December 23, 2004
Next Time, Dino?
The whole thing smells funny and tastes real crappy, but there is no proof of fraud, or of enough disenfranchised R voters to reverse the latest numbers. If that assertion is wrong, let WA R operatives and/or lawyers go forth post-haste and overturn the latest results. But the final recount - or yes, call it a "value-added" re-canvassing, for that's what it turned out to be - apparently puts the deeply-uninspired and uninspiring Democratic Party hack Christine Gregoire into the WA Gov's office.
Like many, including Independents and even some Gregoire Democrats, I have found the WA D's "Keep Counting 'Till We Win" approach off-putting and grasping in the extreme. But whaddaya expect, really, given the razor-thin margins all along? And what now is Rossi's campaign reduced to? Same thing, unless class, restraint and the long view take hold.
I believe that in the end, a defeated Dino Rossi would come back even stronger, perhaps to challenge and beat U.S. Sen. Maria Cantwell in '06. If a whole lot of uncounted military votes are out there now, fine, count 'em, if at all possible. But post-11/2 postmarks aren't gonna be worth jack, are they now?
Moreover, extended legal challenges will ill-become WA Rs. The second recount was legal, and the State Supreme Court upheld the counting of King County ballots that supposedly were improperly not counted beforehand. Republicans and their supporters (and I was a Rossi supporter from early on) should be careful not to come across as shrill and unsubstantiated in their claims. Suspicions, however well-founded, do not equal wrongdoing. Prove malfeasance in court, very soon, or - respectfully - please shut up and move on.
Kinda like we what we say to the nutcake conspiracy theorists still bellyaching about the Ohio '04 presidential count, no?
Anyway, Gregoire's victory will prove Pyrrhic for WA Dems, if it holds.
Posted by Matt Rosenberg at December 23, 2004
08:46 PM | Email This
From previous thread:
I had to respond.
You have no idea how many democrats (notice small "d") want election reform. We are not part of the Democratic Party, and want to work with like-minded republicans (should there be a capital r? I don't know.) Together we can make a difference. This is a people have the power" issue. I know that you feel there is no chance in Democratic controlled KC, but we do have the power. Fight for it! Our country's democracy depends on it.
Posted by: oc on December 23, 2004 08:43 PM
Matt, I'm interested in doing what serves us politically. I don't think Dino has a tin ear.
There's nothing to be lost by talking to some canvassing boards. It may even be politically advantageous to have a federal judge hear this. If it's done the right way, it could set the distaste many voters have for this election farce and CG.
I'm not recommending we act like RATs.
3. oc - If you haven't read John Fund's article at opinionjournal.com, please do. He has the right idea and agrees with us on real election reform.
Hopefully this experience will inspire our legislature to tighten vote counting laws up a bit.
Personally I prefer to eliminate hand counting altogether and also tighten up which ballots can be counted/recounted:
If the ballots are rejected by 3 consecutive machines, they do not count and shall be discarded, nor shall they be considered in any subsequent re-count.
Any ballots not counted by Nov. 2nd are no longer viable unless their loss was a result of intentional misconduct.
I have been a constant critic of this site for some time. However, I do commend Dino for a well-fought campaign, and I think he ran an ethical one, too.
I'm not going to say he should concede, thats not for me, I'm not going to play that game.
However, if he loses, I think he would fare extremely well in 2006 against Maria Cantwell. I voted for her as well, but I think either Dino Rossi or George Nethercutt could pull a victory over Cantwell. Remember, Cantwell won in a close race as well, and she's vulnerable. I'm ready for a new senator.
We need to get the initiative process going. We should call for an initiative that restricts all of the counties from making public the results of their counting until all counties have submitted their results to the secretary of state and certified them. Then all of the results can be released. If a recount is called for the same rules should apply during the recount.
That way nobody will have the statistical data needed to miraculously "find" the extra ballots needed to sway the election one way or another. While what happened in King County "might" have been legitimate, this would prevent the appearance of fraud and corruption even if it didn't prevent the actuality.
Hear, hear, Matt. The last thing I wanna do is look like those pathetic whining losing 'Rats who lost the 2000 election fair and square and wouldn't stop trippin about it 'til voters shot their mouths on November 2. Republicans are smarter and have more class, so I expect Dino and the hand-wringers here to see the light and take Matt's advice.
The trick is to use the unity and passion we Republicans feel now to put forward candidates in '06 and '08 who will take it hard to the Dems. Cantwell is a MUCH better Senator than Patty Murray, but she's vulnerable on the Left with her initial support for the Iraq War. Let's get her. Chris Gregoire, despite her many talents, doesn't have what it takes to reform this state. We're gonna have a tough four years, and in '08, let's get her.
There are a lot of stars on the horizon. Dino, Tebelius, Attorney General McKenna. We've got a young, strong starting lineup. The Dems are exhausted, corrupt, and incompetent. We can beat them. And, for the sake of this State, we must.
Just an interesting note:
"He who votes decides nothing; he who counts the votes decides everything."
Hugh Hewitt's book, "If It's Not Close, They Can't Cheat" underscores the lenghths that some will go to "win" an election. While winning by a large margin is one strategy, what about directing the focus on voter fraud?
I agree that there is little to be served in the long term by court challenges, and a "re-vote" creates the assumption that the aggrieved is a "poor loser."
How about directing the attention toward those who can be shown to have abetted or committed voter fraud? Maybe Mike Harder of Apt 509, Michael Harder of Apt 509 might be a good place to start, if it can be shown that he voted twice. There might even be other votes by M. D. Harder, Micky D. Harder, M. Harder, Mike Haarder, Mikel Haerdeur, etc. Apt 509 might be a good place to start looking.
The health department probably has questions about all those people whose living in the uKraINe-G County Elections office.
And where are the investigative journalists looking into the conditions that lead to people living at a maildrop (500 4th Ave.)
We are approaching a situation like that in the South in the 1950s where we are going to need the Feds to step in and clean things up. Sure everything these past couple of months was legal. What was done back then was legal too. But what's legal is not what's right.
The Dems have come to depend on the incompetence of their people to cover for them, to provide the excuse that what's being done is proper. We aren't going to get relief and reform from the Legislature. Anyone who thinks that is a chump. Any attempt to put an initiative on the ballot for next year or '006 is going to get shot down by the state courts.even if it wins by 90%. Time to get the Feds involved.
I don't even think this is going to be a Pyrrhic victory. Xine was going to be weak all along, which is why she didn't get the same support at Murray and Kerry, but now she's fully owned by the Dems. What's exactly is going to give the Dems their comuppance? For years this state has tolerated the politics that got us here
(see McDermott, Sims and Boeing's move to Chicago for examples) and shows no inclination to stop.
Thoughts: This is NOTHING like Ohio. They had a 120,000 or so vote difference. Not even King County could doctor that one.
King County should never ever be allowed to do a handcount again. That's just a prescription for screw-ups or fraud, take your pick.
Dino is right to forge on, for now. If the Ds want to win it in the courts, then Dino has rightly recognized that that must be what he does, as well. I believe Dino has more public support for his current efforts because he hasn't insulted our collective intelligence with lame statements like "Look, it's another tie!" He has some good-name capital to spend. So spend it.
Another thought: she who lives by the court (and I mean in the sense those whose first instincts like x-tine are to run to the court the minute your number-crunchers tell you it isn't looking good for you), can die by the court. Just ask Al-Gore.
Eastside: good points. Either someone in a position of force/authority needs to bring that kind of stuff out in a legal, binding forum real soon, with strong documentation; or someone else could still, in the interest of ex-post-facto justice, bring it out later, just for the public record (though the former is far preferable).
What can't be allowed to happen with such allegations is for them to whither in a half-proven netherland, whether or not they influence the outcome of the contest or not. I guess I've just gotten a bit impatient with such fulsome, and quite possibly true, allegations. If proven true, fine let's riot (metaphorically speaking, that is), but the burden lies with the aggrieved.
