June 10, 2005
Pyrrhic Victory

Even after Monday's ruling which rebuffed the election challenge, a growing number of Washington voters believe that Dino Rossi was the legitimate winner of the November election. So says the Strategic Vision poll of Washington voters, taken subsequent to Monday's ruling and released today.

The poll asked respondents now that the court has upheld Christine Gregoire’s victory and Dino Rossi has conceded the election, who they believe actually won the gubernatorial election; 59% said Republican Dino Rossi; 34% said Democrat Christine Gregoire; and 7% were undecided with a margin of error of ±3%. When asked if they approved of the court’s decision that upheld Gergoire’s victory, 40% approved of the decision, 43% disapproved of the decision, and 17% were undecided. When asked about a potential rematch between Rossi and Gregoire in 2008, the poll found that 58% would support Rossi; 36% would support Gregoire; and 6% were undecided.
The numbers are even more favorable to Rossi than those of the earlier poll taken just before the trial.

As I wrote on the first day of the trial, there were actually two simultaneous trials going on: A legal trial and a political trial. Gregoire prevailed in the legal trial. Rossi won the political trial. I think Gregoire and the Democrats will be surprised to discover that a legal victory without a political victory isn't worth nearly as much as they would like it be worth.

Posted by Stefan Sharkansky at June 10, 2005 02:37 PM | Email This
Comments
1. let's see JDB try to spin this...

Posted by: manco on June 10, 2005 02:43 PM
2. Indeed. A judges ruling that an outhouse doesn't stink doesn't deoderize the outhouse.

Posted by: Dogbert on June 10, 2005 02:50 PM
3. Queen Christine will never amount to anything more than what she is now... a mediocre governor whose first acts as governor were to backpedal on her campaign promises. She was s very poor candidate then, and she's a disaster for the state now. With the votes that Cantwell and Murray received "the queen" should have easily won by at least 150,000 votes.

Posted by: Tucker on June 10, 2005 03:07 PM
4. You know, I'm now actually glad it turned out this way. This state has been suffering under a Democrat nightmare for a long time, and the pressure has been building.

This has only increased the pressure and when it finds it's release in 2006 & 2008, the Democrats, in their ignorant bliss, won't have even seen the landslide that will wipe the out, coming.

Posted by: Jeff B. on June 10, 2005 03:10 PM
5. Are you serious? Strategic Visions. That outfit put the hack in hacktacular. I don't think I've ever seen one of their polls that didn't skew Republican. If you want to say Gregoire isn't all that popular, I'd say that's more than obvious. But citing Republican Visions doesn't prove anything.

Posted by: stan on June 10, 2005 03:33 PM
6. If you say so, Stan.

Their poll did show continuing support for other Democrats, though (even Patty "OBL built schools" Murray!).

Posted by: Bostonian on June 10, 2005 03:44 PM
7. stan:

Let me guess, you're going to tell us Gregoire got a mandate to be governor via an election process that should be a model for the US & the banking industry, right?

But a random poll of 800 voters in the state is a "hack job"? Try and read the questions (get some help with the big words) and tell us how they are spin?

Notice the pure, blatant republican lies in these questions and results:

"Voters gave Senator Patty Murray strong approval ratings. Fifty-five percent approved of her job
performance; 35% disapproved; and 10% were undecided.

Senator Maria Cantwell received lower
approval ratings, with 48% approving of her job performance; 40% disapproving; and 12% were
undecided.

President Bush’s job approval was at 40%; with 51% disapproving; and 9% undecided."

(Actually, even I question who they polled if Patty Murray gets a 55% approval rating. I guess it does pay to do nothing)

Yes, and 59% of these very same people still believe Rossi legitimately got the most votes (as distinguished from "winning".)

Clearly, it's just a hack job and these people are idiots.

rb

Posted by: rb on June 10, 2005 03:46 PM
8. what's disappointing about that poll is only Rossi is beating Cantwell. Is he a magic Republican that WA moderates accept but can't vote for any other Republican? I just don't get it.

Posted by: manco on June 10, 2005 03:47 PM
9. sorry,

"59% of these very same people still believe Rossi legitimately got the most votes (as distinguished from "winning".)

should read:

"59% of these very same people still believe Rossi received the most legitimate votes (as distinguished from "winning")

Posted by: rb on June 10, 2005 03:48 PM
10. I beleive STrategic Vision was the most accurate of all the polling firms in calling the Presidential Election.

