I am officially out of the gubernatorial vote count prediction business.
All of our (simple) mathematical scenarios were based on the (overly charitable) assumption that the underlying data was reliable. For example, if a county reported having, say, 11,000 uncounted ballots, I took it on faith that said county really had something close to 11,000 uncounted ballots and not, say, 21,000 uncounted ballots. Obviously, King County's 10,000 magical mystery ballots that miraculously materialized in Seattle's milkfoam mist today threw that assumption out the window. Garbage in, garbage out, as they say. And the underlying numbers, which are apparently good enough for government work, are not good enough for this blogger to base any more predictions on.
I will continue to run the election return numbers through my spreadsheet and post them on the blog until the vote is certified on Wednesday or whenever. But I'm not imbuing them with anything more than entertainment and surprise value. What all this says about the credibility of our election system, should the favorite daughter of the Democrat machine which produced the 10,000 magical mystery ballots be declared the winner on the basis of these magical ballots, is for another day.
But there may yet be hope. My friend the Republican vote count observer e-mails:
The extra ballots took us completely by surprise, and once again, we spent the day watching workers duplicate provisional ballots at the MBOS facility. Our survey numbers should give a rough preview of what the King County results will look like tomorrow, although it is difficult to knowMagical mystery ballots aside, this friend's earlier reports from Ground Zero were qualitatively correct in forecasting that Gregoire's lead in today's ballots would be substantially smaller than Friday's.
whether or not the ballots duplicated today are representative of all the remaining uncounted ballots.Rossi 246, 42%
Gregoire: 301, 52%
Other 37, 6%Head to head, the numbers are 45% Rossi, 55% Gregoire.
We will be observing once again tomorrow morning.
If anybody has any information about the origin of the 10,000 magical mystery ballots, please let me know.
Posted by Stefan Sharkansky at November 15, 2004 09:35 PM | Email ThisThe provisional ballots introduce new problems- they are voted in one county and often counted in another- counties have no clue how many are coming to them until they arrive- many counties did not include provisionals- even those produced AND counted in their own county- in their estimates UNTIL they had been verified.
King County is not the first to find new ballots- it was happening on a smaller scale in other counties late last week- but this was clearly the single largest batch.
The problem is public confidence in the process. I have worked campaigns in this state for over thirty years, and I have no doubt of the fundamental honesty of this state's elections. There is not a county auditor or election administrator in this state that would countenance vote fraud. But we do have campaign operatives who would overreach, and we have political operatives who will, if it is to their advantage, sow seeds of public unease and mistrust of our system, and will use the simplest and explainable occurrances to misuse the system.
Paul Berendt's fake tears and performance last Friday is a prime example- turning an effort to follow federal law into a deliberate effort to deprive voters of their rights. Paul should have known better, but he has no shame.
The counties, in the future, have to do a better job of reporting real numbers, to maintain voter confidence and block efforts to create mistrust.
The biggest problem is, that is not their chief concern at a time when there is lots of work and little time in which to get it done.
Posted by: Jim King on November 15, 2004 10:04 PM"The counties, in the future, have to do a better job of reporting real numbers, to maintain voter confidence and block efforts to create mistrust."
a) Brendt put on a silly show of emotion that could have been genuine had he called his counterpart and asked him to join in the litigation to get the rejected voters' list (heck, it's also in Vance's interests).
b) I really have serious doubts about the legitimacy of this election at of about 4 PM today UNTIL I hear a darned good explanation of where these ballots came from. It sounds like according to Jim King they're provisional and I hope that's the case for we'd have a thick paper trail. I hope I'm right.
Posted by: Josef on November 15, 2004 10:16 PMWelcome to the Third World.
Posted by: Kevin Shannon on November 15, 2004 10:21 PMReviewing the state's guidlines for recount doesn't offer anyone who wishes for complete verification any comfort either. King County has no obligation to show their ballots to anyone outside of their local government. They do not have to provide proof that any of their ballots are valid. They can just feed them through their talley machine again - even add a few more if they like! No one can challenge them!
