March 23, 2005
Absentee Ballot Mystery Deepens
More numbers released by King County Elections that don't add up. This is yet another indication that the discrepancy of 780 more absentee ballots counted than absentee voters may well be attributable to bogus ballots and also that King County might be cooking the books.
The only thing that can clear this up is the Absentee Ballot Audit Trail that King County was supposed to have created but hasn't released yet.
A lot of numbers follow, but for those who are interested in the details, bear with me --
As I mentioned earlier today, the last "Absentee Ballot Return Statistics" page shows that 566,291 absentee ballots had been returned by Nov. 15 (or Nov. 16, or Nov. 18, it's not clear). This is 2,042 short of the 568,333 reported to the canvassing board in the Mail Ballot Report.
I downloaded the legislative district files from the Absentee Ballot Return Statistics page and cross-checked them against the voter database. The numbers on the web page table don't quite match the numbers in the files. e.g. The 43rd district file contains 41,155 voter ids, not 41,115. More significantly, the 32nd district file is missing, what's there is a file of records from the 31st district. I can work around this.
Of the 531,263 voter ids outside of the 32nd district, I get the following matches:
528,923 voters credited absentee in the voter database;
2,215 voters not credited
91 voters credited provisional
34 voters not found in the voter database
Of the 564,206 voters in the voter database credited with voting, I get the following matches:
528,923 are listed in the new absentee voter id files
34,924 voters credited from the 32nd district not found in the new files
359 voters credited from outside the 32nd district not found in the new files
The fact that there are 359 voters who weren't yet credited suggests that there are really were still some more ballots left to be counted when these files were produced. The outstanding voters appear to have an unusually high number of overseas voters, which would be consistent with the assumption that the uncounted ballots are late arrivals. The proportional amount for the 32nd district would be 20, so let's estimate the outstanding number of soon-to-be-arriving valid ballots at 379.
The total number of rejected ballots as of the first certified count, according to the Mail Ballot Report was 4,111. But this would have included the 566 "Larry Phillips" No-signature ballots which were initially rejected but later accepted. All of these were in the list of voter ids that I downloaded and they were all credited by the time the voter database was generated, so the we can subtract the 566 from the 4,111 to get 3,545 ballots that would ultimately be rejected.
That means that of the 2,042 ballots that would have to be counted (to get from 566,291 to the 568,333 in the Mail Ballot Report) 1,330 would have to be rejected (to get from the 2,215 that were matched to uncredited voters to the 3,545 total rejects) . Not necessarily unreasonable, if you assume that many of the ones that would be counted that late would have been postmarked late.
[UPDATE some of the rest of this analysis is revised slightly due to new information, but the numbers are not affected]
I also gather that the 34 voter ids that couldn't be matched to any voter in the public database represent voters whose ballots were returned as undeliverable, and therefore the voters were dropped from the rolls. Add these to the "rejected" column, increasing the number of rejects by 34 to 2,249, and reducing the number of required rejects to 1,296.
The federal write-in and/or Address Confidentiality Voters (collectively called "service voters") should not have voter ids and therefore should not appear in the list. But they would still have to be counted in the total number of absentee ballots. Thus, there are still 320 more service voters that would have to be included in the gap between voter ids that match the database and the total number of absentee ballots received.
So that leaves 2,042 - 1,296 - 320 = 426 ballots remaining.
A question remains, what about the 91 voters whose ids show they cast absentees, but are credited provisional? One of three things are possible. (1) their absentee ballots were rejected, in which case they probably cast a legitimate provisional ballot. (2) they cast both an absentee ballot that was accepted AND a provisional ballot, or (3) they only cast an absentee ballot but it was credited provisional for some reason. If it's (1), then we need 91 ballots fewer ballots to get to 3,545, so we have 517 ballots remaining. If (2), we have another problem which we don't have the information to address here, but we still have 426 ballots remaining as we do in case (3).
The bottom line is we have somewhere between 426 and 517 absentee ballots that were valid and counted after Nov. 16 but before the first certification, yet only 379 voters to assign them to. Something doesn't add up. And then there are the 226 absentee ballots which somehow materialized in the recounts that don't fit into these numbers either.
That Absentee Ballot Audit Trail would come in real handy right now.
Posted by Stefan Sharkansky at March 23, 2005
03:15 PM | Email This
There is no mystery here - just fraud.
So what is the timeline on Rossi's case? When can we expect to hear something from the courts? Is there a site we can check for updates on the lawsuit?
From the Book of Binders
Clutter the mind and you'll clutter the soul,
the demons' hearts are as black as coal.
The numbers dance and change their minds,
For Darkness bring no lucid signs.
KC & Christine, what a pair,
say they've won both fair and square
Dino says: "stop and take note."
The people deserve another vote.
4. I am amazed at your tenacity & vilgilance! When, not if but when, Rossi is elected I hope he puts you in charge of looking over Sam Reed's shoulder!
5. Here here!! Stefan would make a great state auditor. Sontag look out
I think the Shark would be the first to say there is nothing magical here. There is only a strong desire and the time committment to follow through.
I, frankly, am quite envious of his idealism and energy on this matter. I just wish I could come up with it again.
7. What continues to astonish me is that it's almost April, and every day, Stephan finds something new! Is this ever going to end?
OK, Gang, The Botton Line: EVERY election in a Democrat controlled city [Philly, D.C., NY, King County, Chicago, Milwaukee, Harare, Zimbabwe, etc.] is crooked and fixed. This will continue until voter fraud becomes a capital offense. Unkl Witz, DON, Goldy: Democrats, the Party of voter felons
FAIRVIEW HEIGHTS, Ill. Five Democrats in East St. Louis have been charged in a scheme to buy votes in November's election in a federal indictment unsealed today.