Posted by: dave on June 10, 2005 03:49 PM
11. it just goes to show, no matter what reality says, leftist trolls will spin it another way...

Posted by: manco on June 10, 2005 03:50 PM
12. Jeff B got me thinking. First off I'm sorry Rossilost in court. But not only did he prevail in the court of public opinion (registered and LEGAL voters) but garnered much political capital.
But what about the negative political capital? We all see Gregoire as a lame duck... what about the other political wymen in office: Murray and Cantwell? Remember that Gregoire was packaged as being another great woman in their mold. I know Murray and Cantwell started avoiding the Pretender Gov. That indicates that there is a connection in voter's minds! I don't mean to sound sexist but Gregoire's tax-and-spend preformance is going to rub off on them if only to cause them to be challenged with more than softball questions when they next run.

Posted by: Victor on June 10, 2005 04:05 PM
13. Victor - Dream on. There is something mystical about the U.S. senate, that defies all rational analysis. I remember when McGovern couldn't carry South Dakota in 1972, and then was later reelected to the senate! I think that also happened with another donk (Mondale?). Murrays' popularity baffles me. I will make no predictions. But Cantwell does seem vulnerable.

Posted by: Dogbert on June 10, 2005 04:16 PM
14. My reaction is based on what I saw in the '04 campaign. When their polls and I think Survey USA where the only ones showing Kerry losing Oregon. Some of their other state by state polling was off badly. I haven't seen the full internals on this poll. It's that they have no credibility with me. I may be wrong, but aren't some of the principals in Strategic Visions Republicans? Nothing wrong with partisan polls, but you discount accordingly. For example, Opinion Dynamics, a blantantly Repub. outfit, but has a proven track record of being pretty accurate(00' and 04' general elections).

Posted by: stan on June 10, 2005 04:25 PM
15. Manco: "Is he a magic Republican that WA moderates accept but can't vote for any other Republican?"

I think he's a magic Republican that moderate Democrats will vote for. He called them "Dinocrats."

Posted by: Shannon K on June 10, 2005 04:26 PM
16. Dogbert--
Point taken. One can wish. I'll agree at puzzlement about Murray. Same goes for McDermott and Norm Dicks. Split King County and we might see a difference. At times I'm afraid the only way to crack Murray is if we proved her tennis shoes were made by WASP's!

Posted by: Victory on June 10, 2005 04:37 PM
17. Shannon:

thanks for rephrasing my post.

Posted by: manco on June 10, 2005 05:21 PM
18. IMO this is post-ruling sympathy and a reaction to Rossi throwing in the towel. Remember the bump after the fraudulent election "recount" that gave the bogus victory to Fraudoire in the first place. This will fade pretty fast. The race is 3 1/2 years off and Fraudoire will have that long to fix things up with the sheeple. It's pretty useless to be polling now and projecting the results out over three years. In politics, 3 1/2 years is like geologic time.

Posted by: Interested Observer on June 10, 2005 06:39 PM
19. It's worth enough to give them four years to raise gas taxes and divert that money to their screwed up social engineering programs.

Posted by: BananaLand(aka Iguana) on June 10, 2005 06:52 PM
20. Reality Check Time - do you honestly think that 60% of the population of Washington supports a Republican over a Democrat - after an election where roughly 50% sided with each side. Something's wrong with this poll.

Posted by: ralph on June 10, 2005 08:07 PM
21. "The race is 3 1/2 years off and Fraudoire will have that long to fix things up with the sheeple."

IO -
I'm not so sure about that...

Most people relate the purpose of the election contest with funny business in King County. They know the bulk of the voting problems occurred there! (again)...

Ron Sims, as the King County Executive, is up for re-election this year. His campaign alone will keep the wounds open! He will lose his race to a Republican. Once that person is in the KC Exec seat - he will be able to make the appropriate corrections to the election department and possibly expose issues that weren't even covered in the contest!
He will have 3.5 years to work on it!