The people of Washington State are just not going to let this one slide into the Dems column without a fight! Maybe Eyeman can begin an initiative to force an audit of King County ballots! He won't have to look hard for signatures!
After the Friday 11/05/2004 update report, King County said it had 119,000 ballots left to count.
King County counted 63,439 ballots on Monday 11/08/2004. Here is the link to this story:
http://www.metrokc.gov/elections/news/2004_11_08_2.htm
However, after the Monday 11/08/2004 update report, King County said it had 46,000 ballots left to count.
If the 119,000 ballot figure on 11/05/2004 were correct, then counting 63,439 ballots on 11/08/2004, should have made this figure to be 56,000 ballots.
The difference is 10,000, and this same amount would have been underreported on the Wed 11/10/2004 (21,000 counted, 25,000 left) and Fri 11/12/2004 updates (14,000 counted, 11,000 left)as well.
should the favorite daughter of the Democrat machine which produced the 10,000 magical mystery ballots be declared the winner on the basis of these magical ballots, is for another day.
Hey guys... now who's wearing the aluminum hat?
Posted by: David Goldstein on November 15, 2004 11:02 PMYou are a naive fool if you think the D's in this State are any better than the ones in Chicago or NY or Philadelphia. They are likely manufacturing new ballots as I type this note.
And, with apologists like you around, they will likely get away with it.
If I am ultimately proven wrong here and Rossi takes the oath of office like he should in January, I will happily apologize to you.
But I'm not holding my breath.
Posted by: Kevin Shannon on November 15, 2004 11:08 PMAlex
Posted by: Alessandro Fiaschi on November 15, 2004 11:12 PMWow! does this sound familiar! Over in New Mexico the Dems "discover" boxes of Just.Enough.Votes that have been "overlooked" right after the numbers of a close election are announced. Happens a bunch with elections involving local NM judges, I have been told, and if you remember, happened in the 2000 presidential election as well. Think Gore won by 367 votes or thereabouts. A box of votes, it was reported, had been misplaced. And just enough to give state to Gore. Remarkable.
Here's hoping you good folks in WA have better luck. Your diligent work following all this and recording it for us interested viewers in other states is much appreciated.
- jbas.
If FL 2000 is any guide, the D's will do their best to disqualify military ballots.
Posted by: Kevin Shannon on November 15, 2004 11:39 PMI have been involved for 10 years in WA politics at tbe grass roots level and have seen how the D's and their union thug allies operate. As a result, I have little faith in their integrity.
As noted before, I will admit my error if wrong...I wonder if you would do the same?
Posted by: Kevin Shannon on November 15, 2004 11:43 PMAnd soldiers, sailors, and airmen can't afford the cost of housing in King County, or the commute to the bases. There undoubtedly are military from King County overseas, and if registered at home, their ballots would come here- but most military tend to register where they are actually living, not where they are from.
As for Mr. Shannon- If I am wrong, I will be fighting overtime in Olympia to defend small businesses and keep state parks open- I am really counting on a Rossi victory to give me a breather. And I know Logan- who is a Republican- and have great confidence in his integrity. You have yet to produce any evidence for your dark conspiracies. And be careful about referring to union members as thugs- those union members deliver the best Republican victories, and NO union member likes references to thugs.
Posted by: Jim King on November 16, 2004 12:11 AMWell, thank God. This was getting simply ridiculous.
I won't comment on election fraud, except to say that if there's any fraud going on (not here), it's Republicans suppressing the vote in states like Florida, not the other way around. It seems the GOP thinks the best way to take the media's attention off such things is to accuse the Democrats of doing them. Pitiful.
What's the matter with people today? Haven't you ever heard of a mistake? There's all this outrage floating around: how DARE King County give an incorrect number! Well...they are the most populous county in the state. They have a lot of ballot counting to do. And mistakes, with issuingestimates, happen. They just do. That's why people shouldn't be in the prediction business. It just lands you in trouble when it goes the other way.