13. SO, I'd like to know how I can start the process to get a law passed to the effect of: "No County in the State of Washington shall be allowed to post ballots to members of the Armed Forces, their dependents, or personnel in support of foreign military operations, with fewer than eight (8) weeks remaining before the date of a General election. Furthermore, if such ballots are postmarked with fewer than eight (8) weeks remaining before the General Election, members of the Armed Forces, their dependents, and personnel supporting foreign military operations shall have eight (8) weeks from the date of that postmark to return their ballot."
I believe Matt has it right, absent compelling evidence of fraud, accept it.
As one Democratic State Senator observed after all the machine counts, if the Democrats manage to reverse the result, they will be out of office for 25 years.
Cantwell and Gregoire are not re-electable.
The one needed reform should be that ALL counties must submit their results to the Sec State on the Same Day at the same time. King Co just kept "finding" votes, always just enough to overcome Rossi's lead from all other counties. Their actions have poisoned the whole election because they made it LOOK and FEEL like fraud.
Also, there is ample reason to demand the Legislature look into this and fix the system. Put the pressure on your elected officials in Olympia. They likely won't do much themselves this session, but they could get a panel going with a view toward passing legislation next year for the 2006 election cycle.
To Matt Rosenberg:
Like the poster on the other thread from Massachusetts said, it's time for the Washington State GOP to grow some stones. They have a case
and they should take it to Federal court.
Your worry about being "shrill" is very silly and misplaced. Never mind what the press will say--they hate Republicans, whatever the GOP does. You will never see the GOP get fair coverage. And never mind this bizarre urge of yours to show "class." Remember, the Democrats are hoping to use the Republicans' virtue against them. Lee Atwater was shrill and made the media scream in horror, but he won an election for George H.W. Bush; after Atwater died, George H.W. Bush showed what a "classy" guy he was, and lost.
I disagree with you totally.
16. Yeah, we need to roll over and play dead.We should realize that the most important thing in a democracy is not the vote. Who needs representation. Those who know how to steal in broad daylight have the game. Screw the enhanced ballots, screw the military ballots and screw the remaining ballots that were "too late".
17. Fellow Republicans, as much as I hate to say it, it might be a good idea to concede this election. Do we really want the fruits of a tainted election? Let the Democrats have the fruits of a WWE-like (rigged) election. There is always 2006; Dino would face an ineffective junior Senator and in 2006, and no matter how hard the Democratic Machine in Washington tries, it wont be able to make Cantwell look like an effective elder statesman.
Unfortunately, if the Republicans were to stop now and concede in this election - at this point....this state would never see an honest election again! The Dems now control the house and senate in the state. The very powerful King County is never going to change it's election policies - and with a Democrat-run state (as we would have if the Repub's concede), we would see another decade, at least, of Ron Sim's type tactics in our elections. No one would be in power to make the needed reforms!
We have never been so close to exposing the Dems election fraud in this state as we are right now!
Why on earth would we stop when we have the momentum? No one will ever look upon the Republicans actions as whiney or comparable to the Dems! To suggest that sounds like something from the Dems playbook!
Dino Rossi and the State Republicans MUST take this to the limit. To quit now would be un-American.
The Washington Democrats have apparently trained you to be a loser. When somebody breaks into your house and steals your stereo, you call the police, and if they catch him, you press charges.
Waiting for 2006 is what the Democrats want you to do. And if the GOP doesn't contest the election, then the Democrats can say that they won fair and square!
Let's start by saying to Dino, don't bother with Cantwell in 2006. Take the governorship with command in 2008. You've got more name recognition than you know what to do with, and most of the state is not going to forget what happened here.
The reason why Governor in 2008 sound so good, is that Rossi has what it takes to become President of the US someday. He should not damage that bid by waisting time in the Senate. We are going to need strong Republicans with real charisma like Rossi to keep the Republican wave going at the Presedential level.
All this said, it is still too early to concede. Someone, anyone should explore what went on in King County. The gut feel of the majority of Washingtonions can't be wrong. The election was tainted and it would be a shame to let go of this great opportunity without at least investigating King County.
On the plus side, we could end up with Rossi as Governor and Logan behiind bars. Now that is what I call a win-win.
Acceptance is not the path to change.
Whereas I agree that making accusations without proof only serves to make one look foolish, there are events that took place during this election that genuinely deserve a more thoughtful look to see if there was indeed fraud committed. Military ballots, felons voting, uncounted or erroneously rejected absentee ballots just to name a few. Not looking into these situations in great detail would be shameful at this point.
If the election were held today Rossi would be declared the victor, no doubt. Currently Rossi has very good will from the electorate and if he were to concede now he would retain that good will - but only for a short while. The democrats know that Cantwell and Gregoire are both vulnerable and would do everything in their power to make sure that Rossi is effectively "lowered" their level. Given a couple or more years (and some money returned by the state of Washington) you could dig up dirt on anyone and the mudslinging would be brutal. I suspect that the only reason that it wasn't that bad before the election was that Gregoire genuinely thought that this was going to be a walk in the park.
Frankly, now is the time for action. If Rossi burns some political capitol during the process, so be it. If he doesn't come out of this on top this time around, the democrats will make certain that he has no future chance to do so. We've already seen the lengths that they are willing to go to.
There may very well come a time to graciously concede and return to fight another day, but I do not feel that were there yet. Perhaps, not even close.
It's time to conceed with class. It's the curse of the Republicans. We just have too much class. We can't and shouldn't fight these battles.
Remember South Dakota in 2000. Thune lost to Johnson by just a few hundred questionable votes and look what happend. He defeated Daschle in 2004.
Class wins out in the end.
23. No way can we give up now! What a mistake that would be. If we want to get anything done the time is now.
24. Gilligan, Gilligan - Not in politics. You can't let these bustards drag you down. They would like nothing better than for us to go away quietly. Look how they demonize any "R"s who beat them. President Bush is one example. They know no bounds. It was excellent GOP strategy in S. Dakota. They were just one jump ahead of the dems. Let Rossi do his thing.
I don't think Dino Rossi can beat Maria Cantwell. If Washington state voters are willing to send a brain dead moron like Patty Murray back for a third term, they certainly will be more favorably disposed to Cantwell, who despite being just as liberal is far more intelligent and thoughtful.
Face it, Washington is only going to get even more blue as it resembles Ernest Callenbach's "Ecotopia" model, complete with a reigning feminocracy, and anyone who knows better will be fleeing just as taxpayers are fleeing California.
During the next couple of years, there will be debates on issues
that will enable a respected Dino Rossi and Republican Party to win over more voters. If they act like donkeys now, their views will get little respect then.
27. LOL - Here we are - poor little drowning rats clining to our last hope, our last little thread of justice in this state and you go and remind us of Patty Murray. Shame on you.
"Concede with class" - what exactly does that mean? Like Al Gore? I'm sure a brilliant career is sure to follow from all the goodwill he will garner, just like it did for Al.
The Republicans aren't conceding with class. They don't have any more cards to play. They can't just keep saying "only a flesh wound" and keep flailing away. Recognizing defeat doesn't take grace or class, just a bare minimum of realism.
Nobody can beat Patty Murray it seems unless Arnold Swartzenneger (sp) moves here and runs against her. I don't see that happening. But Maria Cantwell is vulnerable. Put Slade Gorton, Dino Rossi, or George Nethercutt against her, and that race could be interesting.
I voted for Cantwell in 2000, but likely will not in 2006 if the GOP can put a decent candidate forward. I believe Gorton would have won in 2000 if it werent for the Libertarian candidate then.
Not to be a complete naysayer, but what on earth gives any of you people the confidence that the "people" of Washington, who relatively easily voted to re-elect PATTY OSAMA MAMA MURRAY will vote out Cantwell in '06? I have no confidence, whatsoever.
The best chance Rs had was in taking an open seat. I.e., now with the governorship. Not that the governor of a state of people that were stupid enough to elect a democrat state legislature was going to go anywhere but down for the next several years, but I'm talking politically-- why is taking cantwell's seat in 2006 easier than taking an open gov seat? It's not 2000 anymore Toto. Lots of Californians here now.