Posted by: Deborah on June 10, 2005 08:08 PM
22. Ralph - I think that validates this poll. People have a sense of fairness and inherently know when someone has been screwed. You would have to be a dead voter in Washington not to see this reaction to the election contest is based on people feeling Rossi was screwed. I guess someone was paying attention to the "no evidence" evidence presented by the Republicans.

Posted by: Marc on June 10, 2005 08:57 PM
23. Ralph says... Reality Check Time - do you honestly think that 60% of the population of Washington supports a Republican over a Democrat - after an election where roughly 50% sided with each side. Something's wrong with this poll.

No, Ralph. Something's wrong with your thinking. Try to imagine a large number of Democrats with the ability to look at a situation and apply reason. Though they may have voted for Gregoire, they can still think "crap, there was some true abuse of our election system in this state" and not be happy with it. They may EVEN be willing to entertain the idea that 1600+ illegal votes (and those being only the ones being contested - likely there were many more) with a 129-vote margin means that no one in this state knows who won for sure. Add that to the first two machine counts and, yes, even they may have their doubts.

Posted by: Ken on June 10, 2005 10:42 PM
24. Victor / Dogbert,

My sense is that Murray is in some kind of protected zone of her own. I can't understand it either, but she's in that magic Senate zone and just keeps getting elected over and over like Ted Kennedy.

Cantwell on the other hand is a) now linked with suspicion of KCE. (Did Gorton really win?) And b) linked often in the press with a possible Rossi run for Senate. That connection, along with the negativity surrounding Real Audio, her perceived (or real!) lack of qualifications for the job, and some of her Howard Dean like foot-in-the-mouths of late. She's definitely vulnerable.

Gregoire is cooked. Whether she's anything real behind that Grinch like face is now moot:

a) She's linked with having been given a title, she probably did not deserve.
b) She's done a horrible job with campaign promises and raised taxes in a careless and disrespectful way.
c) Most hurtful, she has almost no sense of timing, delivery, charisma or anything really likeable about her from an outward standpoint. She's got that insulated, haughtiness that only someone with true disdain for the electorate can have. It's really amazing that she got the votes she did.

She's going to be remembered as the Accidental Governor.

Posted by: Jeff B. on June 10, 2005 11:20 PM
25. Stan, if you have an issue with that poll, why don't you provide a link to one that you think is OK? I'm sure there must be tons of them; I mean it's not like the MSM would only measure things when they expect it to favor the left.

Posted by: RookieRick on June 11, 2005 08:29 AM
26. I just can't believe the reality of this state:

Liberal Democrat governor
2 Liberal Democrat senators
liberal democrat state senate
liberal democrat state house
liberal democrat King county executive

is that truly representative of this state? As a conservative Repubican, I feel like a victim.

Posted by: Manco_Dollars on June 11, 2005 11:13 AM
27. "Cantwell on the other hand is a) now linked with suspicion of KCE. (Did Gorton really win?) And b) linked often in the press with a possible Rossi run for Senate."

Regarding point b), I really don't understand why we keeping beating this dead horse. I see it so often on blogs and conservative websites, this "Senator Rossi" crap. We've have to get it through our thick heads once and for all that Rossi isn't going to be in the Senate. Why? Because he has said so. We have to honor the man's word.

The same goes for this King Co. Executive lead balloon. The last thing Rossi should do is accept some third-rate consolation prize that he has little chance of winning anyway. It is my understanding that this was suggested by, of all people, Sam Reed. Probably the LAST person Rossi should be getting political advice from is Sam Reed, after what Reed did (or didn't do) to (for) Rossi in the governor's race. Rossi better watch his back around Reed, the guy seems to be looking for a chance to twist the knife he stuck in there.

Probably a re-run in 2008 against Fraudoire is the best fit for Rossi as a candidate, but I think he is going to be a very heavy underdog in that race as well. Why? Well, as I noted before, Fraudoire will have a full term to fix things up with the 'Rats in WA state who were, for whatever reason, reluctant to support her in the last race. Second, the dynamic is totally different. Rossi will be facing an incumbent Fraudoire, and that is a big advantage. The '04 race was for an open seat, which will not be the case in '08. As much as I think the Republicans will wave the bloody shirt from the '04 robbery, I don't think it will be enough to offset the natural advantage an incumbent has.

Anyway, it's a ways off yet.