In the Seattle Times this morning, Dean Logan was quoted as saying:
"It was just an estimate," Logan said of the projection that the county would tally only 11,000 votes today and tomorrow. The estimate was off by 10,000.
Other elections officials spoke up in Logan's defense:
State Elections Director Nick Handy said it is difficult to project the number of absentee and provisional votes. After the September primary, he said, the number of those ballots turned out to be double what counties had forecast.
"Every county in the state is changing their estimate every day because that's the nature of the process," Handy said.
Pierce County Auditor Pat McCarthy said King County's experience illustrates how difficult it is to project the total vote. "If you go too high, people say, 'What happened to those ballots?' You tend to go lower because you don't want that kind of thing to happen."
They were just estimates, folks. No need to be outraged. Just keep track of the real thing.
Thanks for being the voice of reason. I'm now more convinced that the election isn't being all that toyed with.
Posted by: Josef on November 16, 2004 06:46 AMFor those who don't want to read the whole thing, here's a brief summary. In states like Washington, the main problem of vote fraud comes not from party officials but from individuals who, acting by themselves, vote illegally. We have changed our laws in ways that make it easier for them to do so -- which means we now have more fraudlulent votes.
(On a related matter: Although most Washington elections, from what I know, are clean (excluding individual fraud), there were reports from Pierce county that suggested fraud to me several years ago. If any of you know more about that, I would be interested in hearing from you.)
Posted by: Jim Miller on November 16, 2004 06:52 AMThank you, Jim, for posting such an excellent analysis of the situation. Not that it makes me feel better (it doesn't), but at least I have some rudimentary understanding.
Posted by: iconoclast on November 16, 2004 07:40 AMUnfortunately, this poster is typical of a person who believes their side is always right; the other side is always wrong.
Yesterday on the news, republicans talked of lawsuits. The Dems already sued. It's politics -- you don't get what you want, and it's close, you sue. Doesn't matter if your an R or a D.
The sad part is the supposed moral highground people take claiming the other side is unfair in their pursuits -- yet they themselves do the exact same things.
It's a function of our system. But the blame game (from boths sides) really really must stop.
Posted by: Ray on November 16, 2004 07:49 AMWe all know the state of the Public Schrool System in this state. Its not that hard to believe that someone subtracted 63439 from 119000 and came up with 46000 instead of 55561.
Its a close race, the laws of large numbers are not in force and we will see swings both ways. We'll probably also have a recount, no matter which way it turns out.
God willing Rossi will be there in January.
ed.
Oh my. One's deity is not only introduced into local politics -- he/she is presumed to take sides!
If Rossi also feels that his election will have been ordained by the supreme being, what have we wrought????
I always thought the almighty wouldn't care which team won a football game (though players presume it's so)...but with politics here we get into the history books--which clearly shows infusing religion into politics yields destruction in every sense.
Say it ain't so!
Posted by: Ray on November 16, 2004 08:33 AMWHY EVEN HAVE PROVISIONAL BALLOTS???
Look at all of our taxpayer dollars being pi$$ed away, and this election tally running weeks long, just because we can't tell people to VOTE WHERE YOU'RE SUPPOSED TO VOTE!
This parental hand-holding and political correctness is not only costing us money, it could damn well cost Rossi the election. How many homeless people did Jim McDermott pay to fill out ballots for Kerry and Gregoire?
B.S., I say!
Posted by: Larry on November 16, 2004 08:51 AMYou are right in that I have no direct evidence. My job keeps me from spending too much time sluething about these electoral mysteries. I just have my own experiences and observations of how D's & unions have operated in the past. They don't play nice.
It'll be interesting to see how many ballots King Co. 'finds' today. If it's enough to get Chrissy Gregoire in there, you will indeed be busy defending your business as well as your personal wallet.
Posted by: Kevin Shannon on November 16, 2004 08:56 AMThe Democrats control this state, and will find ANY way to keep the governor mansion in Democratic hands.
If you are gullible enough to believe that Democrats in this state are going to play fair, you will get the governor you deserve.
