A source close to the Seattle Monorail Project confirms the following:
1. The "Elevated Transportation Company", which is the precursor to the Seattle Monorail Project and put the Nov. 2002 measure on the ballot, knowingly understated the cost of the project to the public. The ETC was told by bidders that the construction cost would be $1.4 billion plus inflation and contractor profit, yet the campaign materials for the ballot measure said that the construction cost would be $1.29 billion. The total cost figures that are now leaking out are, in fact, in line with the estimates the bidders gave the ETC before the campaign.
2. The Monorail will not meet its promise for the Green Line to be "open and operational" in 2009. The current understanding among insiders is that the delivery date is "definitely beyond 2009".
3. The "19 stations" currently promised cannot be delivered in the first phase within the current budget. As reported in today's P-I, the total cost of the stations designed by the Monorail is $185 million. This number vastly exceeds the orginal budget of $6 million per station. The problem could have been avoided, sources say, if the station architects commissioned by the Monorail had been instructed to design to budget. The initial number of stations is now expected to be cut back to 14 or 15. It's not clear yet which of the promised stations would be "postponed for a later phase".
Now is precisely the time for the state legislature to pass some laws to rein in the Monorail.
Posted by Stefan Sharkansky at February 17, 2005 11:50 AM | Email ThisPrior to putting any measure on the ballot a performance bond must be purchased guaranteeing that what is promised will be built as promised, delivered when promised and for within 15% of the cost of what it was promised to cost. If the sponsors cannot find anyone willing to sell them a bond then evidently the project involves either too much uncertainty or what is more likely, in my opinion, the cost of the project has been understated.
whether its the bay bridge here in the bay area, medicaid reforms on the federal level or the monorail project--budgets are merely marketing materials for projects rather than the mechanism to provide discipline to the project planning and execution exercise.
good luck on exposing the boon-doggle that the monorail project appears to be.
Posted by: dinesh on February 17, 2005 12:16 PMWe cannot grow without mass transit.
Tourism is the regions third largest economy and the monorail will be a boon, for the whole state. Why it doesn't run from the airport is beyond me.
When you consider spending four billion to get East siders to Seattle (new bridge) the monorail is cheap. Let's run it to Bellevue and no new roads.
Posted by: Doc on February 17, 2005 12:24 PMNot a chance. She's too busy with the orgy of law passing going on in Democrat controlled legislature in Olympia and/or hiding from the public outcry over the bogus election to give any attention to the serious debates that rage all over the state.
Posted by: Jeff B. on February 17, 2005 12:41 PMOn further scrutiny of the links that Stefan provided one statement really sticks out:
"additional subsidies may not be required once the Green Line reaches ridership estimates presented in this Plan"
this is repeated elsewhere. I'm pretty sure that Portland is still subsidizing it's light rail system due to limited ridership. If they're off by 15% so far on their cost estimates what happens to this subsidy if they are off by 15% on their ridership estimates? Where does that money come from, as it isn't part of the project cost estimate.
Also, on the Seattle Monorail project site, notice the 250 government jobs created just during construction:
http://www.elevated.org/project/faq/hottopic.asp?HotTopicID=25
Why so many? And what happens to those jobs when the construction is completed? Do they go away? I doubt it.
Jim
Posted by: Jim in Clark County on February 17, 2005 12:43 PMThe Seattle Times ran a puff piece editorial about how the Monorail project was "feeling it's oats" a day or two before this report came out. The Times must be feeling right foolish now.
The Moron-rail is an apt name for those truly moronic Seattle voters that voted for this project again. Their minds must have been so addled from Bush Derangement Syndrome they couldn't think straight. May a pox be put upon them, preferably in the form of ever increasing Monorail taxes.
Posted by: Bill K. on February 17, 2005 12:43 PMGosh competition sucks; especially when incentives are added into the mix - just in case you are a big brother type, this last statement was a joke!
Posted by: Jonathan on February 17, 2005 01:05 PM"Hate to say I told you so.
I do believe I told you so."
The Hives - Hate To Say I Told You So
Rail at any cost is a bargain and is just for the greater good, just like EVERYBODY voting.
Posted by: Andy on February 17, 2005 01:12 PMI knew their numbers would be off.
Posted by: K T on February 17, 2005 01:13 PMIf you ask the wrong question, you'll alway get the wrong answer. Who says the monorail is the only solution? Stop being so blind. Or, just bend over and take it like a man.
Posted by: dkpcowboy on February 17, 2005 01:25 PMRegional transportation problems are a shared problem, especially those at the central hib of the region, and I'd be happy to help contribute something, rather than sit here and watch Seattleites bicker away yet another transportation project into oblivion, or look for ways to avoid paying for it.
