What do the Democrats call it when a Republican wins a vote count and is also the presumptive winner of the recount? The Democrats call it a "tie":
OLYMPIA, Wash. -- Republican Dino Rossi kept his razor-thin lead in the Washington governor's race as counties faced a Wednesday deadline for recounting 2.8 million ballots - and girded for yet another possible recount.When is a "tie" not a tieBoth political parties were poised to request a rare hand recount if they don't like Wednesday's results. That count would take until nearly Christmas to complete.
"It looks like that's the only way we'll ever break this tie," state Democratic Party Chairman Paul Berendt said Tuesday.
Dino Rossi is currently leading by 287 votes. The only county which hasn't reported yet is King, which favored Gregoire by a margin of 17.7%.
Tim Goddard's analysis of voting machines suggests that the King County automatic recount is expected to produce 128 new votes. These are expected to go to Gregoire with a 17.7% margin, for a net gain of 23 votes, leaving Rossi with a 264 vote lead. Then there are the 710 surgically enhanced haruspex votes. In order for these votes to wipe out Rossi's lead, they would have to go to Gregoire by a 37% margin (67% - 30%, instead of the 58% - 40% margin in the first count). That's a tall order.
Should the Democrats overcome this mathemtical hurdle in the King County recount, it would be interesting to figure out how they beat the laws of probability. On the other hand, if they don't overcome these hurdles (i.e. they lose) but refuse to concede, it would be interesting to hear their explanation why they insist it is still a "tie".
UPDATE. One of my friends who's been observing the King County recount reports that "there are no more Canvass Board meetings scheduled in King County, except to certify the results". A report is expected late Wednesday morning or early afternoon. My friend adds portentously:
After observing many, many ballots, one conclusion I may draw is that Republicans tend to follow the instructions on the ballots, while Democrats ignore them. I do not believe that the "enhanced" ballots will break in the 58% to 40% ratio.One can only wonder what other election rules same Democrats tend to ignore. Posted by Stefan Sharkansky at November 23, 2004 09:19 PM | Email This
Whitman has official results posted...
Bring on King County... latest postings still show the King County Canvassing Board not set to meet until 3pm Wednesday...
Posted by: Jim King on November 23, 2004 11:11 PMKing County Elections spokeswoman Bobbie Egan said that results are due early this afternoon.
Secretary of State Sam Reed will announce the statewide results of the recount at 4:15 p.m. today.
Posted by: Jim King on November 23, 2004 11:48 PMKitsap County, which had one disputed ballot to send to its canvassing board today, hasn't reported its recount. Whitman County did its recount but has three ballots to review today. But neither of those counties is likely to put much of a dent in Rossi's lead.
Posted by: Jim King on November 24, 2004 12:15 AMSince it is a 'tie', it's an even bet that the D's will insist on a manual recount...unless Gregoire manages to summon the moral courage to do what even John Kerry did and throw in the towel.
Posted by: Kevin S on November 24, 2004 12:21 AMI think Baghdad Bob has re-emerged in Paul Berendt! Or he's a consultant! It's getting silly.
Speaking of the real one, did you know he once said, "Who are in control, they are not in control of anything - they don't even control themselves!"
You can go HERE, as in "We Love the Iraqi Information Minister"
for more insane quotes. And HERE, for the latest update - I'm now on Edition 6 . Edition 5.82 discusses briskly the Baghdad Bob Berendt situation!
Make sure you also read your Seattle Times today!
Posted by: Josef on November 24, 2004 07:50 AMMay be leaks before then, but that will be the official action.
Posted by: Jim King on November 24, 2004 09:07 AMAll of this whining about "every vote counting" etc. is just the Democrats trying to sway the election. One can infer from the comments of the observer friend that Shark has at the canvassing board that many Democrats are simply voting at the urging of their intellectual masters. Voting, being something that they do not usually do, or do not take seriously, becomes a difficult process with many failing to follow the simple ballot instructions. If these so called voters did indeed care about voting, then they would have no trouble getting to the correct precinct or following the instructions and properly filling our their ballots.
I'm sure there were many Democratic voters that truly believed in the issues they were voting for, were well educated and took the time to read the instructions and vote properly. But the academic and media intellectuals on the left are not really interested in the thinking voters, they are interested in the kind of voters that they can sway with emotion and fear and somehow coax or transport to the polls regardless of whether or not they know how or care to vote, simply to get their votes on the Democratic side. Even to the nth recount, the Democrats will be srutinizing the "intent" of these inept voters to try and find every last Democratic vote in the pool of improperly cast ballots.
This is the real and Democrat meaning of "every vote counts."
If that ratio is applied to the 710 remakes, Gregoire gets 462, Rossi 227, and Bennett 21.
That results in a net gain of 235 for Gregoire...cutting Rossi's lead to 52 votes.
So, if Gregoire were to gain another 50 votes, as you speculate, then it would be a close call indeed.
I'm hoping it won't be this bad...this assessment seems to me to be the best case scenario for Gregoire.
I think Dino will hold on...but ever so narrowly.
Posted by: Kevin S on November 24, 2004 09:35 AMIf voter intent is unclear, the ballot is supposed to go to the canvassing board for review. However, this depends on the election officials having enough integrity to send it there in the first place.
Needless to say, this can be quite a subjective process. In some counties, we have officials that are more fair and impartial, others may be less so.
