December 14, 2004
Recount Observer Report

From a Republican friend who's been observing the festivities at the Ukraine County manual recount in Tukwila:

Today, Tuesday, Dec. 14, 2004 marked the completion of the sorting of all absentee ballots into their proper precincts (except for those mis-sorted).

It also marked the “discovery” of more “previously uncounted but valid ballots,” of which King County seems to have an inexhaustible supply. These latest ballots bring the current crop to 577. The latest additions were supposedly discovered when someone was poking through the Election Department’s warehouse and just happened to notice some absentee ballots left in the stands which housed the AccuVote machines at the polling places. The ballots were brought to the attention of the manager of the Department’s 1st South facility shortly after the election was certified. She set them aside until today. Now they are being sent to the canvas board.

Charging fraud may be premature but it is clear to those of us who have seen some of the innter workings that the King County Elections office is completely ignorant of concepts such as inventory control.

Incidentally, this morning some of the Democrats were explaining that these mysterious ballots keep appearing because the Republicans in the Elections office keep hiding them. It is an interesting theory, but lacks just one element – Republicans in Ron Sim’s Elections office! These people are from the same wing of the Party that believes computers are a Republican plot to steal elections. Whether this is by design or through incompetent management is an open question.

Tomorrow workers will re-check the sorts done in the last two days and combine them into complete packs of absentee ballots for each precinct - with the exception of any “previously uncounted but valid ballots” that may be appear later.

The vote count will resume on Thursday at the Tukwila facility.

If you are wondering about the accuracy of the hand count, think for a minute about what we are doing.

The process is the equivalent of drawing a spreadsheet by hand. The spreadsheet has about 900,000 rows, each row representing a ballot, and 7 columns, one each for Gregoire, Rossi, Bennett, Write Ins, Under Votes, Over Votes, and Ballots for the Canvas Board. Then, once the 900,000 rows have been filled in by hand, each column is added by hand, except various portions of the rows are being separately added by 160 people, in 80 teams, and then combined at “data entry” stations. The term “data entry” helps create the illusion that there is some validity to the numbers being generated by this process.

My recount stats at this writing show no net change in Rossi's percentage lead. In other words, all of the ballots that have been added have fallen proportionally for both candidates as per their respective share of the vote in the machine recount in the reporting counties. If all of the new votes fall to both candidates as they did in the machine recount, Rossi's lead at the end will still be 0.0015% as it was in the machine recount. I calculate that the probability of a Rossi win, assuming a fair process with variations attributable only to chance, is now 94%. The above report and similar stories suggest that we may see an outcome in Ukraine County that cannot be attributed to either reliable counting or chance.

Posted by Stefan Sharkansky at December 14, 2004 07:10 PM | Email This
Comments
1. A neutral objective COMPETENT group should obtain access to all of Kings ballots, voter rolls, "data entry" records (with initials), etc. from this hand count and audit the results after this is all over. How that process is forced or who does the heavy lifting (and pays for it) I do not know but an honest expossure of what is actually happening down there by such an audit would put some closure to all this. That would be an appropriate way to start restoration of voter confidence. I wonder how many votes were cast by ineligible voters? Odds are way more than the margin of this race.

Posted by: zip on December 14, 2004 07:36 PM
2. It's a joke in this country. Nixon vs. Kennedy in 1960? Shoulda gone to Nixon. Gore vs. Bush and then Kerry vs. Bush this year? Stolen! And now Dino Rossi looks like he's going to get robbed of a just victory over Gregoire.

We deserve our bad government. Shame on us.

Posted by: David W. on December 14, 2004 07:39 PM
3. It's a joke in this country. Nixon vs. Kennedy in 1960? Shoulda gone to Nixon. Gore vs. Bush and then Kerry vs. Bush this year? Stolen! And now Dino Rossi looks like he's going to get robbed of a just victory over Gregoire.

We deserve our bad government. Shame on us.

Posted by: David W. on December 14, 2004 07:39 PM
4. It's a joke in this country. Nixon vs. Kennedy in 1960? Shoulda gone to Nixon. Gore vs. Bush and then Kerry vs. Bush this year? Stolen! And now Dino Rossi looks like he's going to get robbed of a just victory over Gregoire.

We deserve our bad government. Shame on us.

Posted by: David W. on December 14, 2004 07:39 PM
5. (Whistling while cleaning my garage) "What's this?!!? A pile of valid ballots?!?!?? I better get these things up to someone, somwhere!!!"