31. What kind of odds did you give Reichert?
This isn't the time to concede; this is the time to sue
It isn't "class" to concede you lost when your candidate Rossi won the election. Besides, what does the GOP have in Washington that it can afford to show "class?" Peanuts! There are 2 Democratic Senators, 6 of 9 Democratic congressmen, a Democratic statehouse and senate. Any Republicans in there? Just three! And you just want to say "oh what the hell" when your candidate for governor actually won? Please. You sound like the national GOP in 1977.
John Slyfield, Gorton would have won in 2000 if King County had not been counting votes with no signature on file
. They've admitted
that this was their practise until May of this year. If a ballot came in, and there was no signature to compare it against, they just counted it! That is not a mistake, it is a CRIME
, and Cantwell is a usurper. That means the Democrat parity and then majority in the Senate from 2001-03 was invalid. The King County crooks stole the entire Senate!
Matt is likely right. As corrupt as KC is there is not a lot that can be done. I recall the Dan Rather case and bloggers had him figured out in hours. In this case the inital blogger blush has faded. I don't see legal cracks out there to be exploited.
On the dem side, what they did was dumb - I mean what were they afraid of - a few reforms? Now they have corruptly put in a poor candidate that everone knows is illegitimate. They have set the stage for their future defeat - and for 4 years of being on their heels.
Perhaps Rossi should spend the next 2 or 4 years simply being the vocal, "loyal opposition" to CG and the Dems -- much like they have a "shadow government" in England. That way, he keeps his name in front of the public and MIGHT even be able to raise the image of all Republicans among the Undecideds and "Dino-crats."
The point is to build so much momentum that the only obvious choice for Senate in '06 or the Governor's mansion in '08 is Dino.
Zev Sero: I voted for Maria Cantwell, but based on the circumstances surronding the race, I have always believed that in a dead heat, Slade Gorton would have won. This was before the ballot battle got resolved.
As to the no signature on file ballots, nobody knows. It's not the voters fault, but certainly efforts should have been made by county elections officials to try to get the proper signatures from Ralph Munro (secretary of state at the time) or the paper files, like KC did with the 735 ballots (only 566 were actually counted).
I will not support Cantwell in 2006 if she runs against Rossi, Nethercutt, or another credible candidate.
I think it is important for the state GOP to make sure that Gregoire's margin of victory is legitimate, and to take the time necessary to research the facts. If the margin is legitimate, then concede. If there are enousgh fraud or errors to overcome this margin, then contest the election.
Things which should be looked at:
1. Absentee ballots received up until 12/30/2004 (the date Sam Reed will certify the recount) should be counted (assuming, of course, they were postmarked on or before 11/02/2004). The WA Supreme Court on Tuesday said the SOS recount certification date was the date that counted, and not the 11/17/2004 initial county certification date.
2. Identify every military voter in the entire state (from all 39 counties). This can be done by looking at the mailing addresses on the permanent absentee list. If it is an APO, FPO, or military base zip code, then it is military. If it is in some other state, it is likely military. Some of the foreign country addresses may be military, but most will be ex-pat citizens who last lived in Washington while in the USA. Also, remember that federal law gives ex-pat citizens abroad the same absentee voting rights as military personnel anywhere. Also, look at the individual ballot requests for those military people who are not on the permanent absentee list.
3. From this list, find out which ones are not recorded as having their votes accepted. Then identify those who sent in absentee ballots, but had them rejected due to being late or not having their signature match. Also, identify those who didn't send in any type of ballot at all. In both categories, contact the service member, and find out whether or not they received their ballot from their county after November 2, 2004.
4. Failure of military personnel to receive their ballots before election day, or failure of the postal system to return marked ballots by whatever deadline, should not disqualify these voters. Federal law protects the right of military personnel to vote absentee. The right to vote is also a fundamental constitutional right, which should not be denied because of government error or misconduct. The state GOP really needs to fight hard on this military issue.
5. Signatures mismatches on absentee ballots should also be correctable if offered prior to the newly defined certification date of 12/30/2004, instead of the previously understood certification date of 11/17/2004. Apparently, Diane Tebelius offered 96 of these corrections today, but the King County canvassing board rejected them.
6. Look at the totals of ballots counted in each and every one of the 6,686 precincts in the state. Compare the totals in each precinct -- and by category -- poll, absentee, provisional -- for each of the three counts. If the number of ballots in any precinct, or in any category in a given precinct, changed between any of the three counts, then find out why.
7. Even more to the point, compile a list of each and every person who voted in each precinct, and by category of ballot. This is all public record. Then count the number of people who voted in each precinct and category. Then compare those numbers with the official ballot counts by precinct and category. If there are more ballots than people, this means that an illegal vote was cast by someone not entitled to vote. If there are more people than ballots, this means that ballots cast by people (who were found qualified to vote) were lost. Either way, this is an irregularity. I would bet there would be far more than 130 of these discrepancies (either up or down) in the entire state, if not simply in King County alone.
8. See if a case can be made that any of the canvassing boards was unfairly prejudiced in the manner in which doubtful ballots were decided. This may be very hard to prove, so make sure the facts are there before simply making wild allegations.
9. Try to match up the names on the registration list to see if anyone is registered to vote more than once in Washington. If so, determine whether that person voted more than once.
10. Try to match up the names on the registration list to see if anyone is registered to vote both in Washington and in another state. If so, determine whether that person voted both in Washington and in another state.
11. Try to match up the names on the registration list against a database of convicted felons. See if other state's databases are also available for this purpose. If there is a match, see if that person voted, and see if their right to vote has been restored by court order.
12. Finally, it is probably not possible to match up the registration list against any U.S. citizenship database. But it would be worth thinking about anywhere.
If all of this shows fraud, or more likely error, sufficient to place Gregoire's 130 vote margin of victory in doubt, then the election should be contested. If not, the election should be conceded.
Good grief you wimpy Republicans! The first sign of trouble and you want to drop your swords and run away like a bunch of little girls. You can't win a war unless you fight, and NOW is the time to fight.
Stop licking your sores. Itís time to stand up and fight for truth, justice and the American way.
The D 'victory' in this election is not pyhrric at all. We came close this time, but this is a blue state and CG will win re-election in '08 by a comfortable margin. If Rossi challenges Cantwell in '06 he will be crushed like Nethercutt was this year.
If we R's want to experience electoral victory at the state level, we should move to Idaho. Just like the D's in this state will have to move to Canada if they want to win nationally. It's just not in the cards for us in WA. There are just too many tree-hugging hippie types around here.
The "American Way" is to follow the rule of law and respect elections. All of this talk of "fraud" and "corruption" is meaningless absent some proof. If you have it, lets discuss it. If you don't, then you're likely just angry and have no better way to vent your frustration.
Dino needs to concede. Why? Because the law was followed, and by law, he lost. The rule of law is at the heart of the greatness of America and our democracy. If Dino and the R's can't follow the law, then what makes anyone think they should inhabit the top office of the State?
I just realized something odd. Many folks on this board have been charging the King County elections dept with bias and fraud because they "found" those 700-odd ballots so late. I don't get it. Their *job* is to find ballots! Their screwup was to lose them in the first place.
If anything, the Democrats should be angry that King County almost blew the election with this error. Of course, since King County is run by Democrats, it was probably incompetence rather than bias. But if a Democratic administration of an overwhelmingly Republican county had mistakenly rejected 700 ballots, Republicans would rightly be alleging, or at least suspecting, fraud.
I know some of you have raised questions about fraud based on specific facts, and those questions deserve airing. But based on the evidence to date, I think an objective observer would blame King County primarily for incompetence that had the appearance of favoring the Republicans.
