Sound Politics: Why the Monorail will lose

September 29, 2004

Why the Monorail will lose

Two articles in the newspapers yesterday on the upcoming Monorail revote reveal why the Recall will succeed and the Monorail will go down in flames.

The Seattle Times article, "Who's behind "Monorail Recall"" actually says more about the pro-Monorail people than the recall supporters. The Monomaniacs are shown to be silly and politically bankrupt:

"Unlike our opposition, the effort is broadly supported among so many people and groups, instead of Eyman-loving, anti-tax people and greedy downtown developers," said campaign manager Cindi Laws, a monorail board member

Invoking Eyman in a debate about Seattle politics is the local equivalent of Godwin's Law. Reasonable people can disagree about the the initiatives that Eyman has promoted, but here in Seattle the prevailaing hippie-dippie political monoculture has demonized Eyman beyond any connection to reality. If the only argument you can make about your fellow citizens who, like the Monorail Recall supporters, simply want to see their taxes used more effectively, is that they're "Eyman-like" -- then it's an indication that you have no real arguments on your side and you have lost the debate.

The P-I article, "Pelz criticizes monorail's assumption on bus service", also gives an important reason why the Monorail is doomed. Surprisingly, the article doesn't mention this, but Pelz is a member of the Sound Transit board of directors. The SMP and Sound Transit are rival agencies. ST views the SMP as a threat to its turf. I assume Pelz is correct that Monorail ridership projections are unrealistic in the absence of significant enhancements to bus service, which will cost a great deal of money and aren't likely to happen. Nevertheless, Pelz' real agenda is one of bureaucratic power. Sound Transit wants to kill the Monorail and Sound Transit is better funded and has more friends in Seattle than the Monorail does. Tough going Mono-dudes, that's the way the world works.

Posted by Stefan Sharkansky at September 29, 2004 11:38 AM | Email This

Comments

1. I can understand being against both ST-light rail & the Monorail. I can understand disbelief over the route. Or the pricing, or reliability. (And the belief that the Monorail is going down.)

But why on Earth would anyone _prefer_ a regional transportation plan based on light rail with ST in charge? They've set them selves up as _completely_ unimpeachable via the special gerrymandered district. Even a statewide initiative hasn't pulled the plug. Which, in effect, means stopping Sound Transit is impossible. And their goal isn't the current boondoggle-in-progress, but a $50 billion around-the-lake + city loop setup.

The same screwy Ballard-downtown-West Seattle sort of line used to be part of ST's "Second Phase" business, so the 'route choice' is just being delayed. And if 1.5$B for the Monorail on that route looks pricey, light rail anywhere near that same route will cause howls. Two bridge crossings, unless the train can't make the grade -> two tunnels.

The other aspect that's baffling is from the cost-of-operations standpoint. Even fully utilized light rail cars would involve a heavy per-person subsidy. 5$ per person per trip being the low estimate I recall. The Monorail folk's 'usage numbers' may be bogus for all I know - but they aren't assuming "full utilization" either.

"Gosh, someday in the distant future when we _do_ have the population to fully utilize this, it will only cost us $5 per person per trip"

compared to

"Gosh, someday in the distant future when we _do_ have the population to fully utilize this, and we'll break even well before that"

Neither of these things is 'Conservative' without rock solid ridership numbers and a proven need for the infrastructure. And public sentiment is necessary as well. But I don't see this as 'the more conservative/fiscally responsible' approach winning.

Posted by: Al on September 29, 2004 12:41 PM

2. I agree, Al. Sound Transit is another ridiculous boondoggle. I often support the idea of competition between government agencies for funding and clientele. In this case I do not. I don't think it would do any good. I'd like to see both agencies shut down and the money used for more effective forms of transportation. The kindest thing I can say about Sound Transit v. the Monorail is that having one shitty multi-billion-dollar transit agency is not as bad as having two shitty multi-billion-dollar transit agencies.

Posted by: Stefan Sharkansky on September 29, 2004 01:56 PM

3. I still thinking you're operating from a severe lack of information about the monorail, Stefan.

Pelz is an idiot when it comes to the monorail. He hates the monorail and has for ages. He's making up headlines because he wants to run for City Council next year and take out one of the pro-folks.

Don't you think Paul Tolliver, former DIRECTOR of Metro Transit and current Monorail Board member, has a much better understanding and he's not unduly concerned about the ridership numbers.

The current numbers are not based on the rosy projections that Pelz is citing for his report.

Where I DO agree with you is on the pathetic state of the campaign against the "recall." The trouble is there's no stand to be taken by any monorail supporters without the agency releasing details on the Cascadia bid.

If we lose this election battle, the blame will be squarely on the shoulder of Joel Horn.

Posted by: Michael on September 29, 2004 04:36 PM

4. Michael, Stefan, and chums. I don't think our labeling people and name-calling of any flavor is what matters in determining the course of the Seattle Monorail Project. I think more transparency on the part of the authority would be extremely valuable (starting with keeping the web site current -- there are too many events that have passed and promises made for which there are no reports). I also think it is very important for the authority and its supporters to avoid raising the drawbridges and seeing itself as beseiged. We do, after all, have to work it out and keep working it out for a sustained period of time.

As someone who is very pleased to support the monorail initiative, I think we should simply keep replacing heat with light: "Hugging the Monorail: Counting Noses." I also have my own meaningless predictions of how this will go. But they'll be easy to measure against real life as the time comes.

Posted by: orcmid on September 30, 2004 10:54 AM