December 16, 2004
Recount Scoreboard

Snohomish County just reported, reducing Rossi's lead by 44 votes.

It's fair to assume that any newly discovered ballots would be distributed to the two candidates based on their share of the previous vote counts. In this case, 194 new two-party votes were added in Shohomish, of which 75 went to Rossi, 24 fewer than would have been expected based on his share of the machine recount in that county. The probability of such a large deviation is only 0.03%. This is not an outcome that can reasonably be attributed to chance. Another explanation is required and it would be interesting to hear what it might be.

Counties Reported
36
 
% of State Vote Reported
50.5%
 
Apparent Gain in Lead
(+Rossi / -Gregoire)
+32  
Imputed Lead (assuming no new votes in unreported counties) +74  
Momentum Change in Lead -15  
Net change in 2-party votes +674 +0.05%
Tabulation error 0.05%  
Total Lead in Reported Counties
( +Rossi / -Gregoire)
+127,282 +9.1597%
Lead in Machine Recount from Unreported Counties -127,208 -9.3811%
Rossi lead in machine count in unreported Ex-King   +27,501
Extrapolated Rossi lead in unreported Ex-King +27,514  
Required lead in King for Gregoire to reverse -154,796  
Gregoire lead in machine count in King -154,709  
Required increase in Gregoire's lead
in King manual recount for reversal
-87  
New two-party votes required in King
(assuming same breakdown as in machine recount)
484  
Imputed tabulation error in King County to produce required new two-party votes 0.06%  
Posted by Stefan Sharkansky at December 16, 2004 03:11 PM | Email This
Comments
1. Clearly, some Ukrainians have infiltrated the counting crew in Snohomish County.

Posted by: b crosser on December 16, 2004 03:32 PM
2. Dino is toast at this point. How can Rossi lose 44 votes in a county he won? Amazing. King County probably doesn't even need the additional absentee ballots or other found ballots at this point. I think the writing is on the wall, and it ain't pretty. Oh well, its been stolen. Nothing to see here, move on boys and girls ...

Posted by: Marc on December 16, 2004 03:50 PM
3. Too much cough medicine does it everytime.

Posted by: Dan on December 16, 2004 03:51 PM
4. I believe per the website Pierce will come in 17 Gregore. Tough tough. I love to see precinct by precinct in Snobomish

Posted by: Ralph on December 16, 2004 03:57 PM
5. I can't believe you're actually surprised by a recount result that's an anomaly. That is exactly why recounts are done. I've been saying all along that counties that are reporting small or consistent minor changes in the count are simply not doing a good, diligent job in the re-count.

Significant changes and differences are supposed to be found. That's why the law requires re-counts! Your foolish attempts to make them rational based on prior results are now held up for all to see exactly what they are: foolish.

Stop trying to impute some sinister meaning to counties that do a good job of trying to re-count. There's nothing sinister at all -- it's a sound effort by committed individuals to get at what might be closer to the truth.

Posted by: Nelson on December 16, 2004 03:58 PM
6. Nelson,

I did not say there was a sinister motive in Snohomish. In nearly every other county, the variations between the machine count and the manual recount are tiny. In Snohomish the variation cannot be explained by chance. Whatever the explanation, it needs to be investigated.

If human error is the cause (either in this recount or in the previous recount), the error needs to be understood and something needs to be corrected -- either now, if appropriate, or to prevent a similar mistake from occuring in the future.

Posted by: Stefan Sharkansky on December 16, 2004 04:06 PM
7. This is not an outcome that can reasonably be attributed to chance. Another explanation is required and it would be interesting to hear what it might be.

Please Tell, ROFLMAO!

I can't wait to see this site descend into the gutter. Far right? More like far gutter....

Get ready to whine all the way to the courts Dino, your day of toast is coming soon!

Posted by: Sha on December 16, 2004 04:54 PM
8. That's right, Stefan. It's a conspiracy unless Rossi wins. It's a conspiracy unless Republicans win. It's a conspiracy if counties, including counties other than King, report more votes for Gregoire.

Who's going to the courts now? That's right - the GOP is! All this talk about conceding for the "good of the state". Republicans clearly don't give a damn about the good of state! They just want to win, and forget about the cost. If that means talking about conspiracies and leveling accusations at elections officials, so be it, even though the GOP hasn't gotten any proof of fraud.

Washington State doesn't need the Republican Party and its cronies spreading this filth all around.

Here's to the failure of your court case.

Posted by: Jenny on December 16, 2004 05:16 PM
9. Re: Snohomish discrepancies. Unlike King County, there is a logical explanation for this. The D's have more incompetent voters. The mismarked ballots with clear voter intent (e.g. circling the name but not marking it as directed) favor the Democratic candidates. For example, if the total vote is 52-26-2 favoring Rossi, these types of ballots might run 55-45 in favor of Chris the D. In monitoring the Pierce County count, the D observers admitted they were counting on the dumb votes to lean their way, and it certainly seemed that was true.

Posted by: Don on December 16, 2004 05:18 PM
10. Sha, your comments strike me as coming from someone that is in, oh... let's say, for example, Ukraine? The outer rings of Saturn?

Let's settle this thusly:

I had one bottle of ketchup in my fridge this morning. One. This afternoon, I put another one in there. That makes two total.

(Follow closely here, as it gets very confusing for many left-wingers.)

1) How many bottles of ketchup did I have in the fridge this morning?

2) If I RECOUNTED the bottles of ketchup that I had in my possession THIS MORNING, but did it after I bought the second bottle, how many bottles of ketchup would I inventory for that time period?

If you find that too confusing, please describe for the class your definition of "RE-count?"