Federal prosecutors in southern Illinois charged four Democratic committeemen and one precinct worker in the indictment.
Yesterday, four others pleaded guilty to related vote-buying charges in federal court.
Court records indicate voters were paid five or ten dollars to cast a Democratic ballot in the November second election.
They allege that the money to buy votes came from the St. Clair County Democratic Committee.
U-S Attorney Ronald Tenpas says the allegations do not address how many voters may have been paid for their votes or whether it affected the outcome of any election.
9. Not likely, give the extremes reached in search of lies at this point.
we're laughing, binder boy. LOL!!
Oh, hey!, I got a ballot for rossi stuck to my shoe!
Is rossi drooped over a bar stool somewhere yet?
I came a cross another example of voterless ballots, htis time in WI:
That investigation was prompted by a series of Journal Sentinel revelations about the Nov. 2 election. Among them: a 7,000 vote gap between ballots cast and people recorded as voting.
WI allows election day registraiton on election day which, of course, is an open invitation to fraud:
1,200 votes from invalid addresses; and 1,300 same-day registration cards that could not be processed because of missing or incomplete information.
11. Dang JCH - Why you got to include DC? Just cuz I smoke crack, bang hookers and embezzle millions of dollars don't mean I stuff ballots!! Racist!
12. M. Barry, You are the heart and soul of the Democrat Party. "Damn bitch set me up" will be a slogan of Democrats everywhere!!
I'll have to read more slowly (and take notes) to follow your arithmetic, but I see you are trying to fill in the gaps left by the sudden lack of transparency in reports issued by King County on Tuesday and Wednesday, Nov. 16-17.
It is odd how they stopped reporting the total number of absentee ballots received and the total number of absentee ballots found to be valid and counted. Both those numbers were last reported on Monday, Nov. 15.
They also stopped reporting the number of provisional ballots counted. Tuesday, Nov. 16, was the last report of the day's count.
On Nov. 17, their deadline for certifying their returns, they only gave a total of all ballots counted (898,238) and the day's count of 1,446 without saying how many of that 1,446 were provisional or absentee ballots.
Also in that Nov. 17 report, they stated that 31,545 provisional ballots had been "issued," 27,641 of those had been validated and counted, and 877 had been forwarded to other counties. (Nothing was said about how many were received from other counties.) Those numbers were later revised on Jan. 18, 2005: 32,996 "processed," 28,010 validated and counted, and 554 forwarded to other counties. (Still nothing was said about how many were received from other counties.)
Odd, how they were unable to give anything better than an estimate of provisional ballots issued by King County in their report on Monday, Nov. 8, and apparently couldn't get the numbers right on Nov. 17. Then, given a couple of months to sort things out, they simply gave up trying to say how many they issued. (They couldn't include the number received from other counties without providing an arithmetical way to figure out how many they issued. Was that why they omitted that number? Or, do they simply not know how many they issued and how many were forwarded to them from other counties?)
Notice how the number of provisional ballots forwarded to other counties went down (323) -- almost as much as the number of ballots counted went up (369). Too bad it's not the same number, so there would be an "ah-ha" moment.
I mention provisional ballots here, because they began on Nov. 10 to report the number of ballots counted since the previous report and the number of provisional ballots counted since the last report. To get the number of absentees counted since the last report, you have to subtract the provisionals from the total. (Then, of course, on Nov. 17 they removed that possibility by reporting only the day's count of all ballots, both absentee and provisional -- making it nearly impossible to know how many of each kind they counted on that last day.)
I wonder: How could their record keeping and reports get worse as the number of ballots they needed to process dwindled down to only a few?
14. Stefan & Micajah--
You 2 "numbers dicks" are Logan & Huennekens absolute worst nightmare. You are absolutely relentless....validating EVERYTHING the Abbott & Costello of Elections (Who's on first...No, Who's on second, What's on first) represent....assuming nothing. I've never seen anything like this.
KingCo Elections is a "Farcical 3-act Mini-Drama with a cast of bad actors".
You 2 are the Siskel and Ebert of elections!
15. Stefan, you're scaring the KC elections people. They must be whispering "We've been found out!" So where DID those extra ballots come from? Keep after 'em. You'll shake it loose from them one way or another!
16. Chicago -- Dozens of police departments in Illinois who joined a lawsuit alleging that a popular police cruiser is unsafe have dropped out because they said Ford Motor Co. threatened to stop selling them the cars. Officials said switching from the Crown Victoria Interceptor to another vehicle would cost them tens of thousands of dollars, and the specially built police cruiser is still favored by many departments. [Off Topic] OK, Gang, Follow this: This is important as Democrat City must be able to sue companies, drive them out of business, but then the companies MUST supply the Democrat cities, so the Democrat cities can sue them again. Got that?? [hehe]
Careful now Mr. Cynical, let's remember our "good home-training" manners in civil discourse.
And... ah, never mind. Sims is an ass & if I ever meet him I look forward to saying it to his face. It takes a couple of real pie-holes like Logan & Huennekens to look even worse than our ever-so-well-home-trained County Executive. (I wonder is he is potty trained as well?)
And JCH,I'm not surprised that Democrats were caught buuying votes, but I AM heartened to see that they are being prosecuted! How is it that we can't get that kind of accountability here???
thanks for sharing the story with us. There still IS law and order somewhere; even if it isn't here in Ukraine County. Dino was robbed
19. U-S Attorney Ronald Tenpas says the allegations do not address how many voters may have been paid for their votes or whether it affected the outcome of any election.
Of course, the prosecutor will have to prove who they voted for, right?