But x-tine Gregoireovich Yanukovych didn't follow the law. She got it changed when she knew she was losing. Dino knows that he has to fight fire with fire. Democrats never follow the law when it doesn't benefit them. They go to a judge and get the goalpost moved. Just like in New Jersey with Toricelli. Or x-tine with those provisionals.
If law had been followed, Dino would have won this, too. If Gregoireovich's own '96 legal opinion had been maintained, Dino is the 3rd time winner. Dino is the only major candidate in this race that TRIED to follow the law. Unfortunately, x-tine Gregoireovich didn't see it that way. Now he has to go through the courts as well, just to keep up.
Oh, and let's reverse this. Say x-tine is winning and Dino runs to a Spokane judge and cries (like Paul Berendt) to get provisional reject names released. Runs all over the county cherrypicking only Dino votes. In the meantime, Yakima and Spokane counties 7 times come up with 'new' votes that are not immediately explainable. they find them in their pants, etc. But strangely, every time x-tine's lead grows, these two counties 'find' more ballots. Then the republican-dominated canvassing boards start awarding stray marks and names like Dino Gregoire as Dino votes. Republican handcounters get caught cheating, but not all get sent home. Then the Republican party tells the canvassing board to start sending ALL overvotes to the them so that 'the fix is in'.
Now, Ds, how does it look to you? fair and square??? Not hardly, pilgrim.
fight on, Dino!
It's kind of a shame... Matt wrote a well-reasoned, tempered piece, and most of you are to busy wallowing in your disappointment and paranoia to recognize an opportunity for real
electoral reform when you see it.
Most of the suggestions I see here are aimed at preventing fraud in King County. Yet there has been no documented fraud brought to light yet. If you think the way to fix elections is to prohibit King from performing hand recounts, then you're not really interested in reform, you just want to extract vengeance for an excruciatingly close, but lost election.
As a Democrat, I'll never be convinced that Bush really won Florida in 2000. But you know what? It's that kind of attitude that probably cost Kerry the election in 2004. Us D's were so caught up in our own righteous sense of outrage, that we just assumed the rest of the country was too. We lost touch. The majority of voters really didn't give a fuc... (Stefan won't let me curse here.)
So if you all want to hold onto your anger and think that it's somehow going to win you elections, go ahead and self-destruct. Because in two years, most voters are going to remember this whole incident like they remember a bad meal.
However... there are a lot of electoral reforms that rank and file R's and D's would both agree with... so why not turn this whole crapfest into something positive, huh? Like voter verifiable paper trails on electronic voting machines. Or moving the primary to June, so that we can absolutely assure that we get our military ballots out in time. Or clearly spelled out statewide standards for matching signatures and canvassing ballots. Or mandating that voters be notified when their signature does not match.
Michelle...just saying "she broke the law" doesn't mean she actually did. Your selective interpretations of the law don't count. Even your own Republican Secretary of State, and the State Supreme Court, unanimously, agreed that King County was following the law.
Listen; I understand you don't like the outcome. But, you've shown no laws that have been broken. You've shown no fraud. You allude that King County was finding votes that weren't supposed to be counted, and yet, you have zero evidence of this inflammatory charge. The votes that you point to were found to be legal, unanimously by the Supreme Court. Even a Republican Secretary of State agreed with King County in their legal exercise of correcting an error.
But, let's step back a moment. Your argument amounts to the disenfranchisement of legal voters. You seem to want legal votes to not be counted. What is the overriding principle that is guiding you in this opinion? I ask, because is certainly doesn't appear to be the rule of law or democracy.
By the rules of the election, Dino lost.
Here's a brief stastical look at the numbers of the 2 recounts (machine/ hand); (Applied just for Rossi/Grergoire)
All other counties excluding King:
total votes 1,887,963 Change: +26 Rossi (0.001377%);
King: 856,963 Change : +245 gregoire (0.02859%)
All other counties excluding King:
total votes: 1,889,094 Change +7 Rossi (0.0003705%);
King 857,500 change +179 gregoire (0.020875%)
All other counties excluding King: total votes recounted: 3,777,058 +33 Rossi (0.00087369%)
King: 1,694,463 + 424 gregoire (0.0250227%)
So my quick math shows that the change rate in all other counties is just 35/1000ths of the change rate in King Co.
Or this is to say, King county changed their votes by a factor of 286 times (or 2,864%) the rate that all other counties combined changed their votes.
I did the probablity analysis using chi-squared analysis.
Sounds like this:
We'll use all the counties except King County as the control.
The rate of vote change (unilateral)was 33 / 3,777,058 or 0.000873%
So, the same expected rate of change for King Co (1,694,463) would be 14
But the observed number was 424.
We want to know whether this reflects a real change, or whether it's just coincidence. Statistical calculations cannot of course answer this definitively, but we can answer a related one: If the rate of change remained at 0.00873%, what is the probabilty of 424 votes changing out of 1,694,463 votes?
Here's the answer:
P value and statistical significance:
Chi squared equals 12007.242 with 1 degrees of freedom.
The two-tailed P value is less than 0.0001
By conventional criteria, this difference is considered to be extremely statistically significant.
So there it is. Based purely on the numbers of the rate of vote change, (King County compared to all others) I do not believe that one can reasonably assume random variation in the way the votes changed.
If it was not random, then by definition it must be considered a guided or biased change.
Notice too, that this is simply a numerical analysis of the variation of recounting, or a review of the proposed "error" rate.
I must conclude therefore that there is absolutely no scientific confidence in the recount changes as being a random statistical event.
Take care ya'll,
and Merry Christmas,
What a wonderfully methodical approach to investigating voter irregularity! I agree at this point - the best way to proceed - would be as one proceeds in any criminal investigation or audit!
The databases are in place for most of what you've proposed.....
Send your ideas to the Rossi camp....
I said she changed the law. Why else did she have to go to Dean Lum to get names released? Read closer. Even King Co. was arguing against releasing the names. That's a rare switch. Also, there WAS cheating by democrats going on in the counting room. Not all those cheaters were fired. There were errors (a bennett vote landed and was forever lost in the Gregoire pile and counted as a G vote). A stray mark that is clearly not a vote gets awarded by the canvassing board to x-tine. King County until May was letting mail-in ballots with no signatures count. Homeless people with addresses in foreign countries were allowed to register and vote. Those unverified homeless people voted by the hundreds for Gregoire. Nobody cared to verify if they are really who they say the are or if they are citizens. In fact, non-citizens can register to vote if they're willing to lie about their status. Nobody cares.
Republicans in King County who never got their ballot found out the ballot had been voted anyway. That's a pretty willful act of fraud. The system is broken and is frankly run by people like Bill Huennekens who wish for the opportunity for as much fraud as possible. Why else whould he be in favor of letting non-registered people vote, as he told me?? It's purposely sloppy and not getting fixed any time soon, as long as these people are in charge. LIke I said, reverse it all and you tell me if you would have thought it on the up-and-up.
49. Oh, and an observer reported a couple weeks back that JUST IN THE SPACE OF THREE HOURS, she TWICE caught King county ballot counters trying to change Rossi votes into Gregoireovich votes. Don't try and tell me this was an honest count. It absolutely wasn't and King County was clearly not able to guarantee a clean count free of fraud. cheating counters are likely an excellent explanation for the statistical problems described above and throughout these posts. It also doesn't hurt to count stray marks as votes, even when they clearly don't look like votes.
50. Amazingly, a bitterly partisan and anti-american leftie who was actually one of the paid democrat counters these past two weeks actually called a radio show and barked "If there's fraud in the handcount, you can just consider it payback for 2000!" THIS WAS A PERSON COUNTING VOTES IN KING COUNTY. Yah, he was certainly someone you could trust your life with --- NOT! We all know that anyone who was really and truly honest would never in a million years spew garbage like that. And yet, that's the kind of people x-tine sent to fix, I mean, count those King county votes.
To David Goldstein,
And to others who suggest we concede and use the election as a foundation for election reform. I'd be willing to go that route if you can explain to me what the point would be in any election reform when we have election departments and a judiciary that have demonstrated they will ignore laws in place.