Ah well, fiction at its finest . . .

Posted by: Troy Colley on December 14, 2004 07:54 PM
6. Should the three postings in a row by David W of the same material be nullified as an "overvote"? If voting machine equipment can detect "overvotes" 99% or more of the time, can't the posting software for weblog's do the same thing?

Posted by: Richard Pope on December 14, 2004 08:01 PM
7. LOL Richard - they are obviously votes for Gregoire that are misplaced. Make it 280, please KC.

Posted by: CP on December 14, 2004 08:13 PM
8. is david w. cheating? bad cheater, shame on you.

Posted by: ray on December 14, 2004 08:33 PM
9. Now that it appears that the 577 + ? previously rejected ballots will likely end up being counted, isn't it past time to start scrutinizing the military ballots that have been previously rejected ? This will not happen though, until sufficient pressure has been applied to the MLK County Elections Board. It is obvious that they will not go out of their way to count military votes because they will fall mostly for Rossi. Also, has the legitimacy of every voter been checked in King County ? Of course not and therefore this hand count will not produce a valid result, let alone the human error/ but that could be corrected by counting over and over again until the same result is obtained twice in a row - Yeah right !

Oh yeah, there's also the case of the 400+ provisional ballots (all for Gregoire) that were allowed into the 1st recount, whose signatures have not been verified - have they ? 10,000 additional ballots that were found in the 1st recount and a number of other inconsistencies and "bending" of the rules here and there. The court case may have been lost by the Democrats, but the rules continue to be changed by the King County Elections board and the canvassing board (if they accept the 577+ ballots tomorrow). Do you think there will really be any significant reform of the election system in King County if Greg-Gore somehow gets in ? If you do, like PT Barnum says, there's a sucker born every minute...

There is one more recourse, if she overturns the previously certified result in this recount, which should really be overruled by the US Supreme Court, as it would be a copy of Bush vs. Gore (2000), and that is what happened in California earlier this year with the recall of Gray Davis and the election of Arnold Schwarzenegger as Governor. This would require a petition signed by 25% of the registered voters of this state - this is where the rubber would meet the road...I think these petitions would be ready to go in a surprisingly short time - if conditions warrant.

Posted by: Kim S. on December 14, 2004 08:44 PM
10. Yes there is always the recall road. I agree the petitions will be ready to go. Save your strength all it's going to be a bumpy ride.

Posted by: CP on December 14, 2004 08:54 PM
11. Lets get going on it. We can let it be a little gift to her on her inauguration.

Posted by: Julie on December 14, 2004 08:56 PM
12. What are the facts and evidence regarding these rejected military votes that I keep hearing about? If this is true, there could be additional recourse under federal law. But I have head nothing specific about this.

Posted by: Richard Pope on December 14, 2004 09:41 PM
13. Hate to burst your paranoid bubble, but you can only recall a governor in WA state for crimes and malfeasance committed in office.

And I have a question for y'all... do really think the 561 ballots are fraudulent, or are you just saying that they shouldn't be counted now, because they weren't counted the first time around?

Posted by: David Goldstein on December 14, 2004 09:41 PM
14. The point is; isn't this supposed to be a RE-count? How can it be a REcount if you keep adding votes?

Posted by: Dan on December 14, 2004 09:50 PM
15. Goldy - how about malfeasance GETTING into office? Even you can't think this doesn't stink.

Posted by: CP on December 14, 2004 09:54 PM
16. And I have a question for you, David. Do you think King county has behaved completely fairly and competently? Your one-sidedness clouds your judgement much like it clouds your math.

Posted by: David Silverstein on December 14, 2004 09:56 PM
17. The 561 add more fuel to the bonfire of distrust that Gregoire lit a few weeks ago (thousands of votes not counted; didn;t know about the lawsuit) and these screw ups have been fueling ever since. Based on how we got where we are, they don't pass the smell test. Doesn't mean they are fraudulent just that this late find is about the worst thing the County could have done as far as being credible. And credibility is what vote counting is all about.

This whole thing is turning into a joke. These jokers running King's elections ought to be fired then sued.

Posted by: zip on December 14, 2004 09:58 PM
18. IF and I do stress IF I just heard the news blurb right, KC just "found" MORE BALLOTS???