Best of luck to you,
Dan

Posted by: Dan on December 16, 2004 05:24 PM
11. Jenny - Apparently you are delighted with the half billion dollar tax increase Locke and both democ. controlled houses want. As I recall Rossi BALANCED the budget when he was in the senate and is on record for stating a new tax is not necessary. Doesn't it bother you that 6 BILLION dollars at DSHS is UNACCOUNTED for? Other than she's a democrat, what will Gregoire do for the State if she gets in? Many democrats that voted for Kerry and Patty Murray voted for Rossi because of questions like this. What's your reasoning?

Posted by: CP on December 16, 2004 05:30 PM
12. Remember that Snohomish county is one of the two counties in the state which used electronic voting machine - i.e. one of the counties in which the only paper ballots which ever exsited were *printed* expressly so that they could be hand counted. So the electronic voting machines say how many ballots were cast for each candidate, a set of computers prints out that many sheets of paper, then humans (likely even less reliable and trustworthy than the printers) counts them up by hand, and now, when the results don't match, we go with the result of this insane hand-recount fiasco, instead of the number the electronic machines had to begin with? Unbelieveable.

It's clear that Gregoire will almost certainly win this hand recount charade. If her margin of victory is less than the deviation introduced in Snohomish and the other county that had to go through this insane wild goose chase, then I think the republicans absolutely have grounds for challenging the result.

Posted by: Brian on December 16, 2004 05:45 PM
13. The Democratic Party mantra in the weeks since the election
has been 'count every vote'. In the vast majority of
counties in the State of Washington, the numbers of ballots
counted barely changed a whisker between the election and
the first recount, indicating that every vote was indeed
counted by reasonable standards. But in King County, which
is politically controlled lock, stock and barrel by the
Democratic Party? There, ever since the election ended a
steady stream of forgotten, misplaced, overlooked and
bedraggled ballots has emerged from under piles, out of
unsecured storerooms and boxes, and even from the pockets of
voting machines.

What a blow to public faith in an election
process. Obviously those chanting that mantra were not
spending any time making sure that the ballots were
organized enough to count in a timely manner, or even
secured from possible tampering.

Joe Johnson, (recently elected to the WA Supreme Court), was just heard recommending that when such misfeasance is found in any election process, that the misfeasor (malfeasor when appropriate) be identified, investigated and prosecuted if the result of the ballot-mishandling tort is to disenfranchise any voter (think military ballots to start).

Otherwise, King County standards are so lax as to allow any ballot-loser, hider, folder, spindler, bender or mutilator to escape scot-free by pleading that a dog ate her ballot envelopes.

Posted by: Hank Bradley on December 16, 2004 05:52 PM
14. A few observations here:

If as you say that Snohomish County used electronic voting machines to record their votes and that the hand count showed different results, then it is my conclusion that the hand count process is a bunch of worthless bunk. To be fair, if I recall right, Yakima County used the same system so we can give back the 15 votes we gain there.

Second, I used to work as a cashier at a grocery store and at the end of our shifts, we used to count up the receipts from customer's purchases. With rare exceptions, all the cashiers usually come out "over" or "short." I would contend that the hand count exercise is futile and that for lack of a better term "is a joke."

Posted by: Efrem from Sacramento on December 16, 2004 07:14 PM
15. Come on... do I really have to be the one to explain that those 44 votes did not come from a hand count of the electronic voting machines? Think a moment guys...

60-some percent of the vote in Snohomish was by absentee ballot! That's where the votes changed.

Sheesh.

Posted by: David Goldstein on December 16, 2004 07:43 PM
16. Mr. Goldstein:

Then if that is true that the 44 ballots were from absentee ballots, then what is the point of having electronic voting machines? You Dems were moaning and griping over the chad fiasco in Florida and wanted a foolproof method of voting. So here comes the electronic voting machines which were the magic bullets and yet you still use the old systems for absentees?!! My second point still stands, human error will come into everything including the counting process from everything from counting cash at the end of the shift to coutning votes. So, the next time if you don't know how to cast a vote correctly, follow the stinking directions.

Posted by: Efrem from Sacramento on December 16, 2004 09:32 PM
17. Efrem... first of all, explain to me how one is going to vote absentee using an electronic voting machine? Second, where did you ever get the idea that Dems are in favor of electronic voting machines?

Dems are absolutely terrified of electronic voting machines that don't have voter verifiable paper trails, and this Dem in particular is extremely concerned that electronic voting machines have one of the highest residual voting rates of all voting technologies.

And as to whether the hand recount is more or less accurate... what you are seeing throughout the state, almost without exception, are ballots that the machines misread as under or over votes, being turned into real votes by bipartisan teams of counters who can clearly discern the voter's intent.

Remember... Rossi has gained votes statewide thus far, and a rate closely matching his lead in the overall vote.

Posted by: David Goldstein on December 16, 2004 10:04 PM
18. The rest of the country is laughing at WA much the way we all laughed at FL in '00.

Republicans across the country are mortified at the way the WA 'pub party is letting itself be walked on by the Fagins and Artful Dodgers AKA Democrats. This is just like the Torricelli 'do-over' and Palm Beach ceaselss 'do-overs'. Doesn't the WA 'pub party have ONE sentient lawyer with the brains to get this King County diviniation project stopped and reversed?

Posted by: KittyBurglar on December 17, 2004 01:04 AM
19. For those still interested in what happened in Snohomish, here's an explanation from the Everett Herald:

But the results of the hand recount favored Gregoire, reflecting where the candidates drew their most electoral support. She won 51 percent of mail ballot votes while Rossi won 53 percent of those cast on touch-screen machines on Election Day.
Posted by: David Goldstein on December 17, 2004 01:47 AM
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