Opening records of provisional ballots, recanvassing during a recount, divining voter intent from overvotes and non votes just to name a few. Sure you found judges to say its all legal, giving truth to the saying "You stole it fair and square" I can't think of any reason, other than stupidity, that we shouldn't play the same way.
Please, could somebody help us, explaining this image?
Please, could somebody help us, explaining this image?
54. Although a Rossi supporter, I agree with Matt and David. Dino is a young man with a great future; Gregoire is older and I suspect this governorship is her last hurrah. Washington, except for King County, is a red state. The republicans have made considerable progress since the days of Ellen's army and capture of the party by the Buchananites. Republicans can take the high ground and push for meaningful election reform; they can continue the grass roots campaign and channel the energy into building capacity; and they need to take back the ground they lost to the libertarians--dont forget those 60K votes are what cost Rossi the election. As I said in another thread, Rossi need not concede--concessions arent legally binding and with a carefully worded statement, he can push for election reform and use Gregoire's words: its a tie, to make the case. I do think the law suits need to stop: the precedent set by Al Gore in 2000 to throw elections to the judiciary was one of the worst things that has happened to this country--I would hate to see republicans go down that road. As one commenter pointed out, republicans can use the Johnson Model or the Kerry Model. I think thats a no brainer.
Mark, the person above is right. Accept the fact that the christian reconstructionist party (Formerly the Republican Party) lost a race. it happens. the person that some think should win comes up with less votes and thus concede the election to the better woman.
Get over it, move on.
56. Magnum: You didnt read my post very carefully--Rossi has taken the republicans to the center while the democrats in Washington state, clustered primarily in King county move further to the left--not a good place to be. And elections do not elect the "better person." They only elect the person with the most votes--no moral quality attaches.
Mark posted a "quick statistical analysis" for our perusal earlier. I wish that he'd taken a bit more time to check his numbers, becuase they seem to be wildly wrong.
Mark said the following About the Machine Count relative to Gregoire in King County:
Total Votes: 856,963
Total Changed: 245
But, in actuality, his percentage is wrong. It should be:
He's off by a factor of 100.
So, I ran his "total numbers" and found that he was off by a factor of 10.
I looked at the Hand recount and then the combined recount numbers he provided as well, and found a similar pattern.
Mark, your numbers seem to be in serious error. Can you explain?
Take the high road Dino.
Abraham Lincoln lost quite a few elections, and always took the high road. He ended up winning a few in the end.
Al Gore lost a close election, and the image of "whiner" is etched in our heads forever.
Not only was he known as "Honest Abe"...most other people in those days were of the honest variety.
We will never win in WA if KC is allowed to always get away with fraud..not in 2008 or ever. It has to be dealt with now if we ever hope to get a Republican elected state-wide. KC will see that any close election goes their way. They got away with it with Cantwell/Gorton and were never challenged...now is the time!
It does seem to me that there is a Bush v Gore
problem that has been created by the Wash. Supreme Court. King County revisited previously rejected ballots, but voters in other counties, "similarly situated," did not enjoy this luxury, creating an equal protection problem.
I do think that election reform is a necessity. At the national level "motor-voter" must be repealed. It is an invitation to fraud. Picture ID, with proof of citizenship, should be required of all voters at the polling place, and when they apply for absentee voter status.
Furthermore, Washington needs to have a California-style recall to deal with just this sort of situation, so as to allow the voters a chance for a revote. It may seem chaotic, but it allows corruption to be addressed more directly.
Yes, there is a danger in legal challenges, but there is also a danger in avoiding them, as it rewards corruption.
61. Folks, let's not delude ourselves about election reform. With the D's running KC and the state legislature, the only reform we're going to see is requiring absentee voters to return ballots before election day. Anything more meaningful (like purging the registration lists, for starters) will be stalled/vetoed/compromised etc. because it "limits access" or disenfranchises dead people.
listen while I cannot devulge any specifics
there is proof of fraud.soon enough you will
know what I'm talking about.
B Knotts...but other counties DID revisit and recanvas votes. And, they had clear guidelines from the Secretary of State saying that they had the ability to determine whether or not to recanvas votes. You are overlooking key facts in the situation.
There is no fraud here, so far as what has been represented.
Iíve been listening to the Republicans for the past couple of days, and took notice each time they have implied that King County was manufacturing votes; ďat least enough to give Christine Gregoire a win.Ē This made me wonder? Did King County add more votes to their final tally than did other counties? From listening to many Republicans, I was left with the impression that King County must have, by magnitudes, found more votes than any other county.
Well...I decided to run the numbers. And guess what? King County wasn't the lead vote finder. Nor were they second. Or third. Or even fourth, fifth or sixth. Nope. The top six counties to add votes to their final tallies were counties that Dino Rossi won.
King County tied for 7th place in percentage of total votes added to their final tally.
To see a chart listing the top ten counties in order of total percentage votes added to their final tallies, please visit my blog at:
The votes that the Republicans are clamoring about were legitimately cast, legal votes. To argue that King County should not have counted them is odd in a democratic election where legal votes are ALL that matters.
Is that what we've come to? In an effort to win at any cost, the Republicans are going to argue that King County shouldn't have counted legal votes?
I keep hearing in this thread that we should take the high road and work for election reform during the 1 term that CG will have. What reform? The reform that will be passed by a democratic governor, a democratic legislature and ruled on by a democratically focused supreme court?? I believe that if we do not have outside interference (ie the federal courts), we will continue to lose our ability to even hope for a fair election ever again.
It's my understanding that, aside from King, only Skagit Co. revisited any previously rejected votes. They looked at a grand total of: 1 vote.
I think to comply with Bush v Gore, the Sec. of State and/or the Wash. Supreme Court would have had to clearly instruct counties to follow the same recount procedures as King...or, obviously, instruct King to follow the same recount procedures as everyone else.
As strange as it may sound for a Republican to call for federal "interference" :-), I do think that the feds need to come in and make sure the goal posts stop moving for EITHER side. I don't think there is one "average" citizen in this state that clearly understands what happened in KC. If true, there is no greater reason for real reform.
Whether or not federal intervention would affect THIS election, I do not know. But the comedians that run KC clearly will not allow true reform, either because of incompetence, fraud or whatever reasons you wish to choose. This state- and specifically KC- is in desperate need of help.
My suspicions of what really happened are only reinforced each time I see Comrade Gregoirovich cackling and smiling on TASS, errr... I mean local news stations. :-)
A percentage is expressed as x/y times(100%).
So when you divide the numbers, in order to express as a percentage, multiply 100.
ex 2/5 = .4
.4 x 100 = 40%
You're leaving out the ballots that King County found during the first count.
You guys sure are mad about the concede with class thing huh. Look at the races since '94. Republicans time and time again have shown more class and have continued to gain seats all across the US, in the House, Senate, Govenorships, State Houses and President.
Rossi has a bright future ahead of him and to bow out with class(that does NOT mean to get the green light to Gregoire's win) and continue to build good will in the state.
What does dragging this thing out do? Look at all the polls. Regardless, most see a Rossi win and a "stolen" election. This can be used for future races. Not just for the Gov spot but Congressional seats as well.
I know Rossi won, you know it too. But you also know when the power players in the state (outside SOS) are dems, there's no way a victory can be gained legally.
It's winning the hearts and minds that's important and Rossi's done that.
"There's always tomorrow for dreams to come true".
After days of skirting the edges of sanity, it appears you have become completely unhinged.
To Richard's list I would add,
Count the ballots in King County by machine
one more time, looking for an increase in
the overvote. If there is, look for which
ballots switched. If an increase occured, and
it disproportionately broke against Dino, take
that as evidence of fraud [intentionally
turning Rossi ballots into overvotes.]
To Stefan and all of soundpolitics:
The case will go to Federal court, and reach the US Supreme Court--which re-affirm Roe v Alabama. Here's what happened:
Two 1994 statewide elections in Alabama were extremely close. In deciding the winners, the issue of how to handle absentee ballots arose. Alabama had a statute that allowed absentee ballots to be included in certified election results only if they were enclosed in an envelope bearing the signatures of 1) the voter and 2) either a notary public or two witnesses.
