When I was in high school in Nevada, my friend's mother, Patty Cafferata, was state treasurer. In her first election, she won by a single vote. A recount reproduced the result. Her opponent sued, but the judge threw the case out, confirming there is no minimum margin of victory.
Assuming the gubinatorial recount confirms Rossi's win, he'll have won by a similarly narrow margin. Even if Gregoire concedes without a lawsuit, expect the Democrats to make an issue out of the closeness of the vote. They gained seats in both the state house and senate, and will claim they, rather than Rossi, have the mandate to set the agenda over the next two years. The mainstream media will be on their side.
But any victory no matter how narrow carries a mandate for a governor -- especially one running, like Rossi, on a program of change. It will be up to us, the citizens of the state, to remind our legislators and the press of that. Now would be a good time to review Rossi's announcement speech. His two big priorities are putting people back to work and reforming the state government. We can assist him by writing to newspapers, calling legislators and keeping the pressure on through blogs.
This election has shown that the people can take control of the state back from special interests. To keep it, we will need to work just as hard every day as we did to get it. Only then can we preserve our margin of victory.
It should be noted that, although Democrats have a two seat majority in the State Senate, one of those Democrats (Tim Sheldon) is an out-of-the-closet Dinocrat, and several others supported Dino's budget in 2003, and have a warm working relationship with Rossi. Even more have already made it clear that their desire is to work WITH the new Governor for the good of the state.
It is not a fantasy to suggest that there will be a pro-Administration majority in the Senate, on many of the most significant issues that need to be tackled. The balance of power lies with those who helped craft and pass the 2003 budget.
Posted by: Jim King on November 18, 2004 06:18 AMSecond, can your or your any knowledgeable local reader give us some color on the recount process, especifically its "margin-changing" characteristics.
For example:
Are recounts zero sum games, only verifying correctness of the allocation of reported votes? Or can new votes be added? If so, what kinds: late receipt of mailed ballots? votes "newly found"?
Even if zero-sum, does WA have voting procedures that allow for FL-type "interpretation" of intenet, etc.
I know previous recounts have never changed and outcome but have varied by more than Rossi's lead? Does the history of previous recounts teach us anything applicable to this? Do recounts systematically increase vote margin of the original winner? Does party of candidate reliably explain whether a recount would increase or decrease vote share?
Thanks
Posted by: Curious Out of Stater on November 18, 2004 06:29 AMThere are obviously many other issues and appointments that will be of major importance over the next while but the commencement of those issues above are, in my opinion, at the top of the list.
Posted by: Bill on November 18, 2004 08:09 AMI didn't vote for Gregoire Lite. I voted for Dino Rossi to save our state, to unify our state and to tell the extremists (like State Senator Val Stevens) where to get off.
Josef
Posted by: Josef on November 18, 2004 08:16 AMBut any victory no matter how narrow carries a mandate for a governor
I would like to respectfully say that, that is a load of crap.
I was waiting for that mandate bullshit to start. This was an excruciatingly close election between a pro-business Democrat and a pro-business Republican, regardless of who won. If Gregoire picks up 300 votes in the recount and wins by a handful, are you going to come out and say that she has a mandate? Of course not.
This is a closely divided nation and a closely divided state, and you know what, it's downright offensive to those of us on the losing side to be told that our will should be ignored entirely when we lose an election by a fraction of a percentage point. A piece of friendly advice... this overreaching may net some short term political gains, but in the long run it will destroy your fragile majority.
Posted by: David Goldstein on November 18, 2004 08:26 AMI also just posted on David's blog, "I AM worried that RMK & Dino may be tempted to disregard the McKennarats & Dinocrats who came to their rescue. I know I didn’t elect Gregoire Lite and I didn’t elect Val Stevens Lite either. I elected Rob McKenna & Dino Rossi as whom they campaigned as."
I want Dino to implement his agenda alright, but with moderation.
Posted by: Josef on November 18, 2004 08:46 AMIt's hilarious!
Posted by: Josef on November 18, 2004 08:48 AMI'm no stranger to tight elections, and I know what nail-biters they can be. Here in California my wife beat an incumbent to win a seat on the Simi Valley (home of the Ronald Reagan library) City Council in 1990 by 347 votes. But we were up till 3 AM waiting for each precinct to come in, as her margin would alternately shrink and grow. I was tracking it on a spreadsheet on my Atari computer as I tried to project whether the other two candidates (who were very close) would overtake us. And then we had to wait a week for the late absentee ballots to be counted before we were sure of the victory.
In 2000 a very close friend of ours ran for the Park District board. There were 5 candidates for 3 seats, and she started out in 3rd place in the initial absentee ballots. Then she fell to fourth at the end of election night. A week later the absentees were counted, and she hadn't closed the gap enough, so we figured it was over. Then two weeks later they finished with the provisional ballots, and she had edged into third place by 3 votes (out of about 95,000 cast). Naturally there was a recount, which I took part in as an observer. (All this was going on at the same time as the Florida mess, but in our county they did things much better and had no problems with hanging chads.) After six days of recounting, our friend had increased her margin to 5 votes and the fourth-place candidate threw in the towel. (The person demanding a recount has to pay for it, unless the recount goes in his favor. The recount can be called off at any time, but it must go to completion for the result to change. At $1200 per day, he had had enough. Since the recount wasn't completed, the official margin reverted to 3 votes.)
