September 10, 2004
Blinded By Bile

UPDATE, 9/11/04: The ad has been pulled, wisely.

An independent political group called the Voter Education Committee, which includes the attorney for Washington state's GOP and two officials of the prominent state business group United For Washington, today finally agreed to list the donors behind their TV attack ads directed at Democratic candidate for Attorney General Deborah Senn. But in the numerous articles about the donor disclosure kerfuffle, there's been scant discussion of the real issue: the GOP- and business-connected independent committee's fixation on paying back Senn for her combative, regulation-heavy reign as State Insurance Commissioner is plain dumb politics.

It's simple. Senn's Democratic primary opponent, former Seattle City Attorney Mark Sidran, who almost won election as Seattle mayor, is the kind of Democrat even Republicans can love. I should know, I've voted for him myself, and am tempted to choose a Democratic ballot in our state's new strait jacket primary system just to help him out (that way I could also cast a vote for Ron Sims in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, who'd be much more likely to lose against Republican Dino Rossi than the other Democrat, establishment mannequin Christine Gregoire).

Sidran is smart, politically incorrect, big on law and order, and in his mayoral run against victor Greg Nickels, he articulated beautifully the dangers of Seattle's myopic, insular liberalism.

True, getting tough on pissing, drunk or drugged vagrants isn't an issue for the Attorney General, nor is Seattle's socio-political personality. But Sidran is a well-respected politician and experienced public sector attorney; while attorney Senn is widely and correctly perceived as a faux-populist, grandstanding, shrill, self-interested party hack. (I've seen her speak, and I'm sorry friends, she IS shrill, and not because she's female...she's just about the most off-puttting public official I've ever heard utter a word).

By aiming to take out Senn in the primary with a $600,000 barrage of "informational" ads, one of which has now been deemed by the state disclosure commission as an assault on Senn's character, the GOP- and business-tied independent committee is helping Sidran.

Sidran is likely to have far broader appeal statewide than Senn, especially after several years of nasty headlines (here's one example) Senn earned as Insurance Commissioner.

At this juncture, Sidran, despite having less statewide name recognition than Senn, may well be a better bet to defeat whichever Republican wins that party's primary for AG (King County Council Member Rob McKenna, or lawyer Mike Vaska). A Columbian editorial last month noted a recent Evans-McDonough poll showed Sidran ahead of Senn in the Demo primary by several points and many voters undecided. Sidran hasn't worn out his welcome with statewide voters. Senn, who despite her state officeholder past, lost in the 2000 Democratic primary for U.S. Senator to Puget Sounder Maria Cantwell, quite possibly has.

Memo to the Voter Education Committee: payback's nice, fellahs, but beware of the Law of Unintended Consequences. Senn is probably just the sort of "damaged goods" candidate you actually want to see up against Republican McKenna or Vaska; the more electable Sidran isn't. Save your "informational" hit pieces against Senn for post-primary, if necessary. Assuming, that is, you really want a Republican for AG.

Cross-posted at Rosenblog.

Posted by Matt Rosenberg at September 10, 2004 03:02 PM | Email This
Comments
1. Strangely, I believe the hit piece will increase Senn's chances of surviving the primary. First, she couldn't buy this much exposure, and second, even though the exposure is bad, the press has routinely condemned the ad and party loyalists will likely rally around Senn.

Posted by: Tim Ford on September 13, 2004 09:14 AM
2. I suspect Tim is right and that might have been the cynical purpose of the manoeuvre all along.

Senn is too weak to have much of a chance in the general election. So why not pull a stunt that simultaneously boosts her chances with the Democrat primary voters while also damaging her chances with the mainstream general election voter?

Just a theory.

Posted by: Stefan Sharkansky on September 13, 2004 02:28 PM
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