Posted by: Interested Observer on June 11, 2005 11:56 AM
28. monco_dollars

I think it's all that starbucks coffee the wet siders drink that makes them vote blindly for democrats.
Over here on the dry side we vote for Republicans all the time. There just aren't enough of us to balance the others out.
Sigh ;)

Posted by: catnik on June 11, 2005 02:46 PM
29. "I think Gregoire and the Democrats will be surprised to discover that a legal victory without a political victory isn't worth nearly as much as they would like it be worth."

It is worth at least 3.5 more years as Governor, and not having to wait 3.5 years for another chance.

As for those polls, they're hardly a reliable source.

Posted by: Daniel K on June 11, 2005 02:54 PM
30. I just can't believe the reality of this state:

Liberal Democrat governor
2 Liberal Democrat senators
liberal democrat state senate
liberal democrat state house
liberal democrat King county executive

is that truly representative of this state?
As a conservative Repubican, I feel like a victim.

Posted by Manco_Dollars at June 11, 2005 11:13AM

Manco, you missed a true opportunity today by not attending the King County Republican Convention - it was grass roots Conservatism at its BEST and there were NO victims in attendance!

The first joy was parking amongst other cars with CONSERVATIVE BUMPER STICKERS and not having to worry about being "keyed" as has been threatened by our less civil left pals.

The second was the upbeat personality of the convention itself - what a great group of dedicated and determined conservatives led and spoken to by both Kirby Wilbur and Mike Siegal.

Third was a surprise speech by Dino Rossi who was there to officially nominate David Irons for King Couny Executive. I am so impressed by both gentlemen and how lucky we are to be able to claim them as ours!

Fourth was the number of young people in attendance, smiling, enthusiastic and working hard.

This was my first convention and it was a terrific experience.

Please, please, please all, get out and campaign for your candidates, for the initiatives that remind the libs in power that they work for US and to spread the word that we are here and we WILL make a change for the better in King County and in Washington.

Posted by: Cheryl on June 11, 2005 05:51 PM
31. Interested Observer, you state that Guvner Gurgoyles will have 3 1/2 years to make her constituency forget her misdeeds. How can she do this unless she makes these "past" transgressions?
One tactic for sure would be to hit us upside the head with every imaginable tax increase and social experiment under the sun within the 1st year or two, then let up, and maybe even offer a tax cut during her last year. Of course, her tax cut would never really be implemented, any more than the 1,000 middle managers she was going to can, or the tax loopholes she was going to close. She just says it, gets the Pravda Imitators and other state run rags to repeat it enough times that everyone thinks it really happened!
Still, though, I don't see it happening. Look at that face. She's a junkie. A hopeless, in your face, gonna get her fix right in the middle of the sidewalk addict, and there is no way in hell that she will ever slow down until the day they cart her off. She simply doesn't have the dicipline to pull it off.
She is a very definately a lame and horrifyingly ugly duck.

Posted by: 4woodenboats on June 11, 2005 11:40 PM
32. The poll reinforces my gut feeling that there may be a third-party movement based on the rejection of the old, tired partisan politics that has been pulling the country down. The poll shows a disgust with both parties. Election reform, immigration, and drug policy will be brought together by the War on Terror. When that happens, neither political party will see the Tsunami coming. The tipping point will be the next big attack on US soil.

Posted by: richard higgs on June 12, 2005 01:28 AM
33. The poll reinforces my gut feeling that there may be a third-party movement based on the rejection of the old, tired partisan politics that has been pulling the country down.

I hope you are right Richard Higgs.

But, I think that there are other, better reasons for the possibilities of a third party: there is nobody representing the interests of men and fathers - half the population.

Democrats make a living outright attacking men. The liberty of an islamic terrorist means more to the average Democrats than the liberty of a man or a father.

Meanwhile, Republicans run from these issues in fear of radical feminist groups. But, men vote for Republicans by large percentages.

Men and especially fathers are figuring out that there is nobody representing their interests and, in fact, several parts of government that are attacking them.

Once that reaches critical mass, unless Republicans grow some gonads, these men and fathers are going to defect. And, it ain't gonna be the Democrats that get their votes.