But Democratic election officials attempted to count absentee ballots in the 1994 election that had only the signature of the voter on the envelope. It appeared likely that counting these ballots would confirm a small lead by the Democratic candidate for treasurer and possibly overturn a Republican victory in the chief justice race.
Democrats prevailed in the state courts. A state trial court ordered the contested absentee ballots to be counted. But plaintiff Larry Roe, representing voters in the November election, went to federal district court arguing that counting the questionable ballots would dilute the legitimate votes cast in the election and thus would violate the due process clause of the Fourteenth Amendment.
In early December, the district court granted a preliminary injunction and ordered Alabama Secretary of State James Bennett to certify the results without the contested ballots. He and a group of voters who had cast the contested ballots then appealed to the 11th Circuit in Atlanta. The appeals court upheld the injunction, but ordered the Alabama supreme court to determine whether state law permitted or excluded the questionable ballots.
Alabama supreme court decided that it was okay to count the ballots despite their lack of appropriate signatures. The decision was based in part on the argument that some of Alabama's 67 counties had counted such ballots in the past. The 11th Circuit ruled that in all but one county, the practice prior to the November 1994 election had been uniformly to exclude the ballots. The Alabama supreme court's finding to the contrary had been based on affidavits from local elections officials who subsequently offered very different testimony in federal court.
The 11th Circuit upheld the district court's ruling and ordered the contested ballots excluded from the totals. The clear lesson of the Roe case: States cannot effectively change the process of counting votes after an election, which the state courts in Alabama tried to do. Moreover, the 11th Circuit specifically rejected the claim that Alabama's vote-counting procedures did not invite federal scrutiny because they didn't involve federal constitutional issues. The appeals court recognized that Fourteenth Amendment issues were present when a state attempted to change retroactively its electoral process.
"Allowing only a few counties to count ballots based upon the subjective opinion of partisan election officials, operating without guidelines, effectively changes the rules for counting ballots after an election in violation of Roe v. Alabama."
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - -
Scalia would love to re-affirm this one. Repeat after me: Governor Dino Rossi!
the precedent set by Al Gore in 2000 to throw elections to the judiciary was one of the worst things that has happened to this country
Ummm, it was Bush who sued in Federal Court to stop Gore's recount, not the other way around.
Your correct quote is:
the precedent set by George W Bush in 2000 to throw elections to the judiciary was one of the worst things that has happened to this country
While many things about the counting, recounting and re-recounting in KingCo looked and smelled bad, there does not appear to be any evidence of systematic fraud.
But this isn't where the d's are really gaming the system. This election was gamed before anybody cast a ballot.
The d's learned a long time ago that if they could register enough people in the months ahead of an elecion, they could cover any close election by re-evaluating questionable ballots.
Take a second look at Stefan's analysis of precinct 1823 and of the timing of the registrations of the 573 magical mystery ballots.
Election reform in this state and elsewhere in this country must begin with registration. Voter rolls must be cleaned up. What other country on this planet, except maybe in the third worrld, allows anyone to register to vote on the honor system? Or allows political parties and advocacy groups (on their honor of course) to submit voter registrations.
Voters, at the very least, need to present evidence that are qualified to vote (citizenship and residence) in the juristiction where they register.
Allowing voters to register with partial names invites abuse - check out the two Mr. Harders living in the same flop house.
The list goes on and so does the potential for fraud.
I wonder if anyone has considered comparing the publicly available sex offenders list with voter rolls?
Has anyone in Kittitas or Grant Counties compared the addresses of farm laborer dormitories with voter rolls?
CG may have pyrrhic victory indeed, but when power is the goal and the tools remain in place to protect it, what does it matter?
Put up or shut up.
If you have evidence of fraud, lay it out. Otherwise, it's time to concede.
77. 98 ballots end up where?
Alaska's elections director said yesterday she has 98 uncounted ballots from Washington's Nov. 2 election and would like to send them back here.
In Juneau, Alaska Director of Elections Laura Glaiser said a quick look at the 98 ballots found one showing an Alaska mailing address but a place of residence in Tacoma.
If not now, when?
Throughout the post Viet Nam war Democrats/Liberals practiced winning at any cost. This started with the Kennedy/Nixon race - Nixon conceded, saying it was best for the country. Nizon's concession was repeated many times by Republicans facing similiar results by similiar means. Most recent races held in Indiana and Washington (Slade and Marie) resulted in Republicans bowing out with the words (it is best for ______________fill in the State.
I for one say that this is not best for the State and Rebulicans bowing out in a close election fraught with questionable activities are emboldening their Democratic opponents and weakening the country as a whole because they are turning a deaf ear and a blind eye to systemic corruption.
It is time that the citizens stand up as one voice and demand that resources be directed to investigate and prosecute wrong doers of every stripe and position. It is time for a change. It is time for the citizens of Washington to demand an honest government as one voice regardless of their political persuasions. Republicans and Democrats suffer the consequences when the political appartus is co-opted by small number of zealots. Failure to do so will result in consolidation of power and continued lost of personal well being.
It is folly to belive or expect the Dino Rossi to shoulder the entire burden. The system will only work if you and I and your friend speak with one voice and contest the election and demand a runoff contest. It will be difficult for the court to ignore the voice of 500,000 voters.
We must be heard and heard sooner, rather than later as time is drawing nigh and the noose is tightening.
Care to add your voice to the crecendo?
Call me at 425 460 7113 or email me at email@example.com
79. First, as Richard Pope advocates, we Republicans determine if "value added" canvassing included fraud. If so, we go after the Democrats and challenge Christine's election. If we cannot quickly and accurately determine fraud, then I'd advise Dino to concede quickly and with maximum class. Then go for a "two fer" - how's that? Well, we run Dino for Senate against Maria in 2006, then using that US Senate pulpit, he runs as a safe US Senator for Governor in 2008. Then when he wins, he resigns his Senate seat and appoints a Republican to the Senate seat giving that person 4 years to build name ID etc. Dino can then finally clean out the deadwood in the state bureaucracy and use the contacts he has build up in DC to make the state more business and job friendly. In the final analysis, what we have done is hand the Democrats a pyhrric victory in 2004 and then in the out years they are hoist by their own petard. And the state gets redder.
To the poor deluded DustinJames:
Read my last post. It's about Roe v. Alabama. Be sure to read it slowly.
The Republicans will "put up or shut up" (your phrase) in court, not to you. So you can crawl back into your lousy little dorm room now, Justin.
I can recall very early, like in the days immediately following the election, that Paul Behrends maintained steadfastly that Gregoire would win, would prevail. Of course he had no way of knowing since it was obviously a very tight election. But what he did know was that the D's almost surely would be able to 'find' enough votes, whatever was needed, to put them over the top. They control King County, after all, and the canvassing board - 2-1 Democrat. Thus any close election, say where the original count is 1% or less for the R's, can easily be retaken by the D's. I doubt seriously you can find a close election, 1% or less, that has been won by a R, at least in Washington State. The R's have to win by a good margin or else they lose.
Both parties can and will steal votes. It is just that the D's are so much better at it, their voters (they win a major chunk of the lowlifes) far more willing to steal, vote twice, etc., and of course they always have the King County 'strategy' to fall back on if they need to. And they needed all these things in this election.
I think it is all over, I say with great regret. It is not pleasant watching an election being stolen right in front of your eyes.
82. How does one find out if their vote was indeed counted? If your vote was rejected, are you notified?
83. Robin, you make an interesting point. It's well known that if you regularly go to church, there's a 66% chance you vote republican. If you don't regularly go to church, then there's a 66% chance you vote democrat. This doesn't make the churchgoers better than the non-churchgoers, but it means they feel an accoutability to a higher power that sees them if they cheat. Otherwise if POLITICS is your religion, and you see republicans as the devil (c'mon, we all know those people are out there. They are the same people who think Bush is more evil than Saddam Hussein and we've all heard those types on radio, etc), then all forms of cheating against pure evil become totally fair game and you would see nothing wrong with it because your higher power is your politics.