An extremely close election is something you never want to go through. But if you do go through it, and you win, it's something to savor.
Posted by: Daniel Wiener on November 18, 2004 08:53 AMA victory won on the basis of a clear platform is called a mandate.
If anyone from the left feels a need to lecture on overreaching, please call Ron Sims office...
Posted by: South County on November 18, 2004 09:16 AMThe relevant information can be found at the Secretary of State's website.
A useful summary: the only ballots counted in a recount are the ones that were counted originally. No new ballots get added. On the other hand, when counting large numbers there will inevitably be errors and variation. Previous recounts have shifted margins of victory by not inconsiderable amounts (say, more than 261 votes).
Those of us here in Washington will likely remain on edge until the recount is completed on Wednesday.
Posted by: Nathan Azinger on November 18, 2004 09:50 AMThere is another way to get a mandate.
Lose an election (2002), become the minority, and claim a mandate to block every appointment or legislation your heart desires.
This was called the Tom Daschle/Democratic Party Mandate (with help from Murray and Cantwell).
Posted by: Curious Out of Stater on November 18, 2004 09:53 AMIn the contest between Bonker (D) and Reed (R), Bonker picked up 95 votes and Reed lost 172, for a net gain of 267 for Bonker.
It is curious to me how both Democrats gained and both Republicans lost...however, neither recount changed the result in 2000.
This year, however, it is sooooooo close that a similar change WILL put Chrissy G. in the Governor's mansion, even if by a single digit margin.
Scary stuff.
Posted by: K Shannon on November 18, 2004 10:00 AMVoters who voted Republican in one race are likely to vote Republican in other races, and the same goes for Democrats. In any given election, if a recount shows gains for one candidate from a given political party then all candidates of that political party would likely show gains as well.
I wouldn't expect the numbers to be identical, but I would expect the trends to be similar. That's exactly what you see in the two 2000 recounts: the Democrats gained votes and the Republicans lost votes.
Will this hold true in 2004? Who can say?
Posted by: Nathan Azinger on November 18, 2004 10:17 AMI can only speak for myself, but if Gregoire does end up winning she will have a mandate for her form of governance, i.e. the status quo. For democracy to work, both sides have to respect the outcome of an election. That doesn't mean the losers should compromise their core principles, but they should acknowledge that the people chose the other side and take that into account when formulating their opposition. For example in 2002 I opposed the monorail initiative. It passed narrowly, and I've spent the past two years working with the Monorail Authority to ensure the new system meets the needs of my neighborhood. I would prefer no monorail be built, but I realize that obstructionism won't serve the people of this city.
I think Rossi has an opportunity to do the State some good. Shake things up, try some new ideas…some will work, some won’t – that’s how life is. Clearly there are some big issues to be addressed if we want to remain competitive in this era of globalization. And it will require a unified effort to address these issues. There is no time for arrogance and petty thinking (that goes for all sides). This is a time for coalition building and constructive action. Washington has potential. We’re a bit behind, but we can do it.
But... the citizens of this state also elected a Democratic House and Senate, and it would be irresponsible for the Democratic majority not to be obstructionist when Rossi attempts to implement policy that is contrary to Democratic values. You ask "citizens of the state, to remind our legislators" of Rossi's mandate... but if he has a mandate than so does the Legislature, and that is to be Democrats.
Finally, Rossi's (assumed) victory, like that of every candidate, has at least as much to do with personality as it does with a "program of change," and to ignore that is to ignore the realities of politics. Candidates win or lose, not issues... and Rossi should be congratulated for soft-pedaling a right-wing, pro-business agenda that really is not all that much different in specifics from what John Carlson offered. Yes there were Rossi voters who voted for "change" and "more jobs" but it's a huge leap to say they were voting for massive, Enron-style deregulation, which as far as I can tell is Rossi's primary prescription.
Now I understand your goal is to spin the election results into a "mandate" or "political capital" or whatever you want to call it. But the moment you start believing your own spin is the moment you set the stage for your own defeat. Just look what happened to Tim Eyman.
Posted by: David Goldstein on November 18, 2004 12:17 PMThis morning I got punked - as in PUNKED - by the Gregoire campaign and their 1,001 hackers in which they have the Cantwell phone # the Gregoire phone #. I blogged it HERE.
And now, I get my "West Wing" moment!
COOL! Which life of some miserable aide am I now tormenting in good fun?
DINOCRATS FOR CANTWELL!
(Life is too much fun to do without Dino & Mar-ia!)
Dino Rossi has very clear political vision, understands the art of the possible, and will work with people of goodwill from both parties to get things done. Just watch...
Posted by: Jim King on November 18, 2004 02:27 PMI honestly forgot to add that update here. And thanks for all the traffic - hope you all visit some other parts of my blog. Second largest day of traffic since I put Site Meter on - the first being the inagural day when a ton of Kerry-Edwards supporters stopped by.
Posted by: Josef on November 18, 2004 09:34 PMI honestly forgot to add that update here. And thanks for all the traffic - hope you all visit some other parts of my blog. Second largest day of traffic since I put Site Meter on - the first being the inagural day when a ton of Kerry-Edwards supporters stopped by.
Posted by: Josef on November 18, 2004 09:34 PM