In 1994, Ellen Sauerbray was poised to unseat the donk governor of Maryland, Parris Glendening. Then, all of the sudden, a miraculous flood of votes came in from Baltimore, handing the governorship to Glendening.
Subsequent investigation showed that the number of votes coming from Baltimore exceeded the number of voters + absentee ballots that were recorded in Baltimore on election day and furthermore exceeded that number by almost the same number as the margin of Glendening's "victory" (5,832 and 5,993 respectively).
Details here: http://groups.msn.com/bushwatchers/taskforce.msnw
Posted by: Matt J Kurlander on November 16, 2004 09:39 AM"Oh my. One's deity is not only introduced into local politics -- he/she is presumed to take sides."
Oh, come off it, Ray. It's a figure of speech, for God sakes. Oops, did I mention God? My apologies. We theocratic, Bible-thumping Republicans just can't help ourselves.
Posted by: John Archer on November 16, 2004 10:05 AMThat's not my experience. I was a voting assistance officer in more than one Air Force unit prior to my retirement just a few years ago, and I can tell you that was emphatically not the case with respect to the airmen I served in that capacity. The overwhelming majority of military members vote in their homes of record, and do not reregister every time they are transferred to a new posting.
Posted by: TPetey on November 16, 2004 10:05 AMhttp://www.komotv.com/news/story.asp?ID=34000
Apparently the D's didn't like the result in Grays Harbor Co., so now they will recount it so that they can get the result they want.
Figures.
Posted by: Kevin Shannon on November 16, 2004 10:27 AMMy respectful 2 cents.
Posted by: Josef on November 16, 2004 10:27 AMVote fraud in Washington is very hard to detect because it almost always occurs in the absentee ballots. It is far easier for someone who wants to commit vote fraud to either falsely register (recieving multiple absentee ballots from different locales, or registering with false identities), or to either steal legitimate absentee ballots, or to obtain absentee ballots "legitimately" on another's behalf but to then vote those ballots for those individuals (ever wonder how many alzheimer patients vote in elections?), than it is to commit fraud at the polls. You have to be pretty good at faking signatures, or you have to have successfully registered falsely without getting caught (not impossible) and be willing to actually appear at multiple locations in order to commit fraud at the polls. And an organized effort to do this would take far more time and effort than to commit absentee ballot fraud.
Provisional ballots are actually a great mechanism for preventing vote fraud. Most local election officials are diligent about verifying provisional ballots, and the campaigns have local attorneys who volunteer to look over the shoulders of canvassing boards who make final determinations. (I myself volunteer in this capacity.)
The biggest problem is that Washington is moving, slowly but surely, to a vote-by-mail system. Having Oregon next door -- with its 100% vote-by-mail elections -- puts a bit of pressure on us. But the convenience of voting at home is outweighed by something most voters never consider -- the far greater opportunities to commit vote fraud through the mail.
If any of you have a real interest in this topic, check out John Fund's new book, Stealing Elections.
Posted by: Anonymous on November 16, 2004 10:28 AMWHY EVEN HAVE PROVISIONAL BALLOTS???
Look at all of our taxpayer dollars being pi$$ed away, and this election tally running weeks long, just because we can't tell people to VOTE WHERE YOU'RE SUPPOSED TO VOTE!
This parental hand-holding and political correctness is not only costing us money, it could damn well cost Rossi the election. How many homeless people did Jim McDermott pay to fill out ballots for Kerry and Gregoire?
===========
Well, GEE. I don't know. Maybe it's because EVERYONE IN THIS COUNTRY OVER 18 IS LEGALLY ENTITLED THE RIGHT TO VOTE!? You think voting is some priviledge for the wealthy? It shows the true nature of the GOP. You've just exposed the raw side of what your party thinks. And it's not a surprise. If a voter's status is questioned, they should still be allowed to vote. Provisional ballots make a lot of sense. It's about protecting voters' rights.
And yes, they could DAMN well end up costing Rossi the election. Too bad.