Posted by: Shane on December 14, 2004 10:01 PM
19. If the 'no signature on file' voters filled out their voter card _late_ wouldn't that explain why they weren't in the computer yet?

Is there a complete list of people that _did_ vote properly somewhere? And is there a public list of felons anywhere? Sigh.

Posted by: Al on December 14, 2004 10:15 PM
20. I'll be up in King County later this week acting as an observer. I'll be sure to take notes.

I figure it will be kind of like going to the zoo to watch all of the little Democrat monkeys busily trying to count accurately on their hands and toes and then place ballots into neat little piles.

You know they say that if you have enough Democrat monkeys counting the ballots millions of times, they will eventually produce a win for Gregoire.

Posted by: Jeff B on December 14, 2004 10:17 PM
21. Stefan, better stop posting your numbers! It's just telling the MetroKC vote scrounging org how many ballots they need to "find." You estimate they need 655 new votes, and they're currently up to 577? Better turn over some more rocks boys and girls! Maybe there's another 78 ballots underneath the driver's seat on the Monorail. And you known what, maybe a box of KC ballots just floated away down the Snoqualmie River over the weekend. Better count one of the other boxes twice to make up for them.

Posted by: (the other) John Hawkins on December 14, 2004 10:18 PM
22. We are democrat, you will be assimilated, resistance is futile.......sign over all your assets to Ron Sims and disburse to the streets for re education.......

Posted by: shane on December 14, 2004 10:20 PM
23. Zip, you pretty much sum it up.

I would like to see the Logan's job become elected, rather than appointed.

Posted by: South County on December 14, 2004 10:20 PM
24. Wait a minute.

Of the 1500 ballots, 561 have 'no signature on file'. (And there will be more, someone stopped at 'C' as Richard Pope points out.)


But.
In a pile of ballots _rejected_ for not meeting signature requirements, these are all of the ones with _no_ signature on file.

And... they are ALL VALID?!?!?

Wouldn't you expect some of the 'no signature on file' ballots to be people who not only weren't in the computer - but also didn't have a valid voter registration card in the first place? There's _zero_ of those in this pile? Really?

Have these 561 people been contacted by the media?

Posted by: Al on December 14, 2004 10:34 PM
25. OK, I heard it again. "More ballots just found", more at 11. Ch 5......does anyone know anything about this?

Posted by: shane on December 14, 2004 10:34 PM
26. We need to replace Logan with someone who has a little more integrity, like Tony Soprano.

Ok, ok, he may not be quite THAT bad, but he has proven himself to be grossly incompetent, at best.

He needs to go.

Posted by: Kevin S on December 14, 2004 10:39 PM
27. Shane - HOPEFULLY, they are talking about the 16 additional ballots "found" late this afternoon - bringing the NEW TO BE COUNTED (Not recounted) to 277. But I wouldn't stake my life on it, would you?

Posted by: CP on December 14, 2004 10:46 PM
28. Whoops - I meant 577! This is a stamina contast of last one standing.

Posted by: CP on December 14, 2004 10:49 PM
29. OH! Maybe that is it.........the teaser didnt specify and of course, its tough not to think the worst (like they actually DID find a bunch of ballots under the drivers seat of the monorail)!

Well, I WAS going to bed early, but now I'm staying up to see .............

Posted by: shane on December 14, 2004 10:51 PM
30. The MSM reports say that the signatures were not on file, and that the election workers will just go back and look them up using the original paper records.

What if there is no paper record for a particular voter?

What if the paper record for that voter is out of date, wrong address, etc.?

Will King County check for these possibilities? If so, we should expect to see a total number of counted votes that is less than the 561 or 577 or whatever the number. It is statistically likely that at least some of these voters were not properly registered, changed address, etc. but voted anyway.

Is there anyone checking for any of these situations, or is it truly just count every vote found?

Posted by: Jeff B. on December 14, 2004 10:51 PM
31. Just out of Dennis Bounds mouth.........
"A new election surpirise, more ballots have JUST(his emphasis) been found, coming up next on..........

Posted by: shane on December 14, 2004 10:58 PM
32. They are talking about 22 ballots? I assume that those are the same ballots that CP was talking about?

Posted by: shane on December 14, 2004 11:03 PM
33. Let's see. The news just started - First story, robbers stealing Christmas wreaths off graves in the cemetary. . . Second story, fatality on Highway 99. . . Third story, bomb threat stops ferries. . . Fourth story. . . Thief steals classified info on computer regarding bio-agents. . . Fifth story . . . NEW 22 ballots found in King County in bottom of filing cabinet - new count 599. Had enough! Sweet dreams.