If reining in means producing stations that are safe and functional, if not bleeding edge design, then I'm all for it. If it means better transparancy of what is going on within the agency then that's something we should all support. But if it is a euphemism for starting yet another effort to kill the project, then I'm not.
Posted by: Daniel K on February 17, 2005 01:26 PMUnfortunately, fixed path transportation (light rail, streetcar, monorail) are great (relative term here) if all traffic is going to the same place. Comparing the $4B for the bridge instead of a monorail to Bellevue is comparing apples and moon rock. If someone wants to go to North Bend, a monorail going to Bellevue will not help. The bridge serves a massive number of people more than a fixed route to Bellevue.
Posted by: Jonathan on February 17, 2005 01:36 PMadd to that that it was a presidential election year where every batshit lefty and his dog was getting out the vote to send a message to GWB and there didn't have to be a fix.
Posted by: Rex on February 17, 2005 01:49 PMWe know that there are several thousand votes in question just from those missing and those added. I'm sure that there are several local issues that may have been a lot closer or defeated if the election was clean.
Posted by: Ken on February 17, 2005 01:57 PMI may not agree with a lot of people here, or anti-monorail folks, but I give them more credit than that in discerning what a Yes or No vote would mean.
Besides the vote wasn't close: 107349 (36.48%) against the monorail, and 186927 (63.52%) for it.
It sounds like Sound Transit all over again. I think that the number of riders that they are projecting is a dream number, like ST's was (IS)
Why not spend the money on something that is need far more... like replacing the Alaskan Way Eyesore?
Posted by: Bud on February 17, 2005 03:23 PMTotally agreed. The people paying for the Monorail (auto drivers) are least likely to use it. Those most likely to use it (bus riders) may not be paying for it.
This is just one more income redistribution (read: socialism) scheme hatched by King County's finest.
The Monorail will not take any cars off the roads, and will only shut down local businesses in their right-of-way. Studies have shown that cities of comparable population WITH mass transit (Atlanta, San Diego, San Jose) still have worse traffic congestion than Seattle.
Posted by: Jerry on February 17, 2005 03:24 PMSeattle Paper Tells Court It Faces Collapse
OLYMPIA, Wash. (AP) A lawyer for the Seattle Post-Intelligencer has told state Supreme Court justices that the newspaper would collapse unless they overrule a lower court decision that could end its joint operating agreement with The Seattle Times Co.
http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1000800768
Posted by: Mac on February 17, 2005 03:25 PMFor a moment there I thought you were referring to Mac's posting ("meant to sign that 'Larry' above"), after having just pretended to be Jerry ("had Jerry on the brain"), meaning Larry, Mac and Jerry were one and the same person!
Posted by: Daniel K on February 17, 2005 03:39 PMAnother issue I have with agencies such as Sound Transit is that they waste money like no tomorrow, their to a simple problem costs millions and still has not been implemented, where as my solution could have been put into operation within weeks at a cost in the thousands.
From the January 6, 2003 PeeEye http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/transportation/102909_get06.shtml?searchpagefrom=2&searchdiff=772
Follow up from the February 2, 2004 PeeEye
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/transportation/158981_get02.html?searchpagefrom=1&searchdiff=382
Guess what, really no surprise, nothing has been done despite their promises.
My system would rely on the guard, who is already at the station and is in radio contact with the conductor on the train, to flip a switch that would switch one colored light off and turn on a different colored bulb. The cost would be negligible and I guarantee the system would be sufficient.
And round and round it goes and where it stops nobody knows.
See the Seattle Weekly article at:
http://www.seattleweekly.com/features/0506/050209_news_monorail.php
JDH reminded me of Ron Sims' comment on the Hooterville Trolley when it was christened:
Officials touted the new line as proof the agency can successfully build a high-capacity system in Seattle.
"It is a very clear notice that Sound Transit can and does deliver, and it is a delicious taste of what will be delivered 40 miles north of here," said Chairman Ron Sims, the King County executive.
http://archives.seattletimes.nwsource.com/cgi-bin/texis.cgi/web/vortex/display?slug=link23m&date=20030823&query=delicious+taste+sims
Posted by: Rex on February 17, 2005 04:44 PMPortland's lightrail is much more extensive than the monorail and good at getting folks in from the suburbs (and smaller surrounding cities: Gresham and Beaverton are suburbs of Portland whether they want to admit it or not) to the city. The north-south line would ease traffic on some of the larger commute lines to the west of the city there. I am not sure that Seattle monorail/portland lightrail is good comparison right now.