Take a look at this:
KOMO: http://www.komotv.com/news/story.asp?id=34000
GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY - Grays Harbor County will have to re-count all of its ballots because of a problem with a computer reporting system, The Daily World of Aberdeen reported Tuesday.
County Auditor Vern Spatz said the re-count will likely add to Democrat Christine Gregoire's total votes for governor.
Statewide, at last count, Gregoire was 158 votes ahead of Republican Dino Rossi, out of 2.8 million ballots cast. The deadline for counties to finish tallying ballots is Wednesday.
"We do not have to rescan them, we could just rerun the report, but we don't want to have anybody have any doubts about this election," Spatz said. "We're going to take the time and effort to rescan every ballot in our office and generate new totals. It takes away any question."
On Monday, Rossi led Gregoire by 231 votes in Grays Harbor County. There are around 30,000 ballots to be counted, but the exact number of ballots is now in question.
Posted by: Jenny on November 16, 2004 10:50 AMWe should get rid of provisional ballots ASAP.
Posted by: Kevin Shannon on November 16, 2004 11:23 AMWell, GEE. I don't know. Maybe it's because EVERYONE IN THIS COUNTRY OVER 18 IS LEGALLY ENTITLED THE RIGHT TO VOTE!? You think voting is some priviledge for the wealthy? It shows the true nature of the GOP. You've just exposed the raw side of what your party thinks. And it's not a surprise. If a voter's status is questioned, they should still be allowed to vote. Provisional ballots make a lot of sense. It's about protecting voters' rights.
Everyone is entitled to vote? Illegal aliens? Dick Tracy, and other made up voters are allowed to vote as well? Should we count the votes of dead people? LEGAL VOTERS ARE ALLOWED TO VOTE. Not made up people, nor dead people, nor illegal people.
Priviledge of the wealthy? Where did you pull that one out of? Why is the Republicans called the party of the rich when in fact it's the Democrats that have even more money that the Repubs? Who are the richest Senators? Democrats. Kerry and Edwards weren't called the richest ticket ever just because of their smiles.
How hard is it to vote at your correct polling place? I'm looking at my Voter Regristation Card and it tells me EXACTLY where I need to vote. No if ands or buts.
The thing that really ticks me off is the fact that once again King County will determine which way this election goes. It's always about them and we all know that they vote Democrat 100% of the time. Dino carries 32 of 39 counties, Greg can only muster support in just 7 counties! but because of just one county the election just may fall into her lap. It's time for the Republicans to start making some very serious in roads into that county. We can't have the same county year after year deciding that the rest of the state doesn't matter...
Posted by: KLRMNKY on November 16, 2004 11:25 AMI would sternly rebuke your diatribe, but KLRMNKY beat me to much of it.
You think that if a voter's status is questioned, they should still be allowed to vote? Maybe, if the question of their status is ANSWERED.
Everyone in this country over 18 is legally entitled to the right to vote? HOGWASH. You cannot vote if you are a convicted felon. You cannot vote if you are not a US citizen. Furthermore, if you are not a resident of the state of Washington, you may not vote in Washington.
See, Jenny - it's all about protecting voters rights, like you said. What you forget is that I'M A VOTER - and YOU'RE A VOTER. We must protect OUR rights against people who would flood the system with illegitimate ballots. If you vote for Gregoire, and there is an illegal ballot submitted and counted for Rossi, guess what? YOU have just been disenfranchised.
Wake up and smell the coffee.
Exactly where did I say that 'voting is a privilege (please learn how to spell, Jenny) for the wealthy'? I did mention the homeless. Are you saying that all homeless people are poor? How DARE you be so insensitive! You're such a close-minded classist bigot! You think there are no wealthy homeless people? What about Howard Hughes?? What about John Kerry? He's wealthy, and HE CAN'T LIVE IN THE WHITE HOUSE! BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Posted by: Larry on November 16, 2004 12:18 PMYou're probably one of these people who still thinks Al Gore actually won.
Posted by: EyeDoc on November 16, 2004 12:53 PMSorry for the error.
Posted by: Eye Doc on November 16, 2004 12:55 PM