Posted by: CP on December 14, 2004 11:07 PM
34. Jeff B, these jokers are making it up as they go along.

Posted by: zip on December 14, 2004 11:11 PM
35. Hehe, lol, we are gonna win, you are gonna lose... just the way it should be.

Posted by: Sha on December 14, 2004 11:17 PM
36. Bottom of file cabinet? What happened to SEALED ballots? What the hell is going on?

Posted by: CP on December 14, 2004 11:18 PM
37. Look, your post assumes that everything breaks the same, but look at the trend. Rossi started with 360 or so ahead of Gregoire, then 42, and now, probably about a 300 vote lead by Gregoire is my guess.

Rossi against Cantwell? I hope so :) That way we can expose this Bush-lite fella for what he is.

Posted by: Sha on December 14, 2004 11:19 PM
38. What's going on CP is that you are getting your butt kicked, and I'm enjoying it. You are in the minority, and if you don't like it, move to Tejas.

Posted by: Sha on December 14, 2004 11:21 PM
39. Zip, the only thing that's getting made up right now, in the writing, is the concession speech by Rossi. Remember, we don't like poor losers, and Rossi needs to take the ass-kicking by Gregoire like a man if he wants a future in politics in this state.

Rossi, bendover and take it like a Repug.

Posted by: Sha on December 14, 2004 11:23 PM
40. CP, the fat lady has yet to sing...oh, I guess she's not fat, is she?

They are getting very sloppy... keep watching.

Posted by: Julie on December 14, 2004 11:25 PM
41. I just want to know if they'll decide they _have_ to count a box of "ballots" if they tripped over them on the street in front of the counting facility.

Posted by: Al on December 14, 2004 11:26 PM
42. Sha - Go back to stealing the Christmas wreaths off graves.

Posted by: CP on December 14, 2004 11:29 PM
43. How can THEY help it if some of the ballots just didn't exactly flow through the same uhm legal..."channels"...we can't discriminate, can we? Of course, those nasty bad republicans, they want to discriminate against ALL the ballots they don't like...like the illegal ones, the ones that weren't originally counted and all that...because Republicans are just so UPTIGHT. All those demonrats want to do is count EVERY ballot. Wasn't that what poor Pauly was crying about?

Posted by: Julie on December 14, 2004 11:31 PM
44. Julie - They couldn't make this up - it's going beyond ludicrous.

Posted by: CP on December 14, 2004 11:37 PM
45. some of you people actually think that SOMETHING IS ACTUALLY GOING TO BE DONE about this shabby thief of an election....Sims will not be held responsible..he'll probably get a raise and a promotion....

its not....don't hold your breath.....the Democrat party has enough crooked brain-dead people in the system to pull this crap off every year....

I don't want Rossi to run against Cantwell....

we need to find someone else...

Cantwell only won by about 2000 votes last time and nothing was done about it...not even when she pulled that off in the last minute of the last day....with those oh-so-lucky "provisional votes" that the RAts get from the passing trash thru our state...

I guess what we need is to get Republicans to be as crooked as the RAts....

Posted by: lee on December 14, 2004 11:58 PM
46. This is unreal. I certainly hope some Republican lawyer somewhere is preparing to file a lawsuit to prevent the introduction of new ballots into what the State Supreme Court has already ruled is supposed to be a retabulation, not a recanvassing.

Posted by: Jason on December 15, 2004 12:10 AM
47. Ok - this is getting out of hand. Can't the Republican Lawyers file a suit now instead of after the "recount" to stop this nonsense? If King County is really this sloppy (instead of fraudulent), then the whole King County Election department should be fired. You just don't misplace this many ballots!!!!

Posted by: M on December 15, 2004 01:10 AM
48. I totally agree, it is time for continued legal action. If the Democrats in King county election department cannot manage the votes any better than this they deserve to have their whole department defeated not only before the state supreme court, but before the federal supreme court. Someone's heads should roll in the King county vote maufacturing factory, and it could not be too soon for this voter! It is TIME TO STAND UP AND BE COUNTED!

