December 09, 2004
Another Guesstimate On Distributed Vote Fraud

In this post, I described the problem of "distributed vote fraud" and in this following post, I gave it that name.   (If you missed those posts, what I mean by "distributed vote fraud" is the illegal votes cast by individual voters, acting separately, not illegal votes cast by a party official or a candidate.   Our lax election laws make some such votes inevitable.)

Because these illegal votes are seldom detected, and the people who cast them almost never prosecuted, there are no good estimates on their total number in Washington state, or anywhere else.

I gave my own guesstimate on the extent of the problem in Washington state in the first post; in my opinion, somewhere between 1 in a 100 and 1 in a 1000 Washington votes are illegal.  For a number of reasons, explained in my first post, I believe that that the illegal votes are about 2 to 1 Democratic.  That would mean that a typical Democratic candidate in Washington state would have a net gain of somewhere between 1,000 and 10,000 votes from this distributed vote fraud.

Yesterday, I heard talk show host (and one time Republican gubernatorial candidate) John Carlson give his own guesstimate on the size of the problem.  He said that, were only legitimate votes counted, Republican Dino Rossi would have a lead of not 42 or 45 votes, but 5,000 votes, in the race for governor.  Carlson did not explain this, other than to say that he thought that many non-citizens were voting.  If, like me, he thinks that illegal votes go to the Democrats by a 2 to 1 margin, then he thinks that 1 in 200 votes cast in Washington state are illegal.

Many Republicans are aware of this problem; almost no Democrats are, or at least will admit to being aware of the problem.  (A few, of course, see it not as a problem, but as part of the solution.)   Yesterday, I also heard talk show host (and losing Democratic congressional candidate) Dave Ross assert that no one was claiming that there was vote fraud in Washington's gubernatorial election.  This shows, assuming Ross was being honest, that he doesn't listen to many Republicans.

Cross posted at Jim Miller on Politics.

(Those who are bothered by my guesstimate should read this disclaimer.)

Posted by Jim Miller at December 09, 2004 08:28 AM | Email This
Comments
1. The estimate in Florida in 2000 was that 5,000 felons illegally voted, out of about 6 million or so votes cast. Florida registers voters by party status, and 75% of those felons were registered Democrats.

http://www.adversity.net/florida/Frame_Fla_Stories/Florida_Felons.htm

However, in Florida, a felon has a life-long ban on voting, unless restored by executive clemency. In Washington, a felon can have voting rights restored more or less automatically one to three years after being released from prison, provided that all fines and restitution are paid. (A very large percentage of felons never pay their fines and restitution, even though this amount is often the minimum $500 allowed by law.)

I don't know what steps Washington takes to make sure that felons are purged from the voter rolls and stay purged. When someone is convicted of a felony, the superior court clerk is supposed to send a copy of the sentence to the appropriate county auditor, who is supposed to purge the voter registration (if any). However, I am not aware of anything that would keep the felon from registering or re-registering once they are out of prison, even if there rights have not been restored. There also does not appear to be any system to keep track of persons who were convicted of felonies in other states.

As for non-citizens voting, there is no requirement to provide any proof of citizenship when registering to vote. There is an identity proof requirement (either at in-person registration, or otherwise when voting the first time). However, almost any form of ID will do, and this ID (say driver's license or state ID card) is equally available to citizens, legal residents, foreign visitors, and illegal aliens alike.

It is anyone's guess as to how many non-citizens voted in Washington, since there is no obvious way to track this information.

Posted by: Richard Pope on December 9, 2004 10:06 AM
2. I don't understand...perhaps it's my limited mental capacity being diminished since I became a conservative (I was obviously smarter when I was a liberal). How can people cheat (not how as in logistically, just how as in the gall)? I just find it so ridiculous.

For one thing, you've got to have some cojones to do so knowingly. I'd be sweating buckets if I even thought of doing something illegal.

And if you're so dumb (or lazy) as to not vote properly, your vote shouldn't count! I admit...I'm lazy sometimes and I wonder if some of my votes in the past haven't counted. Maybe I forgot to date it or signed it wrong or whatever. But you know what? It's MY fault. So don't count my vote. Who am I to be so special that if I don't follow the rules I get to complain?

I'm sickened by this whole thing. I hope the Dems live with this shame for years to come in WA. My mom is feeling pretty guilty about voting for Gregoire now...as I hope most D's are.

Posted by: Megs on December 9, 2004 10:08 AM
3. I realize this is a forum for comments, not activism, persay - but can anyone tell me how as a group of citizens, we could go about ensuring that only eligible voters are allowed to register, and then vote - in our elections?

If that is ever accomplished, and dems still win in this state, I will be seriously shocked.

Posted by: Julie on December 9, 2004 10:17 AM
4. Julie, one way would be the dreaded Initiative process. Where we write decent protections for our state ID card (Driver's License) then require that for voting.

After two trips to the State Supreme Court ("You used the word 'and'!!! any sentence containing 'and' has two subjects!") either the legislature would pass something that appeared reasonable but would be abused in practice, or we might get something reasonable. Maybe.

Posted by: Al on December 9, 2004 10:32 AM
5. It's worse than you thought, folks. i was told by an election official at King County that even if you are not registered to vote, state law says that you may vote! I'm assuming they suppose that it will be picked up and caught somewhere along the way, but you and I know better. I'd heard of a case this year where someone actually came up to a precinct, admitted to not being registered, and being given a provisional ballot anyway, along with a registration form. This is absurd. But state law allows it. It made me realize that this is but one reason why it takes so long for ballots to be counted after election day. This law should be changed. It only makes sense. If you admit to not being registered, you should NOT be given a ballot to gum up the works and slow things down. Governor Rossi will hopefully change this idiotic law no doubt put in place by democrats who could only want it in order to increase vote fraud as much as possible!