Put up or shut up.
If you have evidence of fraud, lay it out. Otherwise, it's time to concede."
Thatís amusing. If you have been reading this site you will have seen dead voters, over 50 voters all living in a flop house were no one stays more than a day or two, multiple votes from the same person, registrations with permanent out of state addresses. All this from just one King county Precinct. The election was stolen but we may just need to live with it. Many in this state would revolt if they knew the truth, but few care enough to know and some of those are happy about it. The people will get the government they deserve.
That was very well put, Michele
Damn! I like this blog....
86. Let's keep in mind that it isn't only the diehard GOP voters that feel cheated. There are THOUSANDS of dems that voted for Rossi and feel very cheated. Is it too early to hope that the Wash. lefties will go the way the national dems are going and are in the process of self-destruction. I don't think so.
First of all, the statistical analysis shown above is flawed. The post lumps the other counties NET change, without noting individual variances in between counties. I'm sure if you looked at the variances between counties, King would likely fall in the middle. In the machine count, for instance, they were 27th of 39 counties in terms of accuracy. In the manual count, King County was 25th of 39 counties. Without the screwup, they would be in the top ten.
Accuracy rate for King County (547 votes changed hands): 99.93759%. Accuracy rate for Yakima COunty (30 votes changed hands): 99.92381%.
I took the absolute values (no negatives) of votes changed (i.e. gregoire loss of 5, rossi gain of 10, bennett gain of 1 would report as 16, not a rossi gain of 15, and divided that by the final number of votes cast).
Also, statistical inferences are meaningless. FOr all intensive purposes, this election was a survey of all eligible voters. big N (population of all eligible voters) and small n (sample) are virtually the same. So to suggest fraud based on your flawed system would not work.
I'm not going to suggest any counties were fraudulent, but King County certainly falls within the expected range.
Five counties finished above the expected margin (all of the counties whose manual recount totals matched the machine count). In addition, one county also had an accuracy rate greater than expected.
Three counties finished below the expected margin. My determination is that King County's results may be similar in accuracy to the average. I do not have any tools to do any more in depth analysis, but I can conclude that King County's error rate was within expected. Don't just look at cumulative margins; look at the accuracy rates.
You are dead on, but you will never get a lefty to admit it. You see they believe that everyone is just like they are. So they just believe that "everyone does it" we all lie. And that helps to explain why many of them despise practicing Christians
Damn Michelle, tell it! Great job capturing the essence of this, and on Christmas Eve, no less!
Okay Matt, someone had to do it - and it was you. Turn up the lights, turn off the music, yell 'clean up this mess' and the kids are scrambling to leave. A few tough guys want to fight you. Cars are revving out in the street, one or two lay a patch on the concrete.
In other words, you have been the parent who came home too early at the Dino recount party.
So, pray tell, what should be Dino's strategy, now that you have everyone's attention?
I understand that to get a percentage, you multiply by 100. But, that's not the mistake you made. Look at your numbers again, and read my post carefully. You've made a mistake in Christine's numbers that you haven't made in the comparison numbers.
Bknots said: I think to comply with Bush v Gore, the Sec. of State and/or the Wash. Supreme Court would have had to clearly instruct counties to follow the same recount procedures as King...or, obviously, instruct King to follow the same recount procedures as everyone else.
The irony here is that this is precisely what the Dems had asked the Supreme Court two weeks ago. The Dems held that all Counties should be held to the same standard relative to canvassing votes, that all counties should be compelled to revisit rejected ballots. But, the Republicans and the Supreme Court disagreed.
The Supreme Court then, and reaffirmed in the most recent ruling, said that the discretion belongs to each individual canvassing board.
So, no the Republicans want every vote that was rejected to be recanvassed? Well...again, read the decision of the Supreme Court.
It is not the fault of the Democrats if other canvassing boards felt that they had no need to review previously rejected ballots. Again, the DEMS were asking for this, and the Republicans first rejected the idea, and now seem to be embracing it.
Each canvasing board had clear guidelines from Sam Reed stating that a revisit of mistakes and errors in previous canvasing was entirely at thier discretion.
There is no fraud here.
Say it with me Dino:
"I actually voted to not count every vote before I voted to count every vote."
Flip Flop, Flip Flop, Flip Flop...
93. Timothy, you are delusional. If the shoe were on the other foot - and King County was a Republican bastion - and the D's faced this situation - they would not only call for the same tactics - but would be screaming for a Federal DOJ probe. Please, measure your comments with a weighted test - or are you D's intellectually incapable of considering the converse to a set of facts?
94. On the Roe v Alabama - hypothetically if federal courts, citing Roe v Alabama, ruled that the King 735 ballots caused a different counting standard across counties and should not be counted. Then wouldn't the final result be +10 for G - as that is the total before the Kng 735?
Can you see past your dreadlocks to provide me with your source on Gore winning the 2000 election yet, or are you too busy hugging a tree?
Oh, but you wrote a research paper on it, so it must be true!
Listen, if you're just here to make fun of Dino Rossi, you're in the wrong place - the joke is on YOU! And if you don't realize it, well, that's the definition of irony. What do I mean, that the joke is on you? Let me tell you...
I grew up in Chicago. At least this election has had ONE good effect -
THE COOK COUNTY ELECTION JOKES CAN CEASE NOW. IN THE FUTURE, PLEASE REFERENCE KING COUNTY.
I notice that you never say the word ďlegitimateĒ as in count every legitimate vote
Fraud is a criminal act that has to be proven.
What you have here is out in the open election rigging. By a 2-1 votes election votes are finding selective votes. They are determing that some should be counted and others not be counted. Thats bold rigging. Then you votes that are divined by a 2-1 vote of election boards. Christine Rossi and black marks count for Gregore. A bubble for Rossi and a circle around Gregore does not count for Rossi. These 2-1 votes are not election fraud, but if by 2-1 vote these folks were certifying financial results for the SEC. The SEC would have them in court and in jail for certifying election results as financial results. I hate to use the Enron word, but even Kenny Lay would call these votes "Votes".
King county is just what would have happened in Florida 2000 if those folks would have been allowed to run wild.
98. Dustin James: thank you for correcting my quote, but, sorry, my friend: you misquoted me--I did not say "federal court;" what I said was it was Al Gore who decided to throw the election to the judiciary to the judiciary--It was Gore who first contested the election in state court--that as last I looked it up is the "judiciary."--but you could look that up if you wanted to--even the good folks at Slate commented on this several months ago. Nice try, but unsuccessful.
I actually have a short military style cut, believe it or not, I'm not pierced, I'm not tattoo'd, and I'm a white 27 y/o guy.
I dress in suits or slacks for work on a daily basis, and to look at me, you'd peg me every day for conservative corn-fed Nebraska good-ol boy.
That aside, your tolerance level of others outwardly appearances isn't so amusing. If the GOP wants to gain in their inclusion of others, they need less of people like you who judge books by their covers. Ask the girl with the pink hair in a very non-traditional cut who answers the phones who voted for Republicans this year because she doesn't like abortion on any level. If you continue those types of statements, you'll start to alienate the younger non-traditional bases of your party...
I could not find the link, but I did find my paper.
The USA Today in-depth review shows that Gore would have won using 2 levels of standards in a hand recount (out of 4 possible standards), and that to the question analyzed by USA Today: "Who does it appear most voters intended to vote for?" the answer was "Al Gore."
As to your question Verne: I want to count all legal votes.
You are correct, I apologize for the mis-readinf your statement and issuing that correction. I assumed you were talking about the Federal courts since it was a Federal election.
And as to the ascertation that the Democrats were stealing this election by finding enough votes...