Posted by: BananaLand(aka Iguana) on June 12, 2005 11:16 AM
34. Hope springs eternal. A parallel push for a new county (Cascade) should be made along with a push for a man of integrity - Dave Irons, instead of a corrupt Ron Sims, who was once a man of God, but was swallowed up by the stinking Democrat machine and now is the head of the rotting fish that needs to be ousted !

I believe that Strategic visions poll says it all.
Let the leftists gloat and expose their selfishness for all of us to witness after maintaining the nightmare in Olympia. Change has to be fought for and does not come easy. The Repubs have to move on from their reputation as the "stupid party", and expose the Democrats for the "sneaky party" con-artists that they generally are. There are always exceptions to these classifications, but Conservatives in this state need not feel like victims with our current makeup of government. I-900 and I-912 will force the business as usual bunch to look more for the good of the people if they pass, because the people will have spoken. Also, voting these leftist bums who have their own selfish and special interests at heart will help this state become more friendly for all.

Posted by: KS on June 12, 2005 01:38 PM
35. CORRECTION:
Also, voting OUT these leftist bums who have their own selfish and special interests at heart will help this state become more friendly for all.

Posted by: KS on June 12, 2005 01:40 PM
36. Manco:

No need for spin, even though SV is a notorious GOP polling firm, I don't doubt that given people's sympathy for a person that just got his ass handed to him in court, and the fact that the entire GOP lawsuit was a PR campaign of misinformation that Rossi would have a better standing than Govenor Gregoire.

But given that the King County Republican's can't even run an election with less than 500 people, and had an error rate 20x as great as King County Elections, plus the GOP is already starting to turn on itself, I really doubt that a snap poll today matters in the long run.

Cheryl:

You forgot the thrill of an election run so badly it made King County look like they knew what they were doing.

Posted by: jdb on June 12, 2005 08:08 PM
37. JDB - you have become a master propagandist. Not a shred of credibility though behind your rhetoric.

Posted by: KS on June 12, 2005 09:04 PM
38. KS:

And yet everything I say is true. That must just drive you nuts.

Posted by: jdb on June 12, 2005 09:34 PM
39. 4woodenboats, I agree that Fraudoire will have to walk a tightrope for the next 3 1/2 years. There will have to be something to appeal to the half of the WA state electorate who voted for change in Olympia, but enough appeal to the radical liberal base to keep that intact. But incumbency gives you the tools to do that. What will those be? Probably things like tax increases to pay for social programs (maybe something like free abortions on demand), couching them in typical liberal terms like "making the rich pay their fair share", and shaking down "eeevillll corporations" for more money. That will solidify the radical liberal base. Then appeal to the "moderates" with things like infrastructure improvements (gas tax, anyone?) and an election year proposal for some minor form of tax rebates that the media will trumpet as the Second Coming. Probably enough to carve out a 5-7 point win over Rossi in a rematch (which is often how political rematches go, when the loser takes on the incumbent).

On your other point, I agree that Fraudoire is probably one of the ugliest old croakers to come down the pike in a long time. I understand one of the WA Senators, Patty Murray, is often selected as the Senator least likely to be confused with a rocket scientist (i.e., dumb as a box of rocks). Fraudoire would probably win the contest as the politican least likely to be confused with Jessica Simpson.

Posted by: Interested Observer on June 13, 2005 06:13 AM
40. There isn't a shred of evidence that this "governor" will do anything except what's in the best interest of her big campaign donators. She won't walk a tightrope at all - she's already governed like someone who got a 60% mandate. And I expect that will continue for at least 3 more years (she'll take the last half a year off to tout her "accomplishments" for reelection).

This legislature and state government is full of arrogance and has nothing but contempt for the people they supposedly govern. Our best hope is direct democracy which thank goodness this state has despite efforts from the left to get rid of it.

Posted by: Palouse on June 13, 2005 02:30 PM
41. That's it. The state Dem party's gonna kick her to the curb in '08 and get somebody else. I hope I'm wrong, but we've seen it before from these people.

Posted by: Michele on June 13, 2005 03:15 PM
42. We just consider the source jdb and laugh...

Posted by: KS on June 13, 2005 04:33 PM
43. Michele - That's obvious. Her political career is over. But who will run against Dino in '08? I hope it's Simms, I hope it's Simms, I hope it's Simms.....

Posted by: Dogbert on June 13, 2005 06:35 PM
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