asking where we get our money from, we DON'T get any money from anywhere.
Unlike some other organizations in this city claiming to represent "concerned citizens," we don't have an office and we don't have a top-notch PR firm on our payroll. We have a small bank account with probably less than $200 in it right now. We're all a bunch of citizens who struggle to find some time to be active when we're not at our regular day jobs.
Posted by: FoM Prez on June 30, 2005 11:32 AMLIBERALS: a bunch of citizens who struggle to find some time to be active
Want to be useful? Take up knitting or needle-point.
Posted by: Amused by liberals on June 30, 2005 12:17 PMWhat a "crazy" concept!
Posted by: FoM Prez on June 30, 2005 01:22 PMThe only crazy concept I see here is the no-norail. Half-baked and hackneyed, the stench has reached street level.
Incapable of meeting the requirements on any standard, the "leadership" is foundering (deservedly so), and the citizens who were duped into advancing this sham are getting an eyeful of what boondoggle looks like up close and personal.
Ask anyone who has opened their license renewal form!
You are promoting an albatross - how is that "improve(ing) our communities"?
Posted by: alphabet soup on July 3, 2005 10:17 AM