Posted by: Greg on December 15, 2004 01:48 AM
49. sha,

your morally bankrupt! the dems are stealing an election. adding newly discovered votes to the requested recall vote is cheating. yeh! lets change the rules of the game to win. yep, the great standard bearer of moral integrity continues to be demostrated by a party that has lost all historical moral bearing that it once stood upon. win at all cost.

Posted by: ray on December 15, 2004 05:37 AM
50.

Here’s the theory: The Republicans claimed, early on, that any recount that resulted in Gregoire winning would be caused by Democrat cheating (one way or the other).

By repeating this mantra, using all sorts of presumed scenarios, consistently, artfully and often, they have created, among many, a feeling that a Gregoire victory would certainly be a result of malicious play.

This is brilliant PR – create a false end result presumption, stay on message and repeat at all opportunties. This technique is powerful and often successful.

Kudos to the PR machine to create and deliver the “Gregorie Wins means Democrats Cheat” message.

Almost as brilliant as Rove getting gay marriage on the ballot in closely contested states….

This process would be more interesting if the democrats were even a tad bit close on executing message strategy. Without it, it's a walk for the Rs!

Posted by: tom on December 15, 2004 06:07 AM
51. Personally, if it is NOT fraud, I think all this "finding of ballots" in King County just goes to show the county is WAY too big. They can't handle their responsibilities in election.

It is time to split the county up into smaller, more manageable, parts. Cedar County anyone?

Posted by: Sarah Schreffler on December 15, 2004 06:58 AM
52. Ray--The party of Richard Daley was never one of great historical moral bearing. :-)

The Dems are going to win this one, and lawsuits won't overturn it. It's inevitable, and probably has been from the beginning. The laughable thing is the screw-up during the first recount--who miscounted and manufactured 42 votes shy of what was needed?

Obviously the GOTV effort by the Republican party needs to be strengthened in this state. Rossi was a good candidate, unlike some of the ones that were run in earlier gubernatorial races. I'm hopeful that he will run again.

The King County election office is not going to be punished for this, they're going to be celebrated! Why shouldn't they be? They turned a major loss for the Dems into a win--do you think Dem-run state government sees what happened in King County as anything but wildly positive? The Sec of State will put up a fuss, but he can't act alone.

The biggest mistake the Republicans can make right now is to spend the next four years whining about this. This isn't the first election affected by fraud, and it won't be the last. That's life in politics. The Republican mistake was not doing more to GOTV.

If Dino runs again in four years, I'm confident that Gregoire's fabulous administrative and leadership skills will make stealing the next race too difficult even for King County.

Posted by: Julie B. on December 15, 2004 07:10 AM
53. I return to a point I made in a previous post: King County should be required to submit their results to the SecState first. Even though I would hate to see Rossi lose in what is at best very questionable circumstances, I would hate to see the Republican party sue. Gregoire will have a clouded victory and will not be able to gain any bi-partisan support. And King County has been shown to be totally incompetent as public stewards.

Posted by: RogerA on December 15, 2004 08:29 AM
54. This State if going to go the way of California - pre-Arnold. And all of us are going to suffer. I say we fight this. I think Dino will.

Posted by: CP on December 15, 2004 10:46 AM
55. yes...fight now....fight, fight , fight..

this is btotal corruption, everybody knows it....

let's stop saying that its just a "mistake" or its just bad management...

all votes not included in the first vote should not be included now, even the poor ballots that someone "forgot" or the ones that were just waiting for the "approval" from the election board...

they should all be tossed...no chain of command for most of them...

look what we have to show for Gorton not contesting the election last time...and its the same process this time...

Passivity must go....we must be lions!!!

Posted by: lee on December 15, 2004 11:21 AM
56. Ahnold for President!

Posted by: tom on December 15, 2004 01:11 PM
57. Aha. Now you Republicans know what it feels like when you see that the unabashedly pro-Bush Sec'ies of State of Florida and Ohio certify election results, the manufacture of voting machine promises to deliver his home state for the incumbent, and a U.S. Supreme Court Justice doesn't recuse himself from a case even though his son works for the firm defending the Republican presidential campaign.

It makes you nervous, huh? It makes you cringe. Whether there actually is/was wrong-doing here in KingCounty, in Florida, in Ohio, are questions that are difficult to answer. But now you know how it feels.

I actually feel sorry for Rossi, because NO candidate has to be put through this shit. Even though I didn't vote for him, I'm sorta hoping he wins.

Posted by: Larry Tempelman on December 15, 2004 03:57 PM
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