December 17, 2004
Pierce County reported. Here is how the two-party votes fell:
of new ballots
The probability of Rossi getting at most 201
of the 433
new votes is ~1%
. When you include the new votes for Bennett, Pierce added 447
new votes, which gives a tabulation error of 0.14%
. This is the highest tabulation error for any county so far, except for small Franklin and Asotin, whose break down of the new votes was a net gain of 1 for Gregoire, not a statistical anomaly.
The outcome in Pierce County is not quite the anomaly that Snohomish was, but is still a stretch to attribute as simply the correction of random mistakes.
An explanation from the vote counters is called for.
Posted by Stefan Sharkansky at December 17, 2004
01:47 PM | Email This
1. The fat lady has likely sung. Get those initiatives rolling. Timmy.....
Gee whiz Stefan,
I've said it before and I'll say it again... pick a freakin' rationale!
Previously you said that the Democrats were more likely to spoil their ballots. Where you attributed this to stupidity, I attributed it to socio-economic factors and poorer neighborhoods having shodier equipment.
Now, you alleged "anomalies" every time a precinct county contradicts your theory that newly added ballots "should break to both candidates in the same proportions as in the previously counted absentee ballots." Your assertion here is based on arbitrary musings. People who vote by different methods may have higher correlations to certain parties. In other words, voting methods themselves may be an independant variable.
It seems that as Rossi's lead slips closer and closer to the true intent of WA voters you panic more, and more, creating shifting rationales (similar to Bush Administration's 27 Iraq War reason's). The problem for you is that (a) you consider every democratic reason for gregorie winning to be illigitmate a priori, (b) the more rationales you come up with the less any individual one should be believed, (c) your statistics are crap-- according to you Rossi should have won the first and second rounds by thousands of votes.
sorry for all the misspellings. my record of postings has been replete with typos.
other than that the only thing I'd add to my last commentary is a message to Republicans... you will lose this race, stop whinning, and get over it.
"Dude", get a grip. [Note to self: investigate why the most hysterical liberal trolls all post under assumed names]
I am merely pointing out anomalies, and asking for explanations, not attributing them to any specific cause. You can speculate all you want, and maybe your theory about poor neighborhoods and shoddy equipment is a valid explanation. But let's look at the facts and not just rant like you're doing.
Your theory would NOT explain the Snohomish anomaly, as all of the variation was in the mail-in ballots, not having anything to do with neighborhood polling place equipment (well, maybe it's the case that some people are so poor that they can't afford working pencils, or something)
"other than that the only thing I'd add to my last commentary is a message to Republicans... you will lose this race, stop whinning, and get over it."
Translation: You people didn't really think you could elect a governor in this state, did you? Don't you know that elections are the sole province of Democrats? Don't bother to vote, because we'll just take it away anyway.
6. Rationale is easy: republicans claim foul play when gregoire gains; democrats claim foul play when gregoire would have gained
7. I agree, its over. With each subsequent count Gregoire continues to gain votes. If we counted another 5 times she would probably win by 1,000 votes, maybe more. For some reason, more counts equals more votes for her. I am sure someone has a rational explanation. Anyway, Republicans take solace. I am done whining, the election was stolen fair and square right in front of our faces. Tim Johnson did this to John Thune in 2002, only to have it take down a Senate Minority Leader in 2004. Rossi is positioned perfectly for 2006 against Cantwell, and I will be surprised if Democrats and not penalized electorally down the road for either their egregious incompetence or fraud (pick one, it doesn't really matter). Thank God this vote counting fiasco didn't have a bearing on the Presidential election.
8. By the way, I will be one of the first Rossi supporters to say, "concede". There is no use in prolonging the inevitable. Come back to fight another day. If this is how the Democrats want to "win" elections, so be it. There is a political price to pay for this stuff, it won't happen right away, but it will happen.
Just adding my edits:
Changing "egregious incompetence or fraud"
to "eGregoirous incompetence or fraud"
Ok, carry on.
10. Ferrous - That was worth a laugh ...
11. I agree with Marc. I think its all but over, and should it turn out that way Dino should walk away to fight another day. The question is what to do now. It's simple and we were tought by the best.....we go total moonbat on their asses. Anyone got any spare "not MY govenor bumperstickers"? Seriously, we need to resist every proposal or pet project the dems propose. Maybe a tax revolt is in order, as long as we dont destroy the state in the process. There are enough Dems disgusted by this that we could win next time as long as we dont let them forget.