If this gets into another recount, this one by hand, there's no telling what may result.
Posted by: Kevin S on November 24, 2004 10:05 AMTruly, literally tied?
Unlikely, I know...but not impossible.
Posted by: Kevin S on November 24, 2004 10:11 AMShould this drag out past noon, January 12, 2005- thus, should there be a vacancy in the office of Governor- Lt. Governor Brad Owen would fill in until the issues are settled.
Posted by: Jim King on November 24, 2004 10:31 AMRossi is +325 now with 64.65% recounted. 2 to go.
Posted by: bmvaughn on November 24, 2004 10:39 AMAnd, I believe seniors are just as capable of understanding the instructions as anyone else.
Posted by: Kevin S on November 24, 2004 11:01 AMI'll quote directly from the Pierce County Ballot. "TO VOTE, connect the arrow with a single line pointing to your choice(s) like this:
Seems like pretty simply instructions to me. There's even a little picture of what the filled in arrow should look like. And as the instructions say, if you make a mistake, you can get another ballot. Also, the precinct workers are there to help. If you don't understand the instructions, you can ask for help. If a person is voting absentee, there are numbers you can call to ask for help.
Computer scanning is designed to recognize either the lines or bubbles, even if they are not filled in perfectly. If the voter makes even the most basic attempt to fill in the line or the circle, the machine will read it almost every single time.
Trying to blame the voting process or defend incompetent voters by accusing it of being complex is craven.
Posted by: Jeff B on November 24, 2004 11:18 AMMother Rose-shaky voice and hand, had a lot of problems in the last years of her voting life. Very shakey, tried hard but just looked terribly untidy, like scribbles.
Of course the republicrats don't have that proble with their aged, and I hear no near creeping blindness either. Lucky, lucky folk- all prime Aryans.
Sorry to say- they sound very mean spirited, lashing out wildly in the face of reason and good government.- and politically constipated to boot........not a finishing school tem, but OK here, troublingly anal retentive.
Rossi needs to get those ears clipped, dress up the little wife a bit and keep in the game. Young and virle, plenty of cash even in the bad business state he made it big, millions, I hear. That is the American way. JK
Posted by: jackie kennedy on November 24, 2004 11:18 AMFor recounts, not really true. From the FAQs on the SoS webpage (www.sectate.wa.gov): Q: What is a recount? A: "A recount is the process where the counties simply re-tabulate all the ballots that were counted in the original count. In the original count, final determinations are made by the county canvassing boards on what votes will be counted. The recount does not allow a review of decisions by the county canvassing boards of what constitutes a vote. Thus, the same ballots counted in the original count will simply be recounted."
As I have said before, this ought to be obvious to folks who can conceive of a difference between hand and machine re-counting (or who wish to hold KC to its own rules rather than allow them do do whatever they want to include illegal ballots in their total). And its codified in law, as well - the Washington Code is explicit about how to determine the validity of votes during the original count. BUT NOT THE RECOUNT - there is little definition of recounting except for the winning margin requirements for machine or hand recounting and the provision to allow a hand recount at the expense of the party requesting it.
According to today's Seattle Times, KC elections did not perform the process of determining which votes were valid during the original count. Other counties with optical scanning did, and that is why they were able to do quick recounts with small changes. So KC can't even follow its own rules, and now that the vote is close, it is applying election-night counting rules to the recount, ostensibly to "make every vote count."
Posted by: srogers on November 24, 2004 11:30 AMYou say the Republicans are mean-spirited and lashing out wildly....yet you call them 'Aryans'? Hello, pot, this is the kettle calling - you're black! YOU are a hypocrite, JK!
Then you make comments about Dino's physical appearance and his wife. How sweet of you. You are so objective and non-judgmental. NOT!
Furthermore, you might want to learn how to spell, okay? It's RUBBISH, and it's LOSING, and it's....oh, man, I can't even correct them all. Your spelling is horrible, your grammer and syntax is worse. Get an education, okay?
Reason and good government? You wouldn't know them even if they did exist in the current Washington State administration.
Peace out
Posted by: Larry on November 24, 2004 11:39 AMgrammar :)
Posted by: bmvaughn on November 24, 2004 11:42 AMKing County officials seem to be continuing its tradition of contributing a fatal dose of incompetence at the nerve center of democracy - the electoral process.
Posted by: Patrick on November 24, 2004 11:46 AMWhen this is over, it would be interesting to start a blog topic about why people take this all so personally. It's only the governor of Washington for four years. It's not like life as we know it is going to end depending on the outcome of this election.
Posted by: Steven on November 24, 2004 11:59 AMA typical example of of a ballot that would be remade was where someone connected the write in arrow and then proceeded to write in the name of one of the candidates listed above. Don't ask me what these folks were thinking.
Others had really faint, squiggly marks between arrows, most were interpreted by the election officials, a few were sent to canvass.
Some folks felt compelled to connect the bar codes at the top of the ballot...these had to be remade.
This whole process was observed throughout by partisans of both sides, and the Pierce people were fair.
Under the circumstances, it was the best that could be hoped for. That's not to say I like that system, but it was what we had to work with.
Posted by: Kevin S on November 24, 2004 11:59 AMCongrats to the King Co. GOP observers for keeping them (mostly) honest up there.
Posted by: Kevin S on November 24, 2004 01:30 PM