My spouse commutes into downtown Seattle on public transit daily. Fixing the current mass transit system (bus and ferry issues) would be of more use than the monorail.
Everytime I read anything about the monorail my mind jumps to the Simpsons episode about monorails. Really don't the song lyrics say it all?
Miss Hoover: I hear those things are awfully loud...
Lyle Lanley: It glides as softly as a cloud.
Apu: Is there a chance the track could bend?
Lyle Lanley: Not on your life, my Hindu friend.
Barney: What about us brain-dead slobs?
Lyle Lanley: You'll be given cushy jobs.
Abe: Were you sent here by the devil?
Lyle Lanley: No, good sir, I'm on the level.
Wiggum: The ring came off my pudding can.
Lyle Lanley: Take my pen knife, my good man.
I swear it's Springfield's only choice...
Throw up your hands and raise your voice!
All: Monorail!
Marge: But Main Street's still all cracked and broken...
Bart: Sorry, Mom, the mob has spoken!
Obviously, there's a transportation problem in the region. If we could make a profit out of fixing it, why is the government standing in the way?
Posted by: Morgan on February 17, 2005 05:14 PMLyle Lanley: Well, sir, there's nothing on earth
Like a genuine,
Bona fide,
Electrified,
Six-car
Monorail!
What'd I say?
Ned Flanders: Monorail!
Lyle Lanley: What's it called?
Patty+Selma: Monorail!
Lyle Lanley: That's right! Monorail!
[crowd chants `Monorail' softly and rhythmically]
Miss Hoover: I hear those things are awfully loud...
Lyle Lanley: It glides as softly as a cloud.
Apu: Is there a chance the track could bend?
Lyle Lanley: Not on your life, my Hindu friend.
Barney: What about us brain-dead slobs?
Lyle Lanley: You'll be given cushy jobs.
Abe: Were you sent here by the devil?
Lyle Lanley: No, good sir, I'm on the level.
Wiggum: The ring came off my pudding can.
Lyle Lanley: Take my pen knife, my good man.
I swear it's Springfield's only choice...
Throw up your hands and raise your voice!
All: Monorail!
Lyle Lanley: What's it called?
All: Monorail!
Lyle Lanley: Once again...
All: Monorail!
Marge: But Main Street's still all cracked and broken...
Bart: Sorry, Mom, the mob has spoken!
All: Monorail!
Monorail!
Monorail!
[big finish]
Monorail!
Homer: Mono... D'oh!
On the serious side.. Living in Vancouver WA, I have followed the Portland Lightrail boondoggle very closely. Vancouver voters have twice voted No to extending the Lie-rail scam into our community. Still, it doesn't matter what WE THE PEOPLE say. Omniscient public officials know what the voters "should" want and are intent on saving ignorant masses from themselves.
Someone needs to look into Neil (girl 14 + mayor 35 =child rapist) Goldschmidt's ties to the Seattle Monorail. Where you find back room deals, shady investments and media spin you may find the Full Neil Deal.(I must say I have found Nothing incriminating. Goldschmidt has supporters and ties to WA. Not a surprise. What is more liberal harboring a child rapist?)
Why do I believe Vancouver bound for the Lie-rail scam? Three words, Radical Progressive Activism.
(Who Is Planning For Your Future?)
Cotton joined the Seattle-based Flexcar program shortly after the city of Vancouver won a $65,000 Environmental Protection Agency grant that subsidized expansion of the company's Portland operations. The grant helped reduce the cost of joining Flexcar in Vancouver from $395 to $25. Vancouver's so-called Green Fleet program started in 2002 with four members. It now serves 78, said Todd Boulanger, a senior Vancouver city transportation planner. Boulanger, who hasn't owned a car since 1988, is also a member.
(nothing against Todd, but would you hire a a cop who has never owned gun?)
Hahahahaha.. I see great minds think alike. Either that or we need to stop watching so much TV. Anyway, that was a great episode, back when the Simpson's were still good. I don't even watch them since social activist writers took over. Doh! NOT FUNNY!
Posted by: Splatter on February 17, 2005 05:30 PMYou can check out Denver for an example of how to do rail-based (for them light rail, but could as well have been monorail) public transportation system right. True, they bundled high way expansion to the second piece (to get voters to approve it)... but rider estimates that right-wing naysayers claimed were inflated, proved to be seriously underestimated. For some reason, white middle class folks actually love riding light rail; they can avoid those pesky darker skinned bus riders that way.
Anyhow, I'm going to enjoy your valuable contributions (in the form of car tax) to the Monorail project. So long and thanks for all the cash!