Posted by: Michele Sackman on December 9, 2004 10:32 AM
6. as to your analysis, GIGO. As to Carlson's analysis, more evidence for why he lost so badly.

Posted by: Steve on December 9, 2004 10:32 AM
7. As an election poll watcher on 11/2 in Thurston County I observed one woman who came in, admitted to having already mailing in her absentee ballot, but wanted a provisional ballot because she thought she'd forgotten to vote for some of the positions...can we say DUH!

Neither votes should count because there are two ballots...which one would you count? I just hope that both got thrown out. There wasn't anything I could do to stop her, but I wrote down everything I heard her say. Arg!

Posted by: megs on December 9, 2004 12:07 PM
8. The idea of "distributed vote fraud" is not new but it is new to give it a name. It is a shame that in many parts of the country a certain level of vote fraud is just accepted as something that cannot be corrected. That is a terrible attitude because every time officials and party leaders accept the idea of fraud then they are accepting the idea that it is OK to diulte the votes of legal voters. Even unintentional vote fraud can make a difference in a local race for school board member or other close races. The race for president in Florida in 2000 or the race for governor in Washington in 2004 are so unusual in terms of very close results with millions of votes cast that they force us to examine again the accuracy of the counting process. Unless that process is as good as we can make it, then the legitimacy of the eletoral process is in doubt. What is crazy here is that we just do not spend the money required to make it a first rate counting system. Our computers can balance billions of dollars in checking accounts every single night but we don't place a high enough value on elections to get the best machinery possible to count votes.

Posted by: Mark Rhoads on December 9, 2004 12:13 PM
9. I maintain, IMO, that Gorton actually won his race against Cantwell....but no cahones to fight that fight, I guess.....and its not that I loved Gorton or anything, but geesh, why didn't he show some guts?

as long as we have the leftist MSM and we have the state legislatures controlled by the Democrat party, then there will be no changes in voting...why would they?....they have managed to control the state for so long now...

however, if we could district by district, retake the state legislature, and I think that is possible, fortifying the voting process should be a mandate...

what about a state referendum?.......can't imagine anyone not being in favor of making sure OUR citizens are the ones voting.....

Posted by: Lee on December 9, 2004 12:51 PM
10. I think anything that could happen, should happen NOW. While the iron is hot. Apathy sets in quickly.

Popular opinion seems to be against Tim Eyman, but who else can do the things he's managed to do?

Posted by: Julie on December 9, 2004 12:55 PM
11. Of course there was fraud. The safeguards we have to stop fraud are almost non-existent. In an election as charged as the one we just had, people were being coaxed and transported to the polls in every way possible. Moat likely, some illegal immigrants that are not too fluent in English were not even aware that it is illegal for them to vote. They were simply told, go here and vote.

We definitely need security and authentication reforms before any future elections. What is so fantastic is that yet again, the screams and wails of the Democrats that every vote must count, will end up having backfired.

There will be much more scrutiny over future elections, and the losers will be the Democrats in that much of their strategy is simply to convince people how they should vote with rock concerts, youth rallies, church sermons, etc. A persuaded voter is not the same as a voter making the conscious action to vote for themselves. People who make the conscious action to vote will always be more careful about how they vote. And as a whole, they will likely pass the more secure future election safeguards.

Posted by: Jeff B. on December 9, 2004 03:07 PM
12. Richard Pope is right about the felons in Florida. Two Democratic newspapers (the Miami Herald and the Palm Beach Post) did counts by comparing computerized lists of voters and felons, and found about that number. (That's probably a minimum, since some felons would have changed their names enough not to show up.)

The one real effort I know of to count non-citizen votes came after the disputed 1996 Dornan-Sanchez election in California. Congressional investigators found that 624 non-citizens had voted -- and that nearly 2500 were registered in a single congressional district.

Mark Rhoads is right that distributed election fraud is not new. I can think of precedents that are hundreds of years old. But I do think that it has become a much larger problem since the 1993 passage of the "Motor Voter" Act and similar measures.

Like Lee, I long have suspected that Gorton actually defeated Cantwell -- if only legal ballots were counted. The margin in that race is, you may recall, in the middle of my guesstimate range. There's an ironical detail: Cantwell co-sponsored the Motor Voter Act in 1993, when she was representing my 1st district.

I would have advised Gorton not to contest the election, however, because the cost, monetary and political, would have been prohibitive. That, to me, is the most infuriating aspect of distributed vote fraud. Often the cheated candidate has no realistic recourse.

As for Steve, I am hoping that he will raise the millions it would take to investigate the extent of this problem -- or join us in backing reforms to reduce its sized. And I think he should at least consider the point I make at the end of my disclaimer: Many Democratic officials act as if they believe that distributed vote fraud gives them a worthwhile advantage.

Posted by: Jim Miller on December 9, 2004 03:58 PM
13. Thanks for the offer Jim, but I decline. I don't think this is a problem that on a cost-benefit analysis warrants the amount of time and money that it would take to solve it. In most major elections, a swing of a few hundred (or thousand) votes makes no difference. In those that are within the margin of error, I can frankly live with whomever the winner is. I voted for Gregoire, but if Dino wins (and I think he will), he has my best wishes and hopefully as governor he will be the candidate he portrayed himself as and not the one the R apparatchiks on this board hope he'll be.

Posted by: steve on December 9, 2004 05:37 PM
Post a comment
Name:


Email Address:


URL:


Comments:


Remember info?