I'd like to ask why then, did 6 Rossi counties mysetriously manufacture more votes on a percentage based level of their total votes than King County did?
And why did the other 3 in the top 10 also just happen to be Rossi?
Hah! Your attempt to take the moral high ground now, after casting aspersions at Republicans and making jokes about Dino Rossi, borders on pathetic.
Apparently I got under your skin, you sparkly-clean-flat-top metrosexual, you.
I don't care what you look like. I only wonder what in your life makes you feel so insignificant that you must come on this website and make fun of other people so that you can feel superior. Do you have a dead-end job? Is your wife or girlfriend cheating on you? I don't know, and furthermore I don't care.
What I do know is that YOU KNOW that this website is frequented by people who LIKE Dino Rossi, who VOTED FOR Dino Rossi, and who take this whole process seriously.
Your implications that Democrats are smarter or more educated than Republicans and your joking about Dino Rossi carry no weight here.
And, by the way, the GOP is gaining more and more members every day. Look at the Hispanic votes for Bush this year. Look at the Gallup Poll that shows more Republicans than Democrats. Look at the birth rate in Red States versus Blue States.
Or, continue consulting the Zogby Poll that showed that Santa is a Democrat and the Grinch is a Republican. Like I said, I don't care.
I looked at the Roe v. Alabama case. Two important points can be drawn from it and Bush v. Gore.
First of all, it is a violation of due process (and presumably equal protection) to dilute the votes of valid voters with those of invalid voters. Several of numerous possibilities here:
a. Get a list of everyone who voted and what type of ballot they cast. Count up the names. Compare that with the ballot count in each precinct. If it is over, then an invalid vote was cast by someone not legally authorized to vote (i.e. ballot stuffing). Odds are that a total of at least 131 extra ballots (not cast by people who signed the voting rolls) will be found just in King County, if not statewide. King County added 336 ballots to the machine recount, and another 59 ballots to the manual recount, without any explanation (this does not included the 566 or so ballots that were misfiled).
b. If the number of ballots counted is less than the number of people who signed the voting rolls, then that is also a violation of due process and equal protection. This means someone cast their vote and was not counted. Probably more than 131 of these, just in King County alone. The Shark analyzed the precinct data from the machine recount, and found that 800 ballots in King County had disappeared -- i.e. precincts reporting fewer ballots counted than on the original count. Since the ballot count increased only by 59 for the manual recount, those ballots obviously did not reappear.
Secondly, it is a violation of equal protection for different counties to use different standards, or not to have any standards at all. It is also a violation to change vote counting rules during the middle of an election. Several possibilities here, including:
a. The Secretary of State has no WAC regulations governing recounts, or how to determine voter intent on disputed ballots. Actually, there is only one rule -- hanging chads must be counted if at least two corners are detached. Anything less than that, and it is subject to discretion of the canvassing board. Nothing at all regarding optical scan ballots.
b. Probably just about none of the county canvassing boards have rules for determining voter intent on disputed ballots. And if they did, they would certainly not be uniform statewide, resulting in an equal protection violation.
c. Various counties changed their "rules" during the process, most notably King County. For example, any alleged "overvote" had to be referred to the canvassing board to divine voter intent, even if the overvote was obvious. Also, the number of overvotes in King County magically increased from 46 to 87 in the manual recount.
d. In the absence of any standards for determining voter intent, each and every ballot that the GOP may want to question should be subject to independent review by a federal judge, who would apply the same standard to every ballot. Or more to the point, the federal judge should not try to make state law by determining standards, and should simply throw out the election, since there will obviously be more than 130 ballots that could be decided one way or the other.
There are many ways to crunch the numbers.
I asked / answered one question in my analysis.
Can we assume random variation in the amount of votes changed unilaterally (one direction) in King County during 2 recounts, when compared to the unilateral movement in all other counties combined?
I can crunch the numbers for other questions you suggested if you'd like .
I believe you are referring to the selectivity and sensitivity of the test applied (recount). And are these significantly different for the different counties?
Still. One question, one answer. Does King counties' unilateral vote change fall within a statistical probablity of random variation when compared to the unilateral movement in all other counties combined?
[3.8 million votes recounted all other counties and there was a net movement of 33 votes.
1.6 million votes recounted in King Co, and there was a net movement of 424 votes.]
The answer is "certainly", no.
I will be happy to look at the other numbers you suggested.
Merry Christmas all.
Whoever sits in the governor's chair after this election will be seen as illegitimate by a large share of the WA populace not to mention the rest of the country. There was no winner. There can be no winner. It was a statistical dead heat. The republicans would be better served to accept Gregoire's grab and then do what the media tried to do to Bush with the Florida 2000 vote when everal of the nations's major newspapers went together and counted every Florida ballot with three different standards, including the legal one. Bush won in all instances. (Sorry dems, Bush really did win.) Since this wasn't the news that the papers were looking for it never made the front pages but was buried deep inside. The point being that if any scenario had shown that Gore could have possibly won, it would have hit the headlines and would have been used to damage Bush and the republicans.
Instead of risking the ire of the general public by continuing to hold this election hostage - let's let it go. Then let's go back over the results patiently and thoroughly, insisting on total, unbiased, unpartisan accuracy. If it shows Gregoire the winner, so be it. (We won't shout it from the rooftops.) If she really didn't win then she will be damaged beyond recovery, especially if King Co. proves the primary source of error or fraud.
I know a number of people who voted for Gregoire who say they wouldn't if they had it to do over again. Let's build on that sentiment. Take the high road. Build for the future.
106. It's time...
Put up or shut up.
If you have evidence of fraud, lay it out. Otherwise, it's time to concede.
Uh, Dustin...I mean this in the nicest possible way, but who the he!! are you, that anyone has to prove anything to? You are not the arbitor of anything.
You just said:
"There was no winner. There can be no winner. It was a statistical dead heat."
I say to you: That's baloney.
After the process plays out in Federal court, you will see clearly that Dino Rossi won. No wonder you are arguing again that it was a "tie."
The media have no role in this. They are mere spectators. The people decide elections, except when there's a violation of due process (which we have here) and then we need a Federal court to
make sure the people really did decide the election, as opposed to some Democratic party hacks.
The only valid way to look at this is NOT to lump the other counties. Snohomish, Pierce, and Kitsap had huge changes that go unnoticed when you lump them together, for example. What you have to do is to run a t-test (n=39) with the percent of variance. I dont have a t-table in front of me, but substituting 1.96 (95% allowance), suggests that King County's results are within the expected range.
This test doesn't test bias in favor of a specific candidate (Pierce and Snohomish both showed a gain for Gregoire that was unexpectedly large). But nevertheless it doesn't lump 38 counties to mask vote changes like your analysis did.
And to be honest, the feds will not get involved as long as Sam Reed refuses to certify the latest result from thurston (+1 gregoire). I hear that will be the case, and the original thurston certification will be included, resulting in a 129 vote win for gregoire.
Again, the Supreme Court ruled that all this number crunching wont do any good (see washington state democratic central committee v. Washinton State Secretary of State Sam Reed) in a contest.
Any way of crunching numbers is 'valid'(as long as the math is accurate). One just has to define what question is being asked and then left to the reader to decide its application. I was just asking, "if we see in one population of 3.8 million people 33 deaths from lightening, is it a stastical difference to see 424 in a population of 1.7 million?"
Now of course I recognize your criticism of the way the control was set. Still, in applying the numbers, ultimately an important result is the combined unilateral change values since this is what determines the election outcome. The whole point I was making is that King Co falls way outside statistical probability when compared to the other counties combined. I think its a fair question. Its not the only question, or the last question, or maybe not even the most important one. Its just another way of viewing the results. And, I might add, from a sociological standpoint, one that many people intrinsically feel about the election and why there is such a cry of foul play.
I'll be doing a county by county review of the sensitivity of recount values, similar to Stefans.
You have a Merry Christmas,
110. Well, you could remove Pierce and SNohomish Counties and count them seperately, and come up with a case that they, too, were biased but you dont.