Ballot Count Update

A friend who's been working as a Republican observer in the King County ballot counting operation e-mails:

I have good news: based on a survey we took today of duplicated provisional ballots, (595 sample size, 348 G, 202 R, 46 Other), it appears that the percentage of votes for Rossi has improved slightly from yesterday. In essence, this is an unscientific preview of the results that will be posted Monday, although tomorrow's numbers might still swing the results that will be posted that day.

As for the "correct" provisional ballots (those that can be put through the machine since the precinct is correct), we do not have a representative sample, although we have observed that several strong Republican areas were represented in the batch, so I am not worried about surprises. My guess is that roughly half the remaining provisional ballots will be duplicated, and half will be "correct".

It does not appear that the remaining unreported provisional ballots from King County are disproportionately from Seattle, which would be the only scenario I can imagine in which the remaining tally might possibly swing into the 70+% range for Gregoire.

I'll note that his numbers "595 sample size, 348 G, 202 R, 46 Other", give Gregoire a 24.5% lead, as compared to Friday's 26.7% lead. It's implausible that she could win without a substantial widening of Friday's lead.

Posted by Stefan Sharkansky at November 13, 2004 11:17 PM | Email This