A neck-and-neck race for Governor of Washington State, and two somewhat conflicting polls on Kerry-Bush in WA. First, Governor: A SurveyUSA poll of 621 likely voters, conducted Sept. 19-21, gives Democrat Christine Gregoire 47 percent to Republican Dino Rossi's 46 percent. With a 4 percent margin of error, that's a dead heat.
"Kerry Cements Lead in Washington State" blares the USA Today headline. AP writer David Ammons cites an Ipsos-Public Affairs poll of 406 registered voters, conducted Sept. 17-20, showing Kerry ahead of Bush %51 percent to 42%.
Back to that pesky SurveyUSA Poll, done for Seattle and Spokane TV. It calls the Kerry-Bush contest here "tight." 51-46 Kerry, a spread only one more than the margin of error. Kerry's spread in WA was 8 points 5 weeks ago, now just 5. Same sample as for Rossi-Gregoire: 621 likely voters, a much better measure than merely the registered voters in the Ipsos poll. And, the SurveyUSA poll was more recent, Sept. 19-21, versus Sept. 17-20 for Ipsos.
The Survey USA poll also asked the same sample group about the U.S. Senate race. Results: Patty Murray (D) over (R) George Nethercutt 53-41; but Murray's spread was 14 points 5 weeks ago, now 8.
In the race to replace Gregoire as Washington AG; (R) Rob McKenna, 46; (D) Deborah Senn 42.
Cross-posted